Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting, March Madness Pick

The Michigan State Spartans continue their remarkable run in the 2015 NCAA men's basketball tournament and can become the second No. 7 seed in as many years to advance to the Final Four with a victory against the fourth-seeded Louisville Cardinals in the East Regional final Sunday in Syracuse.

The Connecticut Huskies became the first No. 7 seed to win the national championship a year ago, and the Spartans are trying to duplicate that feat after getting by the third-seeded Oklahoma Sooners, 62-58, as one-point favorites in the Sweet 16 Friday. In addition, the Cardinals are attempting to make the Final Four for the third time in four years following a 75-65 win over the eighth-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack as 2.5-point favorites.

Opening spread

The Spartans opened as one-point favorites; the total was 129.5. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Michigan State to cover the spread?

Much like the Huskies last year, Michigan State seems to be a team on a mission, with everything set up perfectly for a run to the Final Four. The Spartans have knocked out the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds en route to the Elite Eight and essentially saw two of their top players carry them past the Sooners, with Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine combining for 42 of their 62 points.

Both Trice and Valentine were money from beyond the three-point arc against Oklahoma, connecting on eight of 20 attempts (40 percent). The duo also combined to make all eight free-throw attempts. The rest of their teammates went a combined 1-of-8.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is now 12-9 in his career as the lower-seeded team, the best winning percentage in NCAA tournament history. And there is definitely a reason the Spartans were favored in their last game and will be here, too.

Why pick Louisville to cover the spread?

If any team can match up with Michigan State, it is Louisville. Cardinals head coach Rick Pitino gets as much from his players as anybody in the country, including Izzo, which is why they are on the brink of another Final Four appearance.

Louisville played its best overall game of the tournament against North Carolina State, pulling away late in the second half after trailing 33-31 at halftime. Four starters scored in double figures, led by Montrezl Harrell with 24 points on 9-of-12 shooting, while Terry Rozier added 17 and had a game-high 14 rebounds as a 6'1" guard.

That type of effort is exactly what the Cardinals need to beat the Spartans.

In its previous two Elite Eight games in 2012 and 2013, Louisville not only won to advance to the Final Four but also covered the spread along the way.

Smart betting pick

This is an outstanding coaching matchup—one that Izzo won back in 2009, when his second-seeded Michigan State team upset the top-seeded Cardinals 64-52 as a 6.5-point underdog in the Midwest Regional final. Izzo’s Spartans went on to get crushed, 89-72, by the North Carolina Tar Heels in the national title game. This year's team is similar to that squad.

Bet history to repeat itself here as Michigan State moves on with another win and covers against Louisville—only this time as a favorite.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Michigan State Spartans: No. 127

Louisville Cardinals: No. 111

March Madness betting trends

Lower seeds are 13-7 ATS since 2010 in the Elite Eight.

Underdogs are 12-8 ATS since 2010 in the Elite Eight.

Michigan State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.

Note: All spread and betting-line data powered by Odds Shark—download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.