Assembling Milwaukee Bucks' Ideal Playoff Rotation
Jason Kidd has made a significant impact during his first season as head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks. The team has made a remarkable turnaround and, with a 38-39 record, is primed for its first playoff appearance in two years.
However, since the All-Star break and acquisition of Michael Carter-Williams, the Bucks have struggled to put any type of consistency together. Still, the fact that this team is hovering around the .500 mark and in playoff contention is quite the accomplishment given the team's youth and lack of a true, go-to scorer.
And while Kidd has juggled his rotations and starting lineup all season long, it will be vital he come up with something more concrete when the first round of the playoffs begin. Certainly things may fluctuate depending on who the Bucks end up facing, but developing some level of consistency will help the team continue forging chemistry while giving the players a specific role to prepare for.
What, then, is the ideal starting lineup and rotation for Kidd to utilize come playoff time?
Starting Lineup
The laundry list of positives that have occurred since the Carter-Williams trade is not a long one. However, one of them is the fact that there has been stability within the starting lineup.
Kidd has gone to a preferred lineup of Carter-Williams, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia to start games. And despite the fact this lineup has produced just a 7-12 record, it has been effective to an extent.
For starters, this lineup has proven to be pretty pesky when it comes to defense. With Carter-Williams, Antetokounmpo and Middleton, this lineup is very lengthy. And one area in which it has thrived is steals. This combination has averaged 2.3 more steals than opponents per 100 possessions. With backcourt players as long as the aforementioned trio, it's clear this lineup is pesky on the perimeter, which is significant given the lack of a shot-blocker in Ilyasova and Pachulia.
Defense, which has been a staple of the Bucks all season long, will be vital to playing a competitive first-round series or even pulling off an upset.
And that's what this lineup provides from a game's onset.
Offensively, the Bucks have produced better lineups than this one—especially earlier in the year—but, thanks in large part to Ilyasova's surge, it has been a lineup that is 4.2 points better than opponents per 100 possessions.
Both the 27-year-old Turk and Middleton can provide consistent, efficient scoring for the Bucks and that, perhaps, is the biggest issue facing this team.
Ilyasova has averaged 15.0 points since the beginning of March while Middleton has arguably been the team's most efficient and consistent scorer since the start of February, averaging 16.8 points on 45.2 percent shooting.
Players coming alive offensively is exactly what this team needs as the postseason approaches and the success of Ilyasova and Middleton in that role is a major positive.
With Antetokounmpo scoring well recently and Carter-Williams coming off a 30-point game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, this lineup may be starting to click from an offensive perspective and, if they can put it together on both ends, will be a formidable threat in the first round.
Given that this combination of players seems to finally be building solid chemistry—on both ends—it's only appropriate that they get the lion's share of minutes now through the however far the Bucks may end up advancing in the playoffs.
Bench Play
One of the strong points for the Bucks in 2014-15 has, without question, been the depth of their bench and the quality of play they have gotten from those role players.
In fact, according to HoopsStats.com, the Bucks rank No. 7 when it comes points per game from their bench and, with a field-goal percentage of 45.9, have the league's second-most efficient bench when it comes to knocking down shots.
Led by veteran O.J. Mayo—who is scoring 11.2 points per game—the bench averages 37.5 points. As a team, the Bucks have managed to score 97.7 points per game on the year. Doing a little simple math, the bench comprises 38.8 percent of the overall offense.
Of course, that's just half of the success story.
For as good as the bench has been offensively, it has been equally impressive on defense against opponents' benches, allowing opposing second units to score just 31.3 points per game, which ranks No. 3 in the NBA.
From Mayo to the likes of Jared Dudley, Jerryd Bayless and John Henson, the second unit has often been able to provide a spark or maintain whatever lead the opening unit may have built up.
Pairing up Middleton with the bench combo of Bayless, Dudley, Henson and Mayo has been a particularly beneficial lineup for Kidd to utilize.
In just under 65 minutes of playing time together—which is a decent sample size—that lineup has scored 17.7 points better than opponents per 100 possessions and one that shoots the ball very well. Looking at the players who compose this unit, that shouldn't be too surprising.
Clearly, the bench has established itself.
So, then, how often should Kidd go to those players and, when he does, how many minutes should they be playing?
Frankly, not a whole lot needs to be changed from what the Bucks have been doing all season long as far as the bench goes.
Routinely getting each Dudley, Mayo, Bayless and Henson around 20 minutes per game should be a good starting point and, depending on the performances of those in the starting unit, should stay within a few minutes of that number.
Without a true, go-to scorer, the Bucks benefit from turning to multiple faces to cover their scoring load and have done so all year. Now is not the time to change that.
Conclusion
Slowly, but surely, since trading Brandon Knight for Carter-Williams, Coach Kidd and the Bucks have been establishing the lineup they envision moving forward with. The starting lineup hasn't fluctuated much since then and the bench has remained consistently effective.
Despite struggling since the move, the Bucks are slowly building chemistry with their new-look roster. As we've seen in the past with other teams, trades that involve major pieces of the team—like Knight—often shake things up.
And forming new chemistry isn't something that happens overnight.
Moving forward to the postseason, the Bucks don't need to make any dramatic shifts in their lineup or rotations. As long as the coaching staff continues to give the same players consistent minutes, these players will continue to build the necessary chemistry that success requires.
They may not win a postseason series this season but the experience will help this young team form a bond moving forward and hopefully allow it to succeed even more in the very near future.
* Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference and current through Thursday, April 9 *
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