Complete 2015 Major MLB Awards Predictions Entering Opening Day
The 2015 Major League Baseball season is just about underway, so why not set the stage for Opening Day by putting together (you guessed it) a way-too-early-but-still-fun-as-heck prediction rundown for the individual awards?
As all 30 clubs prepare for 162 grueling games that count, players are getting ready to embark upon impressive individual campaigns of their own that will result in after-season hardware—just seven short months from now.
So here's the first look at the preseason favorites for the 10 prominent individual awards: Manager of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award winner and MVP in each league.
Also included? A batch of honorable mentions for all five categories. Because, hey, it's too soon to know much of anything just yet.
AL Manager of the Year: Lloyd McClendon, Seattle Mariners
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In case you haven't noticed over the past couple of weeks, the Seattle Mariners have become something of a bandwagon club as a suddenly popular postseason pick. (Gee, wonder where everybody got that idea?)
There's all kinds of talent on the roster, both held over from 2014's much-improved team (Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager) and added to the 2015 version (Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith), and if Lloyd McClendon can help steer all of the parts together in his second season in Seattle, he could be in the driver's seat for this award.
Oh, and the fact that the M's haven't made the postseason since 2001 only helps his cause.
Honorable Mentions: Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles; Terry Francona, Cleveland Indians; Bob Melvin, Oakland Athletics; Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels
NL Manager of the Year: Mike Redmond, Miami Marlins
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Folks everywhere want this to go to Joe Maddon in his first year with those Lovable Losers, but that calls for a little too much of a storybook ending we're not willing to write just yet. Not that that can't happen, but we won't predict it.
Instead, the early favorite in this (more reality-based) book is Mike Redmond, who guided the Miami Marlins to a 15-win improvement in his second year at the helm in 2014.
Another such improvement might be a bit much—that would mean 92 double-yoos—but with a retooled roster now featuring right-hander Mat Latos, third baseman Martin Prado, second baseman Dee Gordon and first baseman Mike Morse around franchise face Giancarlo Stanton, arguably the game's best outfield and back-by-midseason ace Jose Fernandez, the Marlins could turn into surprise wild-card contenders.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs; Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates; Matt Williams, Washington Nationals; Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
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In a list of candidates dominated by Texas Rangers players (see below), Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles is our man.
Following his monstrous 53-homer 2013 campaign, the 29-year-old was abominably bad last year, finishing with not even half as many home runs (26) and checking in with the lowest batting average—that'd be .196—among all qualifiers. He also wrapped up the year with a really poorly timed 25-game suspension for amphetamines, which extends into the first game of 2015.
If Davis can replicate even his breakout 2012 season, when he hit .270 with 33 homers, he'll be in prime position to win this award.
Alternatively, it really would be something if Alex Rodriguez, who is having a rather impressive spring after coming back from the longest PED-related suspension in MLB history, played well enough to make this a possibility. But, c'mon, would baseball really give him an award considering he's coming back from the longest PED-related suspension in MLB history?
Honorable Mentions: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees; Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers; Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers; Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles; Derek Holland, Texas Rangers; Allen Craig, Boston Red Sox
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NL Comeback Player of the Year: Matt Harvey, New York Mets
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There's no shortage of CPOY candidates in the NL, either, but Matt Harvey fronts our list for now.
By the time he steps back on the mound in the New York Mets' third game of the season, the 26-year-old right-hander will be entering his 18th full month removed from his Tommy John surgery in October 2013. That's about as well-timed as this could go given the typical recovery period for the procedure.
All one needs is a quick peek at Harvey this spring—he is regularly reaching the upper 90s and has allowed just three runs in 18.2 innings with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio—to know he's already on top of his game.
"Harvey might not pitch a full 200-inning season," writes Zachary Levine of Baseball Prospectus. "However, he'll benefit from visually appealing statistics in a good pitching ballpark and a campaign that everybody's watching with the comeback storyline riding along with him the whole time."
Honorable Mentions: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds; Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies; Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals; Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates; Jean Segura, Milwaukee Brewers; Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins; Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants; Brett Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year: Rusney Castillo, Boston Red Sox
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Highly regarded pitching prospects Carlos Rodon and Daniel Norris made super spring impressions and could emerge as front-runners for AL ROY if they carry that over into the regular season. Norris especially has an opportunity now that he's been named a part of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation, whereas the Chicago White Sox sent Rodon back to the minors—for now.
But we're sticking with our early-season instincts and going with Rusney Castillo here, even if he starts out in Triple-A for the time being.
As Ricky Doyle of NESN.com writes:
"Shane Victorino figures to be the Red Sox’s starting right fielder to open the season, but Castillo, who previously had been viewed primarily as a center fielder, has shown he can play the position quite well.
"If there was a question of whether he could play right field, he's answered it," Red Sox manager John Farrell told reporters.
"
Simply put, the 27-year-old Cuban is smack dab in his prime, and the Boston Red Sox have too much invested in him—try $72.5 million—not to give him enough of a chance this year. The skills will bring about the opportunity.
Honorable Mentions: Daniel Norris, Toronto Blue Jays; Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox; Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians; Steven Souza, Tampa Bay Rays; Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays; Dalton Pompey, Toronto Blue Jays; Micah Johnson, Chicago White Sox; Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels; Alex Meyer, Minnesota Twins
NL Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
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This is a loaded NL rookie class, complete with a pair who are ready to rock on Opening Day in Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson and two hard-hitting, highly paid Cuban sluggers in Yasmany Tomas and Hector Olivera. An argument can be made for those four, as well as for a number of others.
All of that taken into account, forgive us for being blinded by all the damage Kris Bryant did to baseballs during his stay in big league camp this spring—as you know, he led all hitters with nine home runs—because he's the favorite.
Yes, even if he is, in fact, starting the season in the minors for a few weeks. So did Jacob deGrom last year and Wil Myers in 2013.
Honorable Mentions: Jorge Soler, Chicago Cubs; Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks; Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks; Hector Olivera, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies; Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets; Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
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The presumptive favorite probably should be Felix Hernandez, who has been the best pitcher in the AL over the past decade and is coming off a career year, to boot. But let's go a little off chalk and choose Chris Sale.
Although he has missed most of spring training with a fractured right foot and sprained ankle, the Chicago White Sox left-hander returned to the mound in a minor league game Wednesday and rung up 13 over six innings. In other words, he made hitters looks silly and helpless.
So, how did Sale think he fared?
"My breaking ball was kind of crappy today," the 26-year-old told Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune.
Although he's going to miss the very start of the regular season, Sale—who posted a crazy-good 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 2014—is targeting April 11 or 12 for his first turn, so he won't exactly be too far behind at the outset.
Sure, there are doubts that Sale, who frequently struggles with some ailment or injury, can reach 30 starts—something he has done just once in his career—but if he does, this just might be his year. Few, if any, are harder to hit on such a consistent basis.
Honorable Mentions: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners; David Price, Detroit Tigers; Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians; Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees; Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox; Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
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There may be other candidates, but there really is no other choice. Not after what Clayton Kershaw has done, coming off his 2014 NL Cy Young and MVP wins, as well as topping all of baseball in ERA for a record fourth straight season.
Just as a reminder, here are Kershaw's key stats from a year ago: 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 10.8 K/9. Ew.
The 27-year-old is an absolute freak—in a good way—and to pick against a guy who did all of the above even while missing six weeks with injury last year, well, that would be unwise.
For what it's worth, however, Max Scherzer, who now is back in the designated hitter-less NL and the offense-lacking NL East, could put up quite a fight.
Honorable Mentions: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals; Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals; Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals; Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds; Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants; Matt Harvey, New York Mets; Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
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Now that he's finally won one after placing second in both 2012 and 2013, Mike Trout could put a stranglehold on the AL MVP Award.
Think he's not motivated to do just that? Heck, consider what the Los Angeles Angels center fielder has done this exhibition season, with a—get this—.451 average, .517 on-base percentage, .824 slugging and four homers and stolen bases apiece. Sure, spring stats don't count, but yeesh.
The 23-year-old Trout, who was the only player in the game to both drive in (111) and score (115) more than 110 runs in 2014, also has been working on his approach to improve on a strikeout rate that jumped to north of 26 percent.
It's hard to predict that Trout will be better in 2015 than he has so far in the historic start to his career. But then again, he could be. That's how talented he is.
Honorable Mentions: Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners; Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers; Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays; Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox; Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays; Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays; Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners; Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles; Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians; David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox; Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Here's guessing that Andrew McCutchen's baseball powers aren't tied to his since-shorn locks a la Samson.
Fact is, the 28-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder has been right there with Mike Trout as the most consistently elite all-around player in baseball the past three seasons. And McCutchen has ruled the NL in that time, placing in the top three in MVP voting each year and winning it in 2013.
What's scary is that in many ways, Cutch actually was better last year when he posted a higher OPS (.952 versus .911), hit more homers (25 to 21) and walked more (84 to 78) while playing 11 fewer games.
With the Pirates now featuring a deeper, more versatile lineup, McCutchen is going to have all kinds of support as he leads the club on its continued recent winning ways.
Honorable Mentions: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins; Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers; Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals; Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals; Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals; Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers; Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs; Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies; Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks; Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers; Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals; Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants; Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers; Matt Kemp, San Diego Padres; Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Statistics are accurate through Wednesday, April 1, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter:@JayCat11
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