Safest, Riskiest Choices New England Patriots Might Consider in 2015 NFL Draft

Bill Belichick has never been a risk-averse football decision-maker, on or off the field.  That mentality especially applies to his draft philosophy, as Belichick has taken plenty of swings at injury risks (Dominique Easley, Rob Gronkowski) and players whose selections bucked conventional predraft wisdom (Sebastian Vollmer, Duron Harmon).

These decisions have paid off with varying degrees of success, but the Patriots' trust in their scouting system and adherence to value have generally given them an edge in the long run.  There's a fine line between risk and recklessness, and though the draft generally resembles an efficient market where every team operates with the same information, the Patriots have been willing to accept more risk with the idea that their culture and coaching provide them an inherent leg up.

However, the 2015 squad probably needs an immediate contributor given some of the depth issues at positions like cornerback and guard.  That obviously should not rule out a player with greater long-term upside who falls into New England's lap, like Jalen Collins or Laken Tomlinson.  But unlike last year's draft, where nearly every pick was a long-term upside play, the Pats will likely need a greater short-term impact to offset their losses from free agency.

It's hard to pinpoint how the Patriots will balance this, of course, so let's look at both sides of the coin and highlight some of the riskiest and safest prospects who could realistically end up in Foxborough.  Note that we'll be looking at not only possibilities for the Pats' first-rounder but also at players who could be drafted within the first two days, when New England holds four picks.

Safe: Tre' Jackson, OG, Florida State

New England's interior offensive line play was often among the worst in the league last season.  According to Pro Football Focus, Patriots guards combined for a wince-inducing minus-53.3 overall grade, with only Ryan Wendell grading out in the green.  Given that incumbent starter Dan Connolly has received a surprising amount of interest on the free-agent market, the Pats might need a new left guard in 2015.

Few rookies would be better equipped to step in right away than Tre' Jackson, who could join fellow ex-Seminole Bryan Stork as a rookie starter along the line.  A true mauler at 6'4" and 330 pounds, Jackson profiles as a plus-run blocker right away, and the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe has suggested that getting younger along the line should be a priority this offseason:

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The Patriots appear set to build their interior line around center Bryan Stork, and getting younger is a nice way to do it. Bill Belichick also has a pipeline to Florida State offensive line coach Rick Trickett through Dante Scarnecchia, who is again assisting the draft process and was instrumental in Stork’s selection. Jackson is a powerful force who has been viewed as a big-time prospect for a couple years. Plus, if an offensive lineman is a Senior Bowl MVP, he's doing something pretty darn well.

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Jackson isn't necessarily a risk-free prospect; his play declined in 2014 despite an All-American selection, and he'll need to shed weight if he has any hope against NFL-caliber 3-technique pass-rushers.  But his combination of aggression and balance bodes well for Jackson's prospects in pass protection, despite poor testing numbers in speed and agility drills.

Those concerns will likely send Jackson down to the second round despite his impressive college pedigree, though he may not last until the Patriots selection at No. 64.  Many of the players on this list are prime targets if the Patriots trade down into the mid-second round, but few could have as significant of a 2015 impact as Jackson.

Risky: Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

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Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch represent a reasonable starting defensive tackle duo, but with apologies to Chris Jones, Antonio Johnson and Joe Vellano, the Patriots lack depth behind their two base-package starters.  New England doesn't really need another 330-pound run-stuffer due to the proliferation of sub-package defenses, but it might spend a premium selection on a potential anchor with three-down upside.

Oklahoma's Jordan Phillips certainly fits that mold.  He possesses nose tackle size at 6'6" and 329 pounds, but with edge-rusher length (34 ¾" arms), he is able to generate much more penetration than the typical 0- or 1-technique. His pass-rushing moves aren't exactly developed—he had just 3.5 sacks as a Sooner—but with a nimble lower body, Phillips' skill set could fit seamlessly into the type of hybrid system the Pats employ.

Unfortunately, Phillips was often a "flash" player at Norman, someone who frequently disappeared for long stretches of games.  SI.com's Chris Burke goes over this dilemma with Phillips, who has more question marks surrounding his game than nearly any other borderline first-round prospect:

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Thanks to his versatility, Phillips's list of potential landing spots appears rather lengthy...The tricky part is that it remains to be seen whether Phillips can keep his switch flipped on consistently over a long season. Between the 2013 back injury and a limited number of career starts (27) to his name, any projections of Phillips' future success are more speculative than those of most top prospects in this class.​

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Burke also alluded to the back injury that cost Phillips all but four games of his sophomore season two years ago.  Although he's otherwise been a healthy and durable starter, back injuries are nothing to mess with concerning a player that size.  Phillips is a potential game-changer on the front seven, but with legitimate questions surrounding his health and polish, he also has a lower floor than most of the top defensive tackles.

Safe: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

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Considering that the Patriots have spent a large number of their allotted individual meetings with wide receivers, it seems likely that Belichick will spend a pick on another target for Tom Brady.  Though bigger split ends like Devin Funchess and Sammie Coates might be better complements to New England's existing receiver corps on paper, I suggested last week that USC's Nelson Agholor could be the best fit.

Quite frankly, a vertical threat isn't critical to the passing game so long as Rob Gronkowski is around to stretch the seams.  Agholor is probably destined to end up in the slot due to a lack of functional strength to beat press coverage, but Draft Breakdown's Bryan Perez opines that the ex-Trojan demonstrates a nice combination of route-running polish and quickness, which should play well in spacing concepts:

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Agholor showcases a plus burst off the snap, getting into his route in a hurry; He eats up cushion in an instant. He’s a talented route runner who sets up corners with the double move as well as anyone in the class; He’s able to plant hard with a strong shoulder fake while maintaining route integrity and top-end speed. He is a savvy wideout...After the catch, Agholor is a dangerous weapon who uses the defense’s momentum against it. He is fluid and shifty enough to make guys miss and has the hip flexibility to start and stop on a dime.

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Moreover, despite average size at 6'0" and 198 pounds, Agholor's speed (4.42 40-yard time) allows him to serve as an adequate deep threat, even against off coverage.  The ability to run the full route tree is a critical skill in New England's option-based offense, and Agholor is one of the few receivers outside of Amari Cooper who possesses that skill.

Agholor's stock is rising; some have speculated about a fit in Philly, while others have suggested that he could even sneak into the first round.  Wide receiver isn't a particularly pressing need on the Patriots roster, but if he's still on the board at the end of the second round, Agholor would be a terrific value that Belichick might not be able to pass up.

Risky: Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana

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In terms of pure talent, Tevin Coleman belongs in the same class as projected first-rounders Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon.  The ex-Hoosier was one of the nation's best running backs last year, compiling 2,036 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns while exhibiting an enticing combination of decisiveness, violent power and speed. 

And yet, that physical style makes Coleman an injury risk at the next level, especially after 295 touches in 12 games last year at Bloomington.  He missed the combine after undergoing surgery to repair a toe injury; as the Chicago Tribune's Dave Birkett relays, Coleman actually played the final seven games of Indiana's season with the painful injury, compiling an additional 1,195 yards on the ground.

That kind of toughness may be admirable, but it doesn't necessarily assuage teams' concerns.  Coleman comes with some impressive skills, but he's also fairly rough around the edges.  His most damning trait is his below-average vision, something that could make him a scheme-specific back who falls down boards, per SI's Chris Burke:

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The league also might decide Coleman doesn't have the NFL-caliber instincts several other backs feature, leaving the Indiana product available on the draft's third day. Ask five different people for their expectations of Coleman's rookie season and it's quite possible you'll get five very different answers.

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If the Patriots want to buttress their currently uninspiring backfield, Coleman is the type of dynamic three-down weapon who could further diversify the offense during Brady's twilight years.  But he may also cost a second-round pick, depending on how his April 15 pro day goes, and it's hard to project how he'll translate to the NFL without the vision to find those narrower running lanes.

Safe: Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

At first blush, Shaq Thompson might look like one of the draft's biggest risks.  The 6'0", 228-pound Thompson is one of the most versatile players to enter the NFL in years, which is a kind way of saying that he's a true tweener.  He doesn't possess prototypical linebacker size, and after a 4.6 40-yard dash, he probably doesn't have enough speed to hold up as a deep-half safety either.

And yet, NFL coaches make their hay by accentuating players' strengths rather than dwelling on their weaknesses.  Even without a clear position, Thompson has no shortage of tools to impact a game.  As Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen opines, Thompson's fluidity and physicality belie a player with the foundation to contribute on all three downs:

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However, as a “run and hit” defender who can locate the ball and use his athletic ability to attack the running game, Thompson is a fit.

Plus, as a linebacker who drops into coverage in passing situations, I see a fluid prospect who can play underneath as a zone defender, read the quarterback and then accelerate to go make a play. A ‘backer who creates opportunities. What about matching up on a tight end or a running back out of the backfield in man-coverage? Yeah, the athleticism and football awareness is there to get that done.

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The comparisons to Arizona Cardinals' hybrid linebacker/safety Deone Bucannon have been rampant, and in today's game where defenses need nickel- and dime-package athletes who can occupy a variety of roles, that's a very valuable player.  Thompson isn't a disruptive blitzer yet, but his burst and length suggest that proper coaching could unlock that skill set.

Linebacker isn't New England's most pressing need, but I've suggested that the Patriots might select one with an eye toward creating a fearsome front seven to compensate for the losses in the secondary.  Thompson needs creative coaching to translate his tools into tangible production, and few places would represent a better match for him than the Patriots.

Risky: Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

The Patriots aren't going to force a pick at corner, but it's hard to fathom them walking away from the first two days of the draft without at least one in tow.  There's simply not enough long-term stability on the roster, especially given the regressions of Logan Ryan and Alfonzo Dennard in 2014. It would be borderline irresponsible not to replenish the pipeline.

There's a logjam of corners projected to go in the late-first or early-second-round range, an area ripe for the Pats to pounce whether they stand pat at No. 32 or trade down.  FSU's Ronald Darby is one of the logical candidates to go in that area, and his versatility to play man or zone coverages would dovetail well in any system.

However, Darby is also an unwilling tackler (a turnoff for Belichick defensive backs) and might not have the physicality to hold up against bigger NFL receivers on the outside.  Moreover, with teams enamored by his instincts, there's a chance that Darby's stock could shoot past the Patriots' level:

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FSU corner Ronald Darby, very impressive in DB drills. NFC exec says team would be awfully surprised if he was still around Day 2.

— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) March 31, 2015"

For someone whose tool kit rivals the likes of Trae Waynes and Marcus Peters, there are just a few slightly off-putting factors surrounding Darby.  Between questions about his toughness, below-average hands and character due to his association with the Jameis Winston sexual assault case, Darby doesn't necessarily feel like the ideal program fit for the Patriots.

*All measurables and combine stats via NFL.com.