Complete Chicago White Sox 2015 Season Preview
For as bad as the 2013 season was for the Chicago White Sox (the worst campaign since the club’s disastrous 64-97 showing in 1976), 2014 was as promising.
There were exceptional showings from staff ace Chris Sale and rookie first baseman Jose Abreu. Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana took steps forward and several young pitchers, including Zach Putnam and Javy Guerra, showed they belonged in a major league bullpen.
Alas, there were several holes on the White Sox roster left exposed, forcing general manager Rick Hahn to go to work this offseason. In all, he acquired seven mid-to-high-profile players via free agency and trade, dramatically altering the composition of the 25-man roster.
Let’s take a look at how those moves will impact the team in 2015, along with some information on prospects to keep an eye on, breakout candidates and a prediction on where the White Sox will finish in the standings.
Spring Training Recap
1 of 10
There were some eye-opening performances this spring.
At the top of the list has to be the showing by Courtney Hawkins. Going into action Wednesday, he’d put up a .412/.429/.853 slash line with four home runs, three doubles and 10 RBI. He’s on a tear at the plate, showing a level of confidence the fanbase has never seen.
Now, assistant general manager Buddy Bell made sure to temper expectations for Hawkins during a conference call with White Sox bloggers on Tuesday, saying there are still things that need to be worked on. That should not diminish the excellence the outfielder has displayed to this point.
Another player who has made the most of his opportunity is Matt Albers. Sure, he struggled on Tuesday, giving up three unearned runs on four hits, but by and large, he has done enough to make the 25-man roster after signing a minor league contract.
Finally, Micah Johnson entered camp in a battle with Carlos Sanchez for the nod as the Opening Day second baseman and did just about everything right. In sum, Johnson has looked tremendous in the field and has excelled at the plate, posting a .441 batting average with a 1.118 OPS. Quite impressive.
Other than individual performances, there was a marked uptick in aggressiveness on the basepaths following the arrival of baserunning instructor Vince Coleman. Sure, sometimes things didn’t work out as planned (like when J.B. Shuck was thrown out by Jarrod Dyson trying to go from first to third), but the club has looked better on the bases. That will play well into competing in the American League Central.
Let’s get into some injury updates before looking at position groups.
Injury Updates Entering the Season
2 of 10
Chris Sale
Well, this is good news. According to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, left-hander Chris Sale is set to throw a simulated game on Friday to test his lateral movement in advance of pitching in an actual game.
It is the latest in a series of positive outcomes following the injury to his foot. In fact, general manager Rick Hahn told Bleacher Report in a call on Tuesday that the club may not need to find a replacement in the rotation to start the season given the number of off days in the beginning of April.
Jesse Crain
For the most part, the news surrounding pitcher Jesse Crain had been positive. Unfortunately, a recent setback cost him a shot at making the Opening Day roster, per CSN Chicago’s Dan Hayes.
Considering he hadn’t thrown a major league pitch since 2013, however, the amount of progress he had made has to be encouraging. According to Hahn, the news was “kind of expected,” per Hayes. Expect more information to be released in due time and for Crain to help the White Sox at some point this season.
Conor Gillaspie
As reported by ESPNChicago.com’s Doug Padilla, Conor Gillaspie has been plagued by plantar fasciitis all spring. Manager Robin Ventura elaborates:
"Conor has had some foot issues early in camp where I don't think he's where he's going to be (later in the season). It's going to improve. He looks better with his glove work but his range, with plantar fasciitis early, he's getting over it. Once he gets over that he'll have better range."
As Padilla noted, Gillaspie has not confirmed his manager’s assessment to be true, but it does help explain the meager .242/.265/.303 the third baseman has put up going into action on Wednesday.
Lineup Preview
3 of 10
Projected Lineup
| Player | 2014 Stats |
| 1. Adam Eaton, CF | 123 G, .300/.362/.401, 146 H, 26 2B, 10 3B |
| 2. Melky Cabrera, LF | 139 G, .301/.351/.458, 171H, 35 2B, 16 HR, 73 RBI |
| 3. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH | 145 G, .317/.383/.581, 176 H, 35 2B, 36 HR, 107 RBI |
| 4. Adam LaRoche, DH/1B | 140 G, .259/.362/.455, 128 H, 19 2B, 26 HR, 92 RBI |
| 5. Avisail Garcia, RF | 46 G, .244/.305/.413, 42 H, 7 HR, 29 RBI |
| 6. Alexei Ramirez, SS | 158 G, .273/.305/.408, 170 H, 35 2B, 15 HR, 74 RBI |
| 7. Conor Gillaspie, 3B | 130 G, .282/.336/.416, 131 H, 31 2B, 57 RBI |
| 8. Geovany Soto, C | 24 G, .250/.302/.363, 20 H, 6 2B, 11 RBI |
| 9. Micah Johnson, 2B | 102 G, .294/.351/.403, 123 H, 19 2B, 44 RBI, 22 SB |
*Micah Johnson's statistics are from his time in the minor leagues
Overview
If we look at on-base percentage as the one stat that drives run production, the White Sox are in good shape heading into the 2015 season.
Consider: Each of the top four hitters—Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Adam LaRoche—finished 2014 with an on-base percentage of at least .351. And if we add in the considerable gap and home run power Cabrera, Abreu, LaRoche and No. 5 hitter Avisail Garcia possess, along with Eaton's ample speed, the outlook is even brighter.
And if Alexei Ramirez (who is slated to hit sixth) can stroke the 32 doubles he’s averaged since 2010, his RBI total should go up considerably given the frequency with which the men in front of him reach base. Simply put, the top of the batting order looks solid.
The lower third of the lineup is where things get tricky.
First off, Conor Gillaspie has to finish stronger. Last season, for example, he slashed out at .351/.400/.463 going into June but put up a .255/.309/.397 slash line over the final 94 games. That has to change.
Also, the catcher position is a huge question mark.
We have Geovany Soto slated as the starter for two reasons. First off, he will likely catch Opening Day given his familiarity with Jeff Samardzija, who manager Robin Ventura said would get the start against the Kansas City Royals on April 6, per ESPNChicago.com's Doug Padilla. Second, incumbent starter Tyler Flowers has a propensity to go through long stretches of poor at-bats, which will lead to more plate appearances for Soto.
Finally, Micah Johnson is an unknown.
Don’t take that the wrong way. He has performed admirably this spring, but he has yet to swing a bat during the regular season. If he gets on base with any regularity, he can use his plus speed to effectively turn the lineup over, but if he struggles, it will hurt the group's ability to score runs.
All told, the unit is capable of doing great things given the composition at the top. How well the final three batters do will determine if the lineup can score enough to make a run at the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians.
Rotation Preview
4 of 10
Projected Rotation
| Player | 2014 Stats |
| 1. Chris Sale (L) | 26 GS, 2.17 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 0.966 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 |
| 2. Jeff Samardzija (R) | 33 GS, 2.99 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.065 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 |
| 3. Jose Quintana (L) | 32 GS, 3.32 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.243 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 |
| 4. Hector Noesi (R) | 27 GS, 4.39 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.331 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 |
| 5. John Danks (L) | 32 GS, 4.74 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.441 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 |
Overview
Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana are arguably the best Nos. 1-3 in the American League. If you asked JJ Stankevitz, actually, he would say they are the best group in the AL, citing a combined 14.8 fWAR last season as evidence.
True, there are many other factors to consider, including WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio, but if we consider that Samardzija’s 3.20 FIP last season was the worst among the group, the prognosis for the 2015 season is quite good.
That is, of course, if Hector Noesi and John Danks can hold it together.
Of the two, Noesi seems to be in line for a better season. Flatly, he is throwing the ball better this spring (3 GS, 2.89 ERA, 9.1 IP, 0.643 WHIP) than Danks (3 GS, 6.97 ERA, 10.1 IP 1.355 WHIP) and had a better finish to last season.
Unfortunately, Danks has a $15.75 million salary this season, meaning unless he is moved to the bullpen (highly unlikely), the White Sox are stuck with him dragging the rotation down the entirety of the year.
One other thing to keep in mind is that unlike past seasons, there is help in the minor leagues. Erik Johnson (who is battling a side injury), Carlos Rodon, Scott Carroll and Brad Penny (for the moment, at least) are all options should one of the starters need to miss a start or land on the disabled list. That is considerably more depth than in prior years.
Any way it’s looked at, the rotation is in better shape than it was last season when Felipe Paulino and Johnson were asked to carry the load at the back end of the rotation and Danks was penciled in as the No. 3 starter.
Bullpen Preview
5 of 10
Projected Bullpen
| Player | 2014 Stats |
| CL David Robertson (R) | 63 G, 3.08 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 1.057 WHIP, 13.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 |
| SU Zach Duke (L) | 74 G, 2.45 ERA, 2.14 FIP, 1.125 WHIP, 11.4 K/0, 2.6 BB/9 |
| SU Zach Putnam (R) | 49 G, 1.98 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 1.079 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 |
| Dan Jennings (L) | 47 G, 1.34 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.537 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 |
| Jake Petricka (R) | 67 G, 2.96 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.370 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 |
| Javy Guerra (R) | 42 G, 2.91 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.317 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 |
| Matt Albers (R) | 8 G, 0.90 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.300 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 |
Overview
With three big additions in the form of closer David Robertson and left-handers Zach Duke and Dan Jennings, the White Sox relief corps has undergone a metamorphosis. No longer will the fanbase be subjected to the misgivings of Ronald Bellisario, Matt Lindstrom and Scott Downs.
It is a welcome change.
Consider Robertson, who has put up a 2.20 ERA with a 2.40 FIP and a 1.097 WHIP over the last four seasons. Brought in to handle the ninth inning, his presence alone should solidify a problem area.
And then there is Duke. He exploded on the scene last year, posting career highs in ERA, FIP, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio in seasons he’s appeared in more than 14 games. His abilities as a lefty in front of Robertson provide the type of balance the White Sox have lacked since Matt Thornton was at the top of his game three years ago.
The acquisitions also allow guys like Zach Putnam, Javy Guerra and Jake Petricka to slot down in the bullpen, maximizing their abilities and taking undue pressure off inexperienced arms. Throw a veteran arm like Matt Albers into the mix, and the unit is poised to take a large step forward this season.
It must be noted that Jesse Crain and Nate Jones should contribute at some point this season. Their future contributions will provide added legitimacy to the bullpen and help offset the eventual loss of an arm to injury down the road.
Prospects to Watch
6 of 10
There are many intriguing prospects to keep an eye on, including Courtney Hawkins, Spencer Adams, Tim Anderson and Jacob May. We will keep things pointed here, however, and focus on the two who are most likely to see time in the big leagues this season.
Carlos Rodon
Heading into what could be his final start of the spring Wednesday evening, Carlos Rodon had a 5.40 ERA with a 1.440 WHIP over three starts and 8.1 innings. Not exactly numbers that jump off the stat sheet.
Looking at his production strictly in quantifiable terms, however, would be doing the 2014 first-round selection a disservice. He has poise, a fastball and slider that won’t quit and is working on a changeup that will complete an already dominant repertoire.
Needless to say, Rodon will earn a promotion this year, likely in advance of Sept. 1. Frankly, the only question is if he will be inserted immediately into the rotation or if he will be asked to be a power lefty in the bullpen. Either way, Rodon is one to watch.
Francellis Montas
Francellis Montas is in a similar position.
He is young, has a cannon for an arm, a fantastic slider and will earn a promotion to the White Sox. Unlike Rodon, however, his control isn’t nearly as refined, meaning he needs to show some improvement at Double-A Birmingham before joining the 25-man roster.
As part of the trade that sent Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox two seasons ago, Montas was dominant at High-A last year, posting a 1.60 ERA over 10 starts. His quickest path to the bigs is likely as a flame-throwing righty out of the bullpen, but the plan is to make him a starter in the rotation, per ESPN Insider Keith Law.
Breakout Candidates
7 of 10
When discussing breakout candidates, there are really only two that bear mentioning. After all, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Zach Putnam and others had their breakthrough seasons last year.
Avisail Garcia
As the headliner in the trade that sent Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox in 2013, Avisail Garcia seemed poised to have a breakout campaign last year before tearing the labrum in his left shoulder while diving for a sinking line drive last April.
That makes this season the one in which Garcia puts all five tools together and delivers on his vast potential. And make no mistake, the White Sox are counting on just that. He is penciled into the five-hole in a revamped lineup and will see plenty of RBI opportunities given the speed and on-base percentages of the guys hitting in front of him.
Now the forecasts for Garcia’s output this season vary, but 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 80 RBI is not out of the question. If he can deliver a line like that, the White Sox are in business.
Micah Johnson
No one had a better spring than Micah Johnson.
True, Courtney Hawkins delivered the best power numbers on the team, putting the specter of the last two minor league seasons behind him in the process, but he never had a chance to break camp with the White Sox. Johnson, on the other hand, was fighting for a roster spot and seized the opportunity, doing just about everything right.
Considering he will bat ninth in the order (we are predicting he wins the job), the pressure should be at a minimum. And from all accounts, he has the mentality to get the job done.
Even if he fails to hit .275, Johnson can do immense damage with his ability to reach base (lifetime .366 OBP in the minors) and his speed. In other words, just do what he does best: get on base and cause trouble once he gets there. Expect big things from the left-handed hitter in 2015.
Keys to Success
8 of 10
Unlike recent seasons, the White Sox don't need everything to go right in order to field a competitive team. General manager Rick Hahn did much of the heavy lifting this offseason when he added Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, Zach Duke and the like.
As such, we won’t get into every detail, including bullpen production and the bottom of the batting order. Rather, let’s look at two areas that stand out as things that must happen in order for the White Sox to contend for an American League Central title.
Don't Let the Regression Bug Bite
If you’re not familiar, there were a couple of players who had some inflated peripherals in 2014.
First off, Jose Abreu was fantastic last season, but even he has a metric that is cause for concern. Namely, a .356 batting average on balls in play (BaBIP). And seeing as how FanGraphs has the league average for BaBIP around .300, we can see some of Abreu’s success in his rookie year was the result of a statistic bound to go down.
True, much of the reason he finished with such a high average in this category is that he makes solid contact more often than not, but the fact remains, his .383 on-base percentage was in large part due to an inordinately high BaBIP. Any way it’s looked at, Abreu must find a way to use his considerable abilities at the plate to lift his walk rate above last season’s 8.2 percent.
Like Abreu, Adam Eaton had an inflated .359 BaBIP. And given that one of his greatest strengths is his ability to reach base, a precipitous drop in this area could prove problematic. And like Abreu, it will be imperative that Eaton improve on the 8.0 percent walk rate he had last year.
If each man can avoid a large regression in OBP, the lineup should prosper. If, however, either man fails to offset what is sure to be a natural regression in BaBIP by drawing walks, the offense could be compromised.
Fourth and Fifth Starter Success
As we mentioned earlier, there is little doubt that Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana will hold up their end of the bargain. The onus to have more quality starts than not will fall squarely on the shoulders of Hector Noesi and John Danks.
And make no mistake—it will be a difficult task.
First off, Danks hasn’t had anything in the way of sustained success since 2010, when he compiled a 15-12 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.216 WHIP. If he fails to log at least six innings per outing and hold opposing offenses in check, the White Sox lineup will have a hard time staying in games.
Likewise, Noesi needs to prove that the 13 quality starts he posted over his final 21 starts was not a fluke. So far this spring, he has proved up to the task, posting a 2.89 ERA over 9.1 innings heading into a minor league outing on Wednesday.
If both men are up to the task, the path to a division title becomes a bit easier. If they struggle, the pressure on the bullpen and the top of the rotation increases considerably.
Consider Noesi and Danks the biggest keys to success in 2015.
Best White Sox Twitter Follows
9 of 10
There is no such thing as too much information, especially as it relates to the White Sox. In no particular order, here are 10 recommended Twitter follows this season for all discerning fans:
Scott Merkin, MLB.com: @scottmerkin
Dan Hayes, CSNChicago.com: @CSNHayes
Colleen Kane, Chicago Tribune: @ChiTribKane
Daryl Van Schouwen, Chicago Sun Times: @CST_soxvan
Scot Gregor, Daily Herald: @scotgregor
The Catbird Seat: @TheCatbird_Seat
South Side Sox: @SouthSideSox
Future Sox (for prospect information): @FutureSox
Christopher Kamka (all manner of stats): @ckamka
Comiskey Park Hitmen (in-game updates): @CPHSox
If we missed any follows worth mentioning, please post in the comment section.
2015 White Sox Outlook
10 of 10
Even after having one of the better offseasons in recent memory for any MLB general manager, Rick Hahn’s club isn’t getting much love. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, for example, have the White Sox winning 78 games this season, good for a third-place finish in the American League Central.
We’re not buying it.
Not to knock the algorithm BP uses to come to its conclusion, of course, but it is hard to believe that with the improvements to the pitching staff and the top of the lineup, the White Sox won’t improve more than five games over last season. That is especially true when we consider that Dayan Viciedo and Adam Dunn each logged more than 430 plate appearances, and Ronald Belisario and Scott Downs appeared in 62 and 38 games, respectively.
Flat out, the White Sox are better than 78 wins.
We have a grander vision.
Projected Finish: 87-75 (second in AL Central), second wild-card spot
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com and are accurate as of game time Wednesday, March 25. Contract information is from Cot's Contracts. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
Follow @MatthewSmithBR
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Rodgers Gets 'Rare' Tender")
.jpg?w=600 "Downs: I Was Bored in CFB")
.png?w=600 "NBA Fans Rip Pistons After Magic Go Up 3-1")
.jpg?w=600 "Ranking Best FAs Still Available")
.jpg?w=600 "New Report on Stafford's Contract Status")
