Final Four 2015: Updated Odds and Picks for NCAA Tournament Semifinals

Only two games stand between four teams and a national championship.

The Kentucky Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers advanced to the Final Four Saturday, with the Michigan State Spartans and Duke Blue Devils booking their tickets to Indianapolis Sunday.

The biggest story since the tournament began was whether Kentucky could be the first team since Indiana in 1976 to go unbeaten and win a national championship. The road for the Wildcats hasn't been a breeze by any stretch, but they remain unscathed.

A national title would ensure they become one of the immortal teams in history.

Meanwhile, whoever knocks off Kentucky at this stage would also earn a special place in college basketball lore.

Updated Bracket

Schedule

Time (ET)	Matchup	TV Info	Odds	Pick
Sat., April 4
6:09 p.m.	No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke	TBS	TBA	Duke
8:49 p.m.	No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky	TBS	UK (-6)	Wisconsin

Final Four Preview

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky

Did we already witness the one chance for Kentucky to look mortal?

The Wildcats were pushed to the brink by Notre Dame, and were it not for a few questionable decisions by Mike Brey and Jerian Grant, the Fighting Irish might have pulled off the monumental upset. Instead, John Calipari's team remains unbeaten.

After the game, Calipari spoke about his mentality during late-game situations when the score is tight, per Elton Alexander of The Plain Dealer:

"

My mind is never on we may lose. My whole mindset all the time is how are we going to win, how do we win this game. That's all I keep saying to myself, how do we win the game. I want them to know we're not playing not to lose; we play to win. That means be aggressive offensively. And so I'm telling you, I was trying every combination I could just to keep us in the game.

"

Things aren't going to get much easier for Kentucky in the Final Four, with a rematch against Wisconsin on the horizon. Plenty of Badgers players will remember last year's one-point loss to the Wildcats in the national semifinals.

Call me crazy, but I'm going with the upset. Wisconsin is a deep team with plenty of experience in March. In Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, Bo Ryan also has two players who can single-handedly change a game.

Two other factors may also play in the Badgers' favor. They rank first in adjusted offense and 345th in adjusted tempo. Wisconsin isn't a ton of fun to watch, but it's extremely efficient with its possessions.

After Wisconsin narrowly beat North Carolina in the Sweet 16, CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie encapsulated how Ryan's style can be extremely deceiving in terms of perceived success and actual success:

"

Wisconsin dropped a 131.7 offensive rating, and it felt like they struggled for 3/4s of the game. Crazy.

— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) March 27, 2015"

Vice Sports' Patrick Hruby believes the Badgers are on the cutting edge of college basketball trends:

Cincinnati did a great job of slowing the game down against Kentucky and battling the Wildcats inside in the third round. The Bearcats ultimately lost because the talent gap between the two teams was too great.

Wisconsin has the talent to not only follow that blueprint but to also execute it to perfection for 40 minutes.

Winner: Wisconsin

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

After Michigan State's passage to the Elite Eight, Tom Izzo called it the biggest surprise he's ever had in March, per Nicole Auerbach of USA Today:

It would be unfair to say that the Spartans have been using smoke and mirrors to reach the Final Four. They beat the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 teams in their last three games en route to Indianapolis. In those three games, Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville shot a combined 34.1 percent from the field, which illustrates how well Michigan State has played defensively.

Travis Trice also averaged 21.3 points against the Cavaliers, Sooners and Cardinals, providing the kind of dynamic offensive presence needed to lead the Spartans on that end of the floor.

Michigan State may meet its match in the Final Four, though. 247Sports' Jerry Meyer thinks Duke has the perfect combination of skill, focus and coaching acumen:

Behind Kentucky, the Blue Devils have arguably the most pure talent in the country. That's not always a guarantee for success, but it certainly helps.

Duke also proved Sunday that it can win despite not playing all that well and not getting a ton from Jahlil Okafor. As a team, the Blue Devils shot 37.5 percent from the field, with Okafor scoring just nine points.

Tyus Jones and Matt Jones stepped up big in the win over Gonzaga, scoring 31 combined points. The real difference-maker, though, was Justise Winslow, who has arguably been one of the top two or three players all tournament.

Draft Express' Jonathan Givony made the point that Winslow doesn't need to score in bunches to impact a game:

Michigan State doesn't have anything like Winslow on its roster, and more importantly, the Spartans have to worry about Winslow potentially taking Trice or Denzel Valentine out of the game. The freshman can guard just about anybody on the court 1 through 4.

The Spartans are a very good team, but the absence of a guy like Winslow is what prevents them from beating a great team like Duke.

Winner: Duke

Note: Final Four odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.