Updated Stock Watch for Rafael Nadal's Biggest Challengers at 2015 French Open
The clay-court season really begins with Monte Carlo for the all-important climax at the 2015 French Open. Until he's dethroned, Rafael Nadal is the champion and the target for all other contenders.
Following February, our prior stock watch listed six contenders who could be threats to the clay king's Roland Garros crown. Since then, Masters 1000 tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami have shaken up a few of these contenders, and they have identified more strongly who can make a legitimate run at Nadal.
We say goodbye to Tomas Berdych's prior momentum. He is consistent but must win big battles against top contenders on clay, so he drops out of our prior stock watch listing. We're also dropping Andy Murray. He still has zero clay-court titles and a growing mountain in the form of Novak Djokovic, as well as Nadal. It would be his worst possible scenario on red clay against either of his superstar contemporaries.
Who is playing well now, and who is projected to perform well on clay?
5. Roger Federer
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Stock: Steady. Roger Federer had a strong showing at Indian Wells, pushing Djokovic to a third set in the final. The big-picture result is proof enough that Federer has enough game and guile to win. He sat out the Miami Masters, so he should be well-rested for Europe.
Pre-French Open outlook: He will be hard-pressed to match last year's run to the Monte Carlo final when he almost bagged the title, only to get overpowered by Stan Wawrinka in the third set. There are enough clay-court contenders who could wear him down, and a potential match against Djokovic or Nadal on clay is a shaky proposition.
Threat level: The Swiss Maestro will play the percentages, looking to come in and shorten points when he can. He is still one of the very best clay-court players in the world, but obviously, he's more mortal on clay and in comparison to monsters Djokovic and Nadal. There would be a lot of "ifs" involved to pull off a second French Open title. If he is rested. If he is playing well. If he gets a great draw. If Nadal and Djokovic get upset.
If the stars align, don't count out Federer. Champions never forget how to hold up trophies.
4. David Ferrer
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Stock: Up. It's been a terrific start to the season for David Ferrer, snagging three titles and posting an impressive 22-3 record. He was slowed down a bit at Indian Wells, losing to Bernard Tomic in the third round. In Miami, he surged back to the quarterfinals but, like everyone else, was buzzed by Djokovic.
Pre-French Open outlook: Last year, Ferrer created one of the big upsets at Monte Carlo, coming in on Nadal's short strokes and putting them away. As always, Ferrer is a tough competitor, and he is fit and playing well. He is most comfortable on clay, and there are fewer opponents who can overpower him.
Threat level: In 2013, Ferrer took advantage of his draw and got to the French Open final. He was rested after an easy match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while Nadal survived the most grueling match of his career to land in the final. It didn't matter once it was Sunday. Nadal blew through Ferrer in straight sets.
For Ferrer to turn the tables, he must count on Nadal being more vulnerable, and that, somehow, Djokovic doesn't get there. He's a longshot but an opportunist. What a story it would be for Ferrer and the tennis world.
3. Stan Wawrinka
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Stock: Down. Wawrinka was a flop at Indian Wells and Miami, falling to Robin Haase and Adrian Mannarino, respectively. That's unacceptable for a slow hard-courts player like Wawrinka, who could have used a shot of confidence heading to the clay-court swing in Europe.
Pre-French Open outlook: How about trying to defend Monte Carlo? A poor performance there could all but seal his fate in finishing behind eight other seeds. That means possibly playing three players ahead of him deep in the French Open draw. He needs strong showings at all three of the clay Masters venues—at least a finals appearance at one of them just to try to leap past a couple of rivals.
Threat level: Because he is a very good clay-courter, a surface that gives him time to unload with his power, he figures as one of the most likely threats to defeating Djokovic and Nadal, head to head. He's done it before, albeit the 2014 Australian Open. However, Wawrinka was ousted in the first round of the French Open a year ago, and he often has hiccups in the early rounds against players he should vanquish.
Whether because of impatience, unnecessary big strokes or lack of competitive preparation, he simply does not get up the same way that he does to fight Djokovic. He's going to have to put together one more big tournament of his life, but the possibility is there.
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2. Kei Nishikori
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Stock: Steady. Kei Nishikori had hoped he could do better than losing to Feliciano Lopez and John Isner at Indian Wells and Miami, respectively. Lopez was hot, and Isner rode his monster serve. On clay, Isner and Milos Raonic will be more vulnerable, and not just because their serve hops will stay up longer, but especially because their more sluggish movement and footwork will pale next to Nishikori's.
Pre-French Open outlook: Not only did Nishikori answer the bell last year in claiming Barcelona and nearly taking Madrid from Nadal, but the slight Japanese star also proved that his conditioning and mental toughness can hold up; these are essential qualities to win titles on clay.
Threat level: He might match up better against Nadal than against Djokovic, especially if the Spanish champion is not at his best. Nishikori has a quality blend of retrieving and aggressiveness that would force Nadal to go for something extra. That could frustrate the Spaniard.
Djokovic might be the bigger problem because everything Nishikori does, Djokovic can do better. If Nishikori can stay in the top four, he would conceivably have better odds avoiding the two heavy favorites. That could also depend on if Nadal displaces Murray in the top four.
1. Novak Djokovic
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Stock: Red hot. Like last year, Djokovic swept through Indian Wells and Miami. Oh, and he also won the 2015 Australian Open. For the last few years, Djokovic has often been disappointingly compared against himself from 2011.
Right now, he might be better. He's more mature and composed. He's not just riding a hot streak into the unknown but has been through every conceivable war and disappointment. He's as ready as ever for Europe.
Pre-French Open outlook: If Nadal is unable to rise up on his beloved clay, Djokovic will be the favorite. At least, nobody will be ranked ahead of Djokovic on this stock watch unless the Serbian gets injured or something inexplicable happens to his play.
What's interesting is that we are less likely to get a Nadal-Djokovic Masters final at Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome because Nadal has to prove he can hold up his end of the bargain. Nadal could just as easily meet up with Djokovic in the top half of the draw a round or two earlier.
Threat level: What else is there besides the French Open trophy? Right now is his best chance ever. Nobody knows how long this window will stay open. Maybe someone else will come along in couple of years and will become a performer like 1997 Gustavo Kuerten or 2005 Nadal.
Djokovic will get the best seed and likely better draws than current No. 5 Nadal. That could matter, although, Nadal fans would be quick to point back to this precedent in 2013. Still, how much longer can the King of Clay continue to rule Roland Garros?
That's the quest, and nobody is better equipped to take the Musketeers Cup than King Novak.
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