Mats Hummels: Imagining Life After Selling Borussia Dortmund Great
Try to imagine life for Borussia Dortmund if they part ways with German centre-back Mats Hummels, 26, one of their most valuable players.
Here is a summary of Hummels' dilemma and the current market situation for centre-backs.
Danke, Breno
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"If Bayern Munich had not bought Breno ... I would not have left," Hummels said, per Transfermarkt.de (h/t Jonathan Walsh at Vavel). "I was practically forced towards happiness. It was the best thing that could have happened to me."
When Bayern Munich scouted Breno, they probably came to the same conclusion as BBC Sport's South American football reporter Tim Vickery: "Looked pure class in his first season last year with Sao Paulo."
Breno was a cash cow, hence why 30 per cent of his playing rights were owned by third-party Sonda investment, which made around €3.6/£2.6 million when Bayern Munich signed him, per Nilo Effori at SNR Denton.
That is the context behind Bayern Munich ploughing money into Breno, seemingly a can't-miss prospect, while discarding Hummels, who may have been projected as another Markus Husterer.
"Ottmar Hitzfeld also didn't really need me at Bayern Munich... then Jurgen Klinsmann took over and he didn't want me either," Hummels said, per Freddie Rockenhaus at the International Bundesliga Magazine (h/t Bundesliga.com). "That's why I was loaned to Borussia Dortmund."
On paper, Breno was a bigger talent than Hummels.
Though possibly sharing traits with Amanda Bynes and Angus T Jones, Breno made it because of his precocious talent, but his undoing was an inability to be a professional.
"I got really down and, on the day of the accident, I received news [I needed another operation]," Breno said in January after rejoining Sao Paulo, per Jack Lang at ESPN FC. "I drank, passed out, and it just happened."
Accident and it being euphemisms for arson.
"The time in prison has been very hard for me," Breno said in 2013, per Tom McGowan at CNN. "I'm a little nervous."
Breno played 16 Bundesliga games for Bayern Munich.
Hummels led Borussia Dortmund to successive Bundesliga titles (2010/11, 2011/12), participated in a UEFA Champions League final (2013) and helped Germany win a FIFA World Cup (2014).
What aided Borussia Dortmund was a willingness to trust Hummels.
What cost Bayern Munich was being unable to identify the disproportionate intangibles which in retrospect heavily favoured one prospect—Hummels was Peyton Manning, Breno was Ryan Leaf.
"São Paulo's arsonist/centre-back Breno says that three years in the clink made him "more mature" pic.twitter.com/28YnesKkqe
— jon cotterill (@Pitacodogringo) March 25, 2015"
Does Hummels Want out?
FIFA World Cup winning player (1974) and manager (1990) Franz Beckenbauer has implored Hummels to leave for the Premier League.
"At 26, Hummels is at the best age to make the move to England," Beckenbauer said, per Bild (h/t Tom Adams at Eurosport). "I can understand his thinking well."
Beckenbauer's legends card is rated 93 on FIFA—his Schadenfreude level is 99.
Of course Beckenbauer, who wears Bayern Munich-tinted glasses, wants Hummels to leave Borussia Dortmund.
It will bring closure to how wrong Bayern Munich were when they punted on Breno and forced Hummels out.
Despite injuries, having to deal with the day-in, day-out transfer rumours and Borussia Dortmund going through a rough patch, Hummels' return has ensured the club will probably avoid relegation.
Hummels has been a dominant presence in the air, winning 6.6 headers per 90 minutes.
On the ground, Hummels has been proficient in winning back the ball 85 times (41 tackles, 44 interceptions) and conceding 12 fouls in 18 Bundesliga games.
According to WhoScored for Bundesliga centre-backs with over 15 starts, Hummels is the second-highest-rated player behind Naldo.
Still, has the statute of limitations in terms of Hummels' loyalty to Borussia Dortmund run out?
From Bundesliga winners to contenders to flirting with relegation and now at mid-table, the instability at Borussia Dortmund has shaped Hummels' non-committal attitude.
"There's no particular tendency one way or the other. It's just thoughts going through my mind. It will all become clearer in the coming weeks," Hummels said in April, per Sky Sports. "That doesn't mean that I am leaving, it just means I'm reflecting."
Raphael Honigstein at the Guardian speculated Hummels was creating leverage to demand a salary increase, presumably to compensate for a season that is a write-off by his world-class standards.
Why Borussia Dortmund Are Winners
Statistically, Hummels is solid, but when you watch him, you know he is not playing at the same level he should be.
It is reflected in how he has been subjectively ranked in the Bundesliga.
In terms of the top performing Bundesliga centre-backs this season, Hummels is not in the discussion.
- Martin Stranzl (Borussia Monchengladbach).
- Jerome Boateng (Bayern Munich).
- Naldo (Wolfsburg).
- Tony Jantschke (Borussia Monchengladbach).
- Kevin Wimmer (Koln).
- Niklas Sule (Hoffenheim).
- Emir Spahic (Bayer Leverkusen).
- Omer Toprak (Bayer Leverkusen).
- Benedikt Howedes (Schalke 04).
- Ragnar Klavan (Augsburg).
- Pavel Krmas (Freiburg).
- Alvaro Dominguez (Borussia Monchengladbach).
- Niko Bungert (Mainz).
- Ermin Bicakcic (Hoffenheim).
- Sokratis (Borussia Dortmund).
- Dominic Maroh (Koln).
- Jan-Ingwer Callsen-Bracker (Augsburg).
- Uwe Hunemeier (Paderborn).
- Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund).
- Martin Stranzl (Borussia Monchengladbach).
- Jerome Boateng (Bayern Munich).
- Naldo (Wolfsburg).
- Niklas Sule (Hoffenheim).
- Benedikt Howedes (Schalke 04).
- Niko Bungert (Mainz).
- Omer Toprak (Bayer Leverkusen).
- Dominic Maroh (Koln).
- Kevin Wimmer (Koln).
- Alvaro Dominguez (Borussia Monchengladbach).
- Ragnar Klavan (Augsburg).
- Robin Knoche (Wolfsburg).
- Sokratis (Borussia Dortmund).
- Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund).
The positive for Borussia Dortmund is Hummels' stock has not taken a direct hit if you are following the transfer rumours.
Chelsea "can easily fork out" €50.8/£37 million, per The Telegraph.
Manchester United are monitoring Hummels' situation and will be prepared to bid if he is available, per Samuel Luckhurst at the Manchester Evening News.
For a club looking to sell, it is ideal for the asset to be overvalued rather than undervalued.
This gives Borussia Dortmund the option of selling Hummels at an outrageously high fee because of how inflated centre-backs are on the transfer market.
- David Luiz | Chelsea → Paris Saint-Germain: €49.5/£39.5 million (27 years old; 2014).
- Eliaquim Mangala | Porto → Manchester City: €40.1/£32 million (23 years old; 2014).
- Mehdi Benatia | Roma → Bayern Munich: €30/£23.8 million (27 years old; 2014).
- Dejan Lovren | Southampton → Liverpool: €25.2/£20 million (25 years old; 2014).
Hummels has a more impressive CV and is a better footballer than Luiz, Mangala, Benatia and Lovren.
The No. 1 option for Borussia Dortmund is to persuade Hummels, whose contract expires in 2017, to stay.
If Hummels wants out, Borussia Dortmund need to inflate his transfer stock to around €68.7/£50 million, which is doable—who expected Luiz to be a €49.5/£39.5 million-valued defender?
No sane, rational-thinking person, except those in charge at Paris Saint-Germain.
The €7/£5.1 billion Premier League TV rights deal will create a no-logic zone for uber-rich English clubs.
"I could have had [a release] clause, but I made a conscious decision against it," Hummels said in 2014, per Transfermarkt.de (h/t Spox via Stephan Uersfeld at ESPN FC). "When I extended my contract, I wanted to set an example."
By not including a moderate buyout clause, Hummels has ensured Borussia Dortmund will win out in the summer transfer window if he decides it's over at BVB.
When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.com.
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