Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats Odds, March Madness Analysis

The top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats finally look like the team everybody was raving about heading into the 2015 NCAA tournament. Now only the third-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish stand in the way of their second consecutive Final Four appearance, as the Wildcats will meet them in the Midwest Regional Final on Saturday in Cleveland.

This game represents the fifth time since 2000 that a team has been a double-digit underdog in Elite Eight action. Florida vs Dayton in 2014 and Kansas vs VCU in 2011 were the most recent examples.

Kentucky improved to 9-2-1 against the spread in its last 12 games as a double-digit favorite with a 78-39 shellacking of the fifth-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Notre Dame moved on to the Elite Eight by breaking an eight-game skid ATS in the Big Dance with an 81-70 upset of the seventh-seeded Wichita State Shockers as 2-point underdogs.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as 10.5-point favorites and the number was climbing Saturday; the total was 137. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Notre Dame to cover the spread

The Fighting Irish have played with a ton of heart so far in the NCAA tournament, rebounding nicely whenever faced with adversity. Even though they failed to cover the spread in either of their first two games against the 14th-seeded Northeastern Huskies and sixth-seeded Butler Bulldogs to extend their losing streak versus the line to eight, they have thrived as dogs this season and came through yet again in their latest victory against Wichita State.

Notre Dame is 7-2 ATS in its past nine games as a dog, winning six of those straight-up over the likes of the Shockers, Duke Blue Devils (twice), North Carolina Tar Heels (twice) and Louisville Cardinals. The team suffered its only setback since February 7 at the hands of the Syracuse Orange in a 65-60 home loss as an 8.5-point favorite on February 24, putting together a string of 11 wins in 12 games with eight covers during that stretch.

Why pick Kentucky to cover the spread

What more can you say about the Wildcats other than their final scoring margin against the Mountaineers on Thursday. Granted, Kentucky did not cover its first two games of the Big Dance despite winning them by an average of 18 points. But this team is an offensive and defensive machine when properly motivated, and West Virginia freshman Daxter Miles Jr. certainly helped beforehand by predicting a loss.

When arguably your best player (Karl-Anthony Towns) finishes with one point, two rebounds and four fouls, and you still double up your opponent, you have a special squad. And it will likely take a special effort to hand these Wildcats their first loss, something Miles and the Mountaineers apparently left back at the team hotel.

Kentucky has won 16 straight games by more than 10 points when favored by double digits, something bettors should keep in mind leading up to tip.

Smart betting pick

The biggest problem the Fighting Irish have in this matchup is a lack of size inside, as they do not really have any players who can block shots or protect the rim against the rangy Wildcats. Depth is also a major concern for Notre Dame, and the closest comparison that can be made to this spot is when the team lost 90-60 to Duke as a 9.5-point underdog back on February 7.

While Notre Dame’s other four losses were all decided by six points or less, none were against an opponent this good. Slaying the dragon will prove to be too much for the Irish, as will covering the spread.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: No. 87

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 2

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