Duke vs. Wisconsin 2015: Early Predictions for NCAA Championship Game

Is it possible for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament to be a Cinderella because Wisconsin certainly feels like one in Indianapolis?

The Badgers stunned the previously undefeated Kentucky Wildcats Saturday to set up a national-title clash with another one of college basketball’s blue bloods, the Duke Blue Devils. In a Final Four that featured three previous national champion coaches in John Calipari, Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski, it is Bo Ryan’s team that is a single victory away from claiming this year’s crown.

It may not be the race for a 40-0 finish from Kentucky like so many commentators and fans expected at the start of the tournament, but it will be a thrilling title game nonetheless.

Mike Sando of ESPN.com pointed out that Wisconsin should not be seen as the underdog that scraped by Kentucky, while ESPN NBA Insider Chad Ford noted that there will still be an overwhelming amount of talent on the floor:

Now that the Final Four is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to look ahead to the national championship game. Here is a look at a few early predictions for Monday’s clash.

Wisconsin Starts Slow

In what can easily be explained away by human nature, Wisconsin will start slow Monday against Duke.

The Badgers had the entire offseason to think about their heartbreaking loss to Kentucky in last season’s Final Four when Aaron Harrison drilled a three-pointer from well beyond the line. There is no doubt they were motivated by that near-miss and got their chance at revenge Saturday.

They certainly took advantage.

Between the end of Kentucky’s undefeated season to the fact that Wisconsin cleared the biggest hurdle in all of college basketball, Saturday’s contest felt very much like a championship for Wisconsin. The Wildcats were the opponent everyone circled on their bracket, and the Badgers took care of business when it mattered most.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Now they are supposed to emotionally bounce back and take the court less than 48 hours later against Duke and its group of future pros? 

It will understandably take some time for Wisconsin to fully settle in Monday night. As long as Duke doesn’t jump out to an overwhelming lead, the Badgers will still have plenty of time to recover.

Wisconsin Recovers in the Second Half by Spreading Floor

Recover is exactly what Wisconsin will do in the second half by using a similar strategy that fans saw Saturday against Kentucky.

Jahlil Okafor is arguably the best player in all of college basketball (or at least the best pro prospect), but he isn’t the best defender and doesn’t venture too far from the paint very often on that end. The Badgers typically have five guys on the floor at once who can shoot from three-point range, including big men Frank Kaminsky and Nigel Hayes.

That will force Okafor to venture to the perimeter on a number of occasions, which will open up the lane for penetration and offensive rebounding. Without Okafor parked near the rim on defense, Wisconsin will have the opportunity to grab its own misses, much like it did against Kentucky when it grabbed 12 offensive rebounds.

If it worked against Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, it will probably work against Okafor as well.

Either the Badgers will make their three-pointers or create opportunities for second-chance points, which will help them recover from an early hole and climb back into the game in the second half. The key will be stopping Okafor and company on the other end. 

Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders pointed out that it will be a treat to watch Okafor and Kaminsky battle each other for the national title:

Wisconsin may not be able to completely shut Okafor down (who can?), but it will do enough to at least contain his offense. Kaminsky is tall enough at 7’ to bother Okafor’s shots on his up-and-under post moves without much help from double-teams, which means Duke won’t have as many open looks for the shooters surrounding its superstar as it usually does.

Wisconsin Wins the National Title

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The perimeter shooting from the big men, the offensive-rebounding opportunities and Kaminsky’s ability to at least contain Okafor without needing much help from double-teams will all combine to give Wisconsin the national championship.

The Badgers are simply an offensive juggernaut and are ranked No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted offensive-efficiency rankings. They scored enough points to knock off the best defense in the nation in Kentucky and will carry that momentum over to the second half of Monday’s showdown with a Duke team that is suddenly playing lockdown defense itself.

Bronson Koenig discussed his team’s offense, per Steve Jones of The Courier-Journal: "We consider ourselves to have a really good offense. One guy can have a bad shooting night or a couple guys can have a bad shooting night, but I feel like all throughout the season it's been pretty consistent with five guys getting in double figures. Anybody can go off on any given night."

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

It would be a mistake to overlook Duke as a threat to Wisconsin just because the Badgers beat mighty Kentucky. After all, the Blue Devils went into Madison and beat Wisconsin once this year already.

Still, the Badgers are simply playing unbeatable basketball with an offense that is incredibly difficult to stop. Just like Kentucky in the Final Four, Duke will not be able to make enough defensive plays with the game on the line as the Badgers spread the floor and attack. 

Wisconsin will party Monday night.

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