
Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Top NFL Draft Prospects
It's official, people—the calendar has turned to April, and at the end of the month, the 2015 NFL draft will be underway. This is undoubtedly one of the most fun periods on the league calendar, and the next month should be ripe with rumors, innuendo and venomous quotes from anonymous scouts and front-office types.
For eight of the best players in the draft, the future is unknown. Where will they end up? Will they be put in a position to succeed? These are difficult questions, but I have the answers, homie.
Will Jameis Winston be a success in Tampa Bay? Will Marcus Mariota avoid the quarterback wasteland known as Cleveland? And will Amari Cooper have to catch passes from an apathetic Jay Cutler?
The answers lie ahead, boss. Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for top NFL draft prospects.
Florida State QB Jameis Winston
1 of 8
Best-Case Scenario
Florida State QB Jameis Winston—the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner—is selected by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the first overall pick of this month's draft. In doing so, Bucs head coach Lovie Smith and general manager Jason Licht are undaunted by unflattering pictures (h/t Michael David Smith of ProFootballTalk.com) of Winston from his pro day earlier this week. It's the right decision, since pro days are stupid and Tom Brady doesn't exactly have the body of a Greek god.
Winston gets to stay in the state of Florida and enjoy all the crab legs a man could ever want. And who doesn't love crab legs?
In his rookie season, Winston has a number of quality options at the skill positions to work with, including receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He plays well in Week 1, leading the Bucs to victory over division-rival Atlanta. He promptly gets put on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and then throws four interceptions in a Week 2 loss at Green Bay.
Despite the performance at Lambeau, Winston authors an ultra-successful rookie campaign—staying out of trouble in the process. Although the season ends with the Bucs just missing the postseason after a Week 17 loss at New Orleans, Winston offers hope that the future is indeed bright in Tampa Bay.
Worst-Case Scenario
With questions swirling about his physique and overall character, Smith and Licht employ the same brilliant decision-making they used in the 2014 free-agency period—when they signed defensive end Michael Johnson, tackle Anthony Collins and quarterback Josh McCown, only to jettison all three one year later—and pass on Winston with the No. 1 overall pick.
Once Winston gets past Tampa Bay, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson can't contain himself. He knocks over his new general manager, Mike Maccagnan, on his way to the telephone and dials Tennessee Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt faster than you can say "Publix." Johnson trades the sun, the moon and the stars—literally, he trades at least one constellation in addition to a bevy of draft picks—to move up to No. 2 overall.
The Jets then draft Winston with the second overall pick. Upon the announcement, the Internet bursts into flames, and years of technological advancements are undone. Winston can't stay out of trouble in the Big Apple, but the good news is that there's no Internet for his foibles to be reported on 24/7.
The bad news, though, is that the Jets can't get it together and go 6-10 in Winston's first year, including two blowout losses at the hands of a laughing Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Winston ain't in Tallahassee anymore.
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
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Best-Case Scenario
While Tennessee Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt hasn't exactly proved himself to be the most adept quarterback evaluator in the league—he once chose to play Matt Leinart over Kurt Warner—even he can't screw up the No. 2 overall pick, drafting Oregon passer Marcus Mariota to be the new face of the franchise.
Mariota immediately steps into the starting role in Tennessee and becomes a god in the Music City the likes of Elvis Presley (albeit without the killer dance moves and screaming hordes of women). With an improved roster, Mariota keeps the Titans in the playoff hunt through November, and fans are giddy about what the future holds.
Worst-Case Scenario
Whisenhunt decides not to draft Mariota with the second overall pick, and he careens down the board until Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam can no longer help himself. Haslam—who may or may not have once again been given quarterback advice by a homeless man—orders general manager Ray Farmer to trade up to draft Mariota, and Farmer, who has proved to be an excellent texter, makes the deal happen in short order.
Twitter crashes immediately upon the announcement, and Mariota silently sobs at the prospect of heading to Cleveland. For the second consecutive draft, Farmer refuses to take a wide receiver, leaving Mariota to throw the ball to receivers Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins. And no, it doesn't go particularly well.
Even though he loves Browns coach Mike Pettine, Mariota is grossly unhappy in Cleveland, especially considering the town loves backup Johnny Manziel, who successfully completed his trip in a rehabilitation center. Every time Mariota throws an interception, the camera pans to Manziel on the sideline, and the fervor to play Johnny Football grows on a weekly basis.
Farmer—unable to stop himself from texting to the sideline—orders Pettine to play Manziel, and Mariota is pulled. Manziel promptly throws three interceptions and loses the job, but at this point, Mariota is a broken man. The Browns go 4-12 and miss the playoffs, and rumors immediately start that Haslam has his eye on a new quarterback in the 2016 draft.
Georgia RB Todd Gurley
3 of 8
Best-Case Scenario
If not for the torn ACL he suffered last season at the collegiate level, it's possible that Georgia running back Todd Gurley would be a top pick in the draft. Just watch his college highlights, playboy. We'll wait here.
One team that has taken notice of Gurley's undeniable talent is the San Diego Chargers, who need a back to replace the departed Ryan Mathews. With the 17th overall pick, San Diego takes Gurley off the board.
Gurley joins an offense that's ready to contend for a Super Bowl title and finds immediate success rushing behind the team's improved offensive line. Quarterback Philip Rivers is obsessed with his new running back and stops throwing the ball into the ground like a petulant child as a result.
Plus, Gurley gets to enjoy all the delicious Mexican food and sunshine a man could ever ask for. And really, who doesn't love Mexican food and sunshine?
Gurley ends the season by rushing for 4.7 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns, and the Chargers make the playoffs. Fantasy football magazines fall all over themselves in putting Gurley on the cover for the 2016 edition.
Worst-Case Scenario
With concerns about his health making teams nervous, Gurley nearly tumbles out of Day 1—but the Seattle Seahawks trade back into the end of the first round to nab him.
The thought process is that the team can't truly count on Marshawn Lynch for too much longer, and general manager John Schneider loves stockpiling talent. Upon arriving in the Pacific Northwest, Gurley is heralded as the next Lynch, as the two share a bruising running style.
But unfortunately for everyone who spends all offseason hyping Gurley, he enters the equivalent of the running back witness-protection program, alongside Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Because, you see, if you're behind Lynch, it's almost as if you're not really on the team.
Gurley barely makes an impact his rookie year, and the Seahawks end up giving Lynch more money next offseason when he once again threatens to retire. As a result, Gurley stays in witness protection. And that's no fun for anyone.
USC DL Leonard Williams
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Best-Case Scenario
USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams could be the safest pick in the draft, as his talent is simply undeniable. His best-case scenario has the Tennessee Titans making him the second overall selection.
Williams joins a talented defensive line that includes stud tackle Jurrell Casey, and the two form a dynamic one-two punch. Williams terrorizes the quarterbacks of the AFC South, including Indianapolis' Andrew Luck, instantly endearing him to Titans fans.
The Titans fall short of the playoffs, but Williams earns Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Worst-Case Scenario
Williams slips to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the third overall pick and is immediately given a motivational speech by hyperactive coach Gus Bradley. Williams is pumped to be a Jaguar and can't wait to get going.
Williams arrives in Duval County for training camp ready to work and be part of a team on the upswing. Unfortunately, he watches as quarterback Blake Bortles fires missiles over the heads of all his receivers, and Williams silently wishes he was back in Southern California.
Bortles has a brutal season and the Jaguars go 5-11, leading to Bradley's firing. Williams plays well, but if you play well in Jacksonville and the team misses the playoffs, does it really happen, homie?
Alabama WR Amari Cooper
5 of 8
Best-Case Scenario
Although he wanted to be selected No. 4 overall by the Oakland Raiders, Alabama receiver Amari Cooper is relieved when he's selected with the ninth overall selection by the New York Giants.
In addition to moving to the Big Apple, Cooper is paired with stud receiver Odell Beckham Jr., and the two absolutely tear up the league. Eli Manning has his best season in years and forms an immediate rapport with Cooper, and as a result, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo can finally stop calling hundreds of fade patterns in the red zone.
Cooper, Beckham and fellow wideout Victor Cruz lead a potent Giants offense all the way to the NFC Championship Game, and Cooper becomes an instant star under the bright lights of Broadway.
Worst-Case Scenario
After slipping past the Oakland Raiders at No. 4, Cooper is snatched up by the Chicago Bears at No. 7 overall. New coach John Fox has decided that if he's going to be stuck with quarterback Jay Cutler for another year, he might as well surround him with weapons.
But not even Fox is aware of the depths of Cutler's apathy, and Cooper is nonplussed when his calls and texts to Cutler go unanswered, as Cutler is clearly more interested in spending time with his wife, Kristin Cavallari, than working with Cooper in the offseason (it's tough to blame him for that one).
With Cutler not emotionally invested, the rest of the team is affected, and Cooper becomes particularly devastated as Cutler bounces balls at his feet and tosses them over his head, followed by tons of blank stares and emotionless looks. The Bears go 5-11, and Cooper finds himself wishing A.J. McCarron and Blake Sims were throwing him the football.
Baylor QB Bryce Petty
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Best-Case Scenario
With the need for quarterbacks at an all-time high, Baylor's Bryce Petty becomes the third passer off the board at the end of the first round, with the Jets aggressively moving back into Round 1 for the right to select him.
Because the Jets have a quality veteran option in Ryan Fitzpatrick, the need to play Petty in Week 1 isn't great, and he's able to sit on the bench and learn. Fitzpatrick easily holds off incumbent Geno Smith to earn the starting role and doesn't play too poorly in coordinator Chan Gailey's offense.
But, as usual, Fitzpatrick will morph into a living, breathing, bearded turnover machine, and the Jets crowd will lustily boo until coach Todd Bowles yanks him from the lineup. And once that happens, playboy, it's Petty's time to shine.
With decent weapons around him, Petty doesn't play poorly, and although the Jets miss the playoffs, Petty offers hope that the Jets can finally contend for an AFC East title in 2016.
Worst-Case Scenario
The New Orleans Saints have had a difficult offseason that has seen them pay the piper for years of salary-cap mismanagement, and they decide to look to the future with their second first-round pick (No. 31 overall) and draft Petty to be Drew Brees' eventual replacement.
The reasoning is sound, as Brees is 36 and won't play forever—or will he? Brees, who held up the Saints for more money back in 2011 and hasn't once restructured his deal, decides he wants to play until he's 48, and he's so beloved in New Orleans that fans want to see it happen.
Petty never ends up seeing the field during his first three seasons in the league, putting him in the same boat as Denver's Brock Osweiler. And that's not a boat we'd like to be on, homie.
West Virginia WR Kevin White
7 of 8
Best-Case Scenario
Although he isn't close to being the football man that his father (the late, great Al Davis) was, Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis does share one of his father's defining characteristics—an undying love for speed and measurables.
With that in place, Davis orders general manager Reggie McKenzie to draft West Virginia receiver Kevin White with the fourth overall pick. McKenzie was napping at the time and nearly missed the window to make the pick, but he ends up getting it in at the last minute.
White instantly develops a rapport with second-year quarterback Derek Carr, and the Silver and Black have a resurgence in 2015. Oakland just misses the playoffs, but White has an excellent season, catching nine touchdown passes.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Cleveland Browns, in desperate need of a wide receiver, draft White with the 12th overall pick. White joins a receiving corps led by Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins, meaning he'll see the ball on nearly every play.
White has to watch as his quarterbacks—Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown—simply fail to get him the football, and White's best use of his speed comes when trying to tackle opposing cornerbacks from behind as they run back interceptions for touchdowns.
White finishes the year with only three touchdown catches, earning the ire of Browns fans and fantasy football players everywhere.
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon
8 of 8
Best-Case Scenario
Ever since he watched running back DeMarco Murray sign with the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been obsessed, homie. He simply must make a Texas-sized splash to replace Murray and help his team gear up for another run at the Super Bowl.
After failing between five and six hundred times in attempts to trade for Minnesota Vikings back Adrian Peterson, Jones sets his sights on the NFL draft and zeroes in on Wisconsin back Melvin Gordon with the 27th overall selection. He takes Gordon, making him the first running back selected, a high honor which worked wonders last year for Tennessee's Bishop Sankey.
Gordon is immediately installed as the starter behind one of the best offensive lines in football, and the team's pupu platter at running back—Darren McFadden, Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar—cry silently into their pillows after watching Gordon dominate on the first day of training camp. McFadden gets hurt just watching Gordon make lightning-quick cuts.
Although Gordon isn't as physically imposing as Murray, he has an excellent rookie season, helping lead Dallas all the way to the NFC Championship Game and positioning himself favorably in the hearts and minds of fantasy football enthusiasts around the country.
Worst-Case Scenario
Despite possessing the NFL's 31st-ranked rushing attack in 2014, the Arizona Cardinals went 11-5 and qualified for the postseason. Coach Bruce Arians and general manager Steve Keim decide to improve the ground game in the hopes of making a Super Bowl run, so they pull the trigger on Gordon with the 24th overall pick.
The season starts on a positive note, as Gordon rushes well with quarterback Carson Palmer back in the lineup. But Palmer gets hurt in Week 4, forcing backup Drew Stanton into the leading role. And then Stanton gets hurt, forcing Logan Thomas into playing time. And Thomas is awful, forcing the Cardinals to re-sign Ryan Lindley, who is the worst quarterback in the history of organized civilization.
With Lindley under center, defenses take the unexpected measure of putting all 11 men in the box. Gordon averages 2.1 yards per carry for the rest of the season as Cardinals fans and fantasy football players regularly shatter fine china at the sight. Arizona misses the playoffs, and Gordon enters the offseason hoping and praying that one of his quarterbacks can stay healthy in 2016.
Nick Kostos is a featured NFL columnist for Bleacher Report and a host for Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM. Follow Nick on Twitter here and become a fan of his on Facebook here.
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