Previewing the Favorites, Dark Horses of TUF 21: ATT vs. Blackzilians
The Ultimate Fighter returns this month with its 21st installment of the long-running series. The show changes up its format for this season, as it goes with a gym vs. gym layout that should be a nice shakeup to the series.
This season will take place in Florida, as rival gyms American Top team and the Blackzilians will compete against one another. The rivalry stems from a few years ago, when a group of fighters from ATT defected from Dan Lambert's camp to form the Blackzilian team and the gym, which is owned by Glenn Robinson.
This split has caused much tension and a bitter rivalry between teams, something that should boil over on screen. With that tension, we should be able to have an entertaining season of fights featuring 16 welterweights that have a chance for a total prize of $500,000 for their gym when it's all said and done.
With that, let's take a look into this season, break things down and check out the favorite and darkhorses for TUF 21.
Breakdown of American Top Team
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Roster
| Fighter | Age | Record |
| Marcelo Alfaya | 36 | 16-7 (1NC) |
| Steve Carl | 30 | 21-4 |
| Nathan Coy | 36 | 14-5 |
| Mike Graves | 24 | 4-0 |
| Hayder Hassan | 32 | 6-1 |
| Sabah Homasi | 26 | 8-4 |
| Uros Jurisic | 23 | 5-0 |
| Steve Montgomery | 24 | 8-2 |
In examining American Top Team, it's easy to see a couple things.
First, their team is older and more experienced. They have five guys with 10 fights or more, two of which have over 20. Marcelo Alfaya and Nathan Coy are both 36 years old, which means they've been around for a while and are veterans of the sport.
Not only do they have a plethora of tough veterans, but they have some good-looking prospects that have an awesome chance of being stars in the future. Mike Graves, Uros Jurisic and Steve Montgomery are all young and have great potential, making them guys to look out for in the future.
The amount of big-show veterans on this team gives them a skill edge as well. Alfaya, Coy and Steve Carl, among others, have fought for organizations like Bellator, World Series of Fighting and Titan Fighting Championships, which could prove valuable under the bright lights.
Add in Dan Lambert's legendary coaches and trainers, guys like Robbie Lawler to help out and a sterling reputation, American Top Team likely has the edge in terms of talent.
Breakdown of Blackzilians
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Roster
| Fighter | Age | Record |
| Valdir Araujo | 30 | 14-5 |
| Carrington Banks | 26 | 3-0 |
| Luiz Firmino | 32 | 18-6 |
| Jason Jackson | 24 | 4-2 |
| Vicente Luque | 23 | 7-4-1 |
| Andrews Nakahara | 31 | 4-2-2 |
| Felipe Portela | 27 | 8-2 |
| Kam Usman | 26 | 5-1 |
In examining the Blackzilian team, what jumps out for them is that they are generally a younger team with less experience. That said, they do have some talented guys to offer this competition.
When it comes to experience, they have four guys with 10 fights or more. However, they have just one guy with over 20 fights, and when it comes to inexperience, they have three guys with six or less fights.
Veteran leadership may be something they lack here. The truest vets they have are likely Valdir Araujo and Luiz Firmino, who have been big-show vets in their day as well.
In looking at the resume and skill sets of some of these fighters, some do not have the strongest offerings. Where there are many ATT fighters on this cast that can be conceivable as a finalist on this season, there aren't nearly as many options here.
Maybe the Blackzilians will surprise us, but outside Kam Usman, Firmino and maybe two other fighters, it's obvious that the Blackzilians are not nearly as strong talent-wise as ATT.
Favorite #1: Steve Carl
3 of 8If there is an obvious favorite coming into this season, it has to be Steve Carl. He has the most name recognition and accomplishments in the sport thus far.
Not only has Steve Carl participated in two Bellator tournaments, making it to the semifinals once, Carl is the former WSOF Welterweight Champion. That is a huge feather in his cap, perhaps giving him a psychological edge over most.
His strength of schedule will also serve him well. He has fought some top fighters in his career, which means the competition level here shouldn't be anything new for him.
His submission skills have been on display throughout his career. Of his 21 wins, 16 have come by way of submission, including over the likes of UFC employee Josh Burkman, Strikeforce vet Tyler Stinson and Bellator mainstay Brett Cooper.
All things considered, Carl is easily the early favorite here.
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Favorite #2: Kam Usman
4 of 8There's a lot of hype surrounding Kam Usman, and for good reason.
For starters, the wrestler is extremely athletic and incredibly explosive. The physical specimen bullies people around the cage, rag dolling them like they aren't 170-pound men.
He's young in his career, so a guy like him will really benefit from competing on this show. It has done wonders for guys like Chris Holdsworth, TJ Dillashaw and a plethora of other fighters, so it's possible Usman will follow in those footsteps.
And remember, power is nothing unless you use it properly. Seeing as Usman has finished every man he's defeated, he is able to use his power for utter destruction.
Favorite #3: Luiz Firmino
5 of 8Who would have thought a Pride veteran would make TUF 21 seasons in? If it were to happen, it should have happened earlier, but Luiz Firmino will be the guy that fits that bill.
Firmino, a pro since 2000, has fought everywhere, from Pride to Dream to WSOF. Along the way, he has fought some very notable fighters and showed great success as a mixed martial artist.
A couple of years ago, I might have counted Firmino out. He was losing fights more frequently than he ever had. However, he's turned a corner in recent times.
He is 5-0 since 2012 and beat some top fighters. He has defeated UFC vets Tyson Griffin and Jacob Volkmann in his last two, as well as Bellator vets Toby Imada and Luis Palomino in his current stretch.
Keep an eye on this Brazilian vet.
Dark Horse #1: Mike Graves
6 of 8American Top Team is sitting on a diamond in the rough and his name is Mike Graves.
Graves is a well-rounded fighter, but his wrestling and ground-and-pound is something to behold. He is a finisher as well, preferring to smash up opponents as opposed to letting the judges decide his fate.
Not only is he young in his career, but Graves is just 24 years of age. He has a lot of time to develop and get even better, which is scary given the progress he has already made.
Graves could go from an unknown prospect to a potential UFC player by the time this tournament concludes.
Dark Horse #2: Uros Jurisic
7 of 8Speaking of diamonds in the rough for ATT, there is a Slovenian by the name of Uros Jurisic who is just 22 years old, but could be a blue chipper to watch on this show.
Jurisic is a grappler with great athletic ability and a good top game on the ground. His striking definitely needs some development, but a show like this can really help him progress in that area.
He's another finisher on this season of the show, meaning there is a murderer's row of guys looking to end fights. Jurisic fits that mold and given his tenacity on the ground, I don't think many will want to find themselves under him in a grappling exchange.
He could go from undefeated unknown to potential UFC staple if his trajectory stays the course it's on right now.
Dark Horse #3: Steve Montgomery
8 of 8Had you asked me about Steve Montgomery in the aftermath of his appearance on Bellator Fight Master, I wouldn't have said much. He was brutally knocked out by Cristiano Souza in fairly easy fashion, and Souza hasn't gone on to be anything special.
However, it's not the loss that sticks out anymore. It's the improvements that Montgomery has made since his brief stint on that show that gives me great hope for him.
That devastating knockout loss could have completely derailed "The Creepy Weasel," but it didn't. He has gotten back in the gym, tightened up his game and earned some big wins.
The biggest was in his last bout with Titan FC, where Montgomery crippled UFC vet Brock Jardine with a knockout via knee. That was a huge win for Montgomery, but put some steam in his sails to give him some hype that reversed previous misfortunes.
Montgomery is the definition of dark horse and you should keep tabs on him.
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