Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Wisconsin Badgers will attempt to end a 38-game winning streak for the unbeaten Kentucky Wildcats when they square off in the second game of the Final Four this Saturday in Indianapolis. The Badgers nearly beat the Wildcats in the Final Four last year, falling just short in a 74-73 loss as one-point underdogs.

Wisconsin won the West Region for the second consecutive year by topping the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats as a 1.5-point underdog, while Kentucky has gone just 1-3 against the spread in the NCAA tournament despite winning the Midwest Region following a 68-66 victory against the third-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish as 11-point favorites in the Elite Eight.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as six-point favorites; the total was 130 (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick Wisconsin to cover the spread

The Badgers are a much better team than they were last year at this time because they have more scoring options than Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky. Sam Dekker has been equally important during their run to the Final Four this year, putting together career-high scoring performances in each of the past two games, including 27 points in the 85-78 victory against Arizona that featured five three-pointers.

Make no mistake, Kaminsky is still Wisconsin’s best player, but the team will have another reliable scoring option against the Wildcats this time around. Last year, Kaminsky scored only eight points in the Final Four, as he was limited by foul trouble, and you can bet he has been waiting to redeem himself on college basketball’s biggest stage again.

It is worth noting that this is the first time the Badgers have been underdogs all season, and they have won seven of the last 10 times under that scenario dating back to 2013.

Why pick Kentucky to cover the spread

Kentucky looked to be getting progressively stronger in the Big Dance until Notre Dame nearly ended the school’s bid for perfection in the Midwest Regional final. The Wildcats, like they have just a few times the entire season, looked mortal in that game, but they still prevailed to become the first team in NCAA history to make it to 38-0.

You have to go back to Dec. 27 of last year to find the last time they were favored by less than six points, and they came through then with a 58-50 road victory against the Louisville Cardinals as 5.5-point chalk.

Kentucky has far superior talent compared to Wisconsin and is a much better team than last year’s edition as well. The depth of the Wildcats is unmatched, and keep in mind that center Willie Cauley-Stein missed the 2014 Final Four due to an ankle injury. Cauley-Stein will be one of the key players counted on to defend Kaminsky and should relish this opportunity to hold the probable National Player of the Year in check.

Smart betting pick

The Badgers were unbelievable in their last game, making 12 of 18 shots from beyond the arc, with 10 of them coming in the second half alone.

That extremely high level of shooting will be nearly impossible to duplicate here against these Wildcats, who are the nation’s best defensive team and just survived against one of the country’s best offensive squads in Notre Dame. Bet Kentucky to not only win but cover.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Wisconsin Badgers: No. 5

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 2

March Madness betting trends

Wisconsin is 7-3 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.

Kentucky is 23-3 SU in its last 26 games as a favorite in the tournament.

Kentucky is 1-3 ATS during the tournament.

The under is 7-3 in Kentucky's last 10 games as a favorite in the tournament.

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