Selections for Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Races

With just five weeks until the Kentucky Derby, the next three Saturdays will be crucial in determining which 20 horses make it into the starting gate on the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs. 

There are three Road to the Derby points races on tap on Saturday–the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds and the $2 million UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai.

Each of the three races offers up 100-40-20-10 points, respectively, to the top four finishers toward entry into the Kentucky Derby field. El Kabeir is currently the leader in the Kentucky Derby points standings with 75, but will be displaced from the top spot after Saturday’s races.

The Florida Derby has proved to be a key prep race for the Run for the Roses. Orb (2013), Big Brown (2008) and Barbaro (2006) are recent Kentucky Derby winners that used the Florida Derby as a tune-up.

The Louisiana Derby has produced a couple of long shots that ran second in the Kentucky Derby: Commanding Curve last year at 37-1 and Golden Soul at 34-1 in 2013.

The Louisiana Derby has produced a pair of recent Belmont Stakes winners in Palace Malice in 2013 and Drosselmeyer in 2010.

Among the top Derby contenders in action this Saturday in the Florida Derby are Upstart and Itsaknockout—who are both at 20-1 in early Kentucky Derby odds at Odds Shark—and International Star, who headlines the Louisiana Derby field and is also listed at 20-1 odds for the Kentucky Derby.

Selections for Florida Derby

Win

Materiality makes his first start in a graded stake after chasing the early pace, getting carried out wide and drawing away to win the Islamorada Handicap by 5 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park going nine furlongs. The runner-up Stanford is running earlier on Saturday in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds, so it will be good to see how that guy does. Our top pick broke his maiden in the slop in his debut two back, going six furlongs and was up on the pace in that outing.

There is not much early speed signed up to go in this race, and this colt appears to have the tactical edge over the more highly regarded runners in this field. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, won this race last year with Constitution, and won in 2007 with Scat Daddy. The colt is a half-brother to My Miss Sophia ($418,300), who won the 2014 Gazelle (G2) and ran second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Place

Upstart crossed the wire in front in the Fountain of Youth, but was disqualified for interfering with Itsaknockout in the stretch, who I do not think was going to get by him inside the final furlong. His win in the Holy Bull (G2) two back was one of the more impressive outings by a Derby contender this spring.

He was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall, just a nose behind Carpe Diem for the runner-up spot. If he runs back to his Holy Bull effort, he will be tough. Also note he was giving Itsaknockout six pounds last out and they are at even weights today.

Show

Itsaknockout was beaten 2 3/4 lengths after getting carried out and having to check in the stretch. It was a solid effort in his stakes debut, and although it did not look to me like he was going to get past Upstart, he certainly is eligible to move forward off that outing. The Pletcher trainee should get a good tracking trip sitting close to the pace and has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs.

Selections for Louisiana Derby

Win

Keen Ice checked in third in the Risen Star (G2) last out, beaten 2 3/4 lengths for the top spot, but he may be able to turn the tables Sautrday. The colt has shown improvement in each outing and looks primed for a top effort in his third start of the year for the Dale Romans barn.

It looks as if the colt should get an honest pace to run at and he should benefit from the extra ground. He is bred to get nine furlongs, by Curlin and the first foal to race out of an Awesome Again mare. The colt put in a couple of sharp works at Gulfstream Park since his last outing.

Place

War Story ran second to International Star in both the LeComte and Risen Star. The gelding has four career starts and has failed to get off cleanly in any of his outings. The gelding also will benefit from an honest pace and will be coming late. He has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs, by Northern Afleet out of a Pulpit mare that has dropped one other foal to race—Draw Two ($219,140), who was fourth in both the Virginia Derby (G2) and Secretariat (G1) in 2013.

Show

International Star took the rail home to win his last two starts and is seeking to become the first runner since Friesen Fire in 2009 to sweep the Derby preps at Fair Grounds. The colt has won on turf, poly and dirt, and has landed in the exacta in six of his eight starts. While he is perfect in two trips over the Fair Grounds surface, the outside draw and the potential of a short price is making us look elsewhere.

Kentucky Derby future odds provided by Odds Shark.

Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport