Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers: Betting Line, March Madness Analysis

A rematch of last year’s West regional final is on tap for the Staples Center in Los Angeles on Saturday, as the top-seeded Wisconsin Badgers square off against the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats for a spot in the Final Four.

The Badgers were the No. 2 seed a year ago when they upset the top-seeded Wildcats 64-63 in overtime as 3.5-point underdogs in Anaheim.

Arizona backers are hoping a slight change of scenery and seeding may be the difference this time around. However, they have lost four straight Elite 8 games dating to 2001, according to the Odds Shark database.

On the positive side, Arizona is 8-2 ATS in 10 games vs No. 1 seeds since 1996.

Opening Spread

The Wildcats opened as two-point favorites. The total was 134.

Why Arizona Will Cover the Spread

The Wildcats simply had no answer for Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky in last year’s Elite Eight loss, as the big man went off for a game-high 28 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to single-handedly take his team to the Final Four.

The Badgers needed every one of those points too, and Arizona should be able to make some key adjustments defensively to make sure Kaminsky does not have a similar performance.

The Wildcats will have a different look about them as well heading into this meeting, with freshman Stanley Johnson replacing then-freshman Aaron Gordon, who really struggled offensively against Wisconsin with eight points on 3-of-11 shooting in his final game before heading to the NBA.

Johnson had 12 points and six rebounds in Arizona’s 68-60 win over the sixth-seeded Xavier Musketeers in the Sweet 16.

The Wildcats failed to cover the spread as 11.5-point favorites against the Musketeers but should be much more motivated to avenge their loss to Wisconsin.

Why Wisconsin Will Cover the Spread

The Badgers were lucky to cover the number in their 79-72 victory against the fourth-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels on Thursday, as the final margin was their biggest lead of the game and was just enough to beat the six-point line.

But Wisconsin still prevailed and was able to overcome the Tar Heels making nearly 62 percent of their three-point attempts (8-of-13).

Even though Kaminsky won Big Ten Player of the Year honors this year, the Badgers are a much more well-rounded team than when they last met Arizona. Just look at their win over the Tar Heels, with Sam Dekker scoring a career-high 23 points to go along with 19 from Kaminsky and 12 from Nigel Hayes.

Wisconsin also now has point guard Traevon Jackson back after he missed 19 games due to a foot injury, giving the team even more depth. Jackson had 10 points and five assists in last year’s game against the Wildcats.

Smart Betting Pick

While both of these teams were fortunate to advance to the Elite Eight, there is no doubt they are the best of the West region and belong here.

Arizona’s somewhat close victory against Xavier is more of a concern, though, because Wisconsin will play a similar style and has superior players to execute that game plan.

The Badgers are also a better team than they were last year, which is obviously why they were awarded the top seed when they and the Wildcats had identical records and each won their conference tournaments.

Finally, Wisconsin is 6-2-1 against the spread in its last nine games as an underdog, winning six straight up. Bet the Badgers again.

Odds Shark Power Rankings

• Arizona Wildcats: No. 1
• Wisconsin Badgers: No. 5

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