Breaking Down the Mysterious Case of Duke's Improved Defense

Michigan State made four early three-pointers, and just about everyone seemed ready to write the obituary on Duke’s improved defense.

As the Spartans soon found out, their Final Four opponent’s improvement at that end of the floor is very real.

Once extremely vulnerable against dribble penetration, the synergy is so much better. Like a couple that needed counseling, they’ve been talking and creating harmony. There’s been erstwhile emotional investment.

But let’s not confuse progress for invincibility while looking toward Monday night. The Blue Devils have their work cut out for them.

Wisconsin will not be duped into many hasty shots, like the Spartans. And the Badgers just defeated Kentucky. That's a confidence trump card if there ever was one.

Duke’s improved individual skill, teamwork and coach Mike Krzyzewski’s master puppeteering have all played a role in playing UW for a national championship—a goal once seemingly unfathomable for a defense that was in January more head slap than floor slap.

“Our defense has been great the last 16 minutes,” the Blue Devils’ head coach said on the TBS broadcast at halftime against the Spartans.

He went from seeing his team surrender a 14-6 deficit to holding MSU the final six minutes of the first period without a basket. The big lead was insurmountable, as the Spartans continued to either miss soft inside shots or play frazzled "hero ball."

Karl B DeBlaker/Associated Press

The postseason script stayed intact. In five tourney games, Duke is limiting opponents to 37.4 percent shooting from the field.

Duke has continued to bolster defensive efficiency (allowed points per possession). After starting the tournament at 0.96, it has brought that down to 0.928 after the Spartans wilted in Indianapolis, despite a scorching start.

Amile Jefferson said in Indianapolis:

"

We knew we had the tools and the togetherness to be a really good defensive team. We had lapses during the season when our defense wasn't where we wanted it to be, but we've fixed it.

Our coaches do an amazing job of scouting and giving us a really good game plan. With our defensive versatility on the perimeter and Jahlil Okafor in the middle, we're really good on defense right now.

"

This Duke resurgence started after Duke gave up 177 points in January losses to North Carolina State and Miami. Then the Devils beat Louisville, allowing only 52 on the road. Krzyzewski's famously played some zone, and the rewrite was on for a young team without many chapters of experience.

Improvement had to start somewhere. Beating the score-starved Cardinals was a good starting line.

It’s not flashy, though, that’s for sure.

There is no “Havoc” coming out of Durham. No “Forty Minutes of Hell” like Arkansas once upon a time or anything close to UNLV’s old-school amoeba.

The most impressive individual defensive play against MSU may have come late in the first half. Okafor made a free throw. Jefferson disrupted the inbounds pass just enough to force a turnover.

Even the TBS broadcasters blamed the Spartans, calling it a miscommunication, though praising Jefferson for sticking his nose in what appeared to be a pretty ordinary play.

A large case of “ordinary” is part of Duke’s new framework.

And opponents’ scoring prowess has been overrated, starting with who the Devils have played the last three weekends.

First a No. 16 seed and then San Diego State, which has an effective field-goal percentage (46.6) which ranks 275th nationally.

Then Houston last weekend. Gonzaga and Utah, shot well below their season shooting percentages at the NFL stadium. So giving the Devil its due seems fair.

Except Duke shot 44 percent against Utah and 37.5 percent against Gonzaga, both well below a season average of 50 percent. And no one was talking about how Duke’s offense fizzled. Funny how stories get told.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The overriding theme was the Houston hoops backdrops and how they negatively affected shooters, a factor CBS Sports analyst Grant Hill discussed (via David Barron of the Houston Chronicle). Perception was overruled by depth perception and rightfully so.

Let’s note that perception has worked against Duke, too.

So much has been made of Okafor’s inadequacies—he couldn’t block shots or guard along the perimeter—but that doesn’t put enough onus on his teammates recognizing the flip side. They needed to work to make the 7-foot freshman look better, too. The freshman's recovery from a late-February sprained ankle (which forced him to miss one game) has been an unheralded part of this transformation, too.

Then there’s Krzyzewski's impact. A guy doesn’t pass 1,000 wins without knowing how to tinker. The serendipity was dismissing Rasheed Sulaimon and inserting Matt Jones. And allowing Justise Winslow to play against power forwards—seven of his 31 blocked shots have come in the tournament—to amplify his defensive presence and Jefferson’s.

The congratulatory Duke “D” talk comes from all over. Stories. Tweets. You name it.

We’ll see. Beating the Badgers, the nation’s most effective scoring team, is a whole different challenge than anything in the first five NCAA games.

Wisconsin just scored 1.23 points per possession in the Final Four against the best defense of the KenPom era. Sam Dekker has had a monster, moneymaking NCAA tournament. Frank Kaminsky is a constant threat. This team oozes poise and efficiency and a looseness that even a stenographer has to love.

Duke’s defense isn’t a fraud. It's worth typing about. But it stands to be isolated as not quite the real deal by the Badgers.

Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com, unless noted otherwise.