NIT Championship Game 2015: Miami vs. Stanford Odds and Predictions

For Miami and Stanford, Thursday night will be bittersweet. On one hand, they'll be playing for one of three college basketball trophies handed out this spring. On the other, their run to the NIT Championship Game at Madison Square Garden is affirmation that they arguably deserved a shot at the Big Dance.

Both No. 2 seeds before the tournament—meaning they weren't even on the "First Four Out" cutline—the Hurricanes and Cardinal have taken differing paths to Thursday night. 

Miami's run has been defined by juuuuuuuuuuust getting the job done. The Hurricanes' four wins have come by a combined 16 points, and none have come by more than seven. Playing the downtempo style that's become the norm under Jim Larranaga, they've for the most part kept games tethered to the 60s, only occasionally poking their head above the 70-point mark.

Now, the two teams seem to be closely matched, as Odds Shark reports that the Cardinal are 1.5 point favorites in this one. 

Sheldon McClellan has scored 15 points in three of the four games, and Miami's run has been increasingly reliant on role players, as Angel Rodriguez has missed the last three contests with injury. Manu Lecomte and Davon Reed combined for a surprise 32 points against Alabama, Ja'Quan Newton came through with 11 off the bench against Richmond, and the bench collectively scored 27 points Tuesday against Temple.

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

“We could have gone into the NIT saying, ‘oh, we didn’t get invited to the NCAA Tournament,’ and cried over spilled milk," Larranaga said last week, per Andre C. Fernandez of the Miami Herald. "This team didn’t. We went in saying ‘let’s go play our best basketball now in March and let’s cut down the nets at Madison Square Garden.’"

Outside a few clutch offensive bursts, the Hurricanes can largely attribute their run to defensive effort. An inconsistent outfit throughout the regular season, Miami held Richmond, Temple and Alabama below 40 percent shooting to advance. 

"I think what the guys learned is if you keep playing hard on the defensive end of the floor and are willing to share the ball, you can enjoy success," per State of the U's Jerry Steinberg.

Stanford's offensive run, meanwhile, has been defined by continuing its season-long run of offensive success. The Cardinal are averaging a very solid 74 points per game in the NIT, winning three of their four contests by seven or more points. 

Chasson Randle, the program's all-time scoring leader, has been nothing short of brilliant playing his final collegiate games. The hot-and-cold guard has averaged 23.3 points per game, including a 35-point outburst against Rhode Island in the second round. His 24 points against Old Dominion in Tuesday's semifinal helped Stanford avoid blowing a 21-point lead.

"He'll always remember this for the rest of his life," Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins said, per Mark Hostutler of Palo Alto Online. "But having done it at the Garden in front of a terrific crowd, I think it means that much more to him."

Randle, Anthony Brown and Stefan Nastic have combined to be perhaps the tournament's most dynamic offensive trio. Brown, who has knocked down six three-pointers in his last two games, had a season-high 26 points in Stanford's 78-75 win over Vanderbilt. Nastic added 17 points, six rebounds and three blocks in the semifinals, with Old Dominion having no answer for the 6'11" senior down low.

“For me to win an NIT Championship, for our seniors, we went out on top and won our last game and that’s very special, or would be very special for us,” Randle said, per Irving Rodriguez of The Stanford Daily. “For the younger guys, they will have something to hang their hats on for next year going into next season.”

Win or not, it's likely both programs have given their successors a step up. The NIT, while not in its former place of national prominence, has become a proving ground for programs on the rise. Teams like SMU, Wichita State and Baylor in recent seasons have parlayed their NIT success into adding their name on the national radar.

Under Dawkins, Stanford has already come up short following up a deep NIT run once. The Cardinal's 2012 title was followed by a disappointing 2012-13 campaign, though that core did go on to make a tournament the following season.

Miami, which has had surprising peaks and valleys under Larranaga, will be looking for its first NIT championship in program history. In fact, it'd be the first postseason tournament Miami's basketball team—long a secondary thought behind the dominant football program—has ever won. The Hurricanes have only so much as made the NCAA tournament seven times.

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Unfortunately, it's more likely than not the Hurricanes will come up short. Losing Rodriguez was one thing; he'd been inefficient all season, thanks in large part to the lingering wrist problems. But the Hurricanes will also be without center Tonye Jekiri, who suffered a concussion against Temple in what Larranaga called a "freak accident," per Steinberg.

Jekiri's absence should make things easier for Nastic down low. Likewise, Randle and Brown should have an easier time without Rodriguez and his penchant for steals making things difficult. Look for Stanford's trio of seniors to go out triumphant Thursday night.

Score Prediction: Stanford 72, Miami 64

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