What Is Adrian Peterson Really Worth?

A breaking point in the showdown between Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings is coming. And only once it finally arrives will the picture of Peterson's true value to the Vikings and the rest of the league become crystal clear. 

For now, the duel rages on, with Peterson pacing one way with his finger on the trigger and the Vikings hesitantly strutting away in the opposite direction. When both sides turn a final decision should be just a click away. 

On Monday, Peterson's agent Ben Dogra fired his most definitive shot yet. 

"We want out of Minnesota," Dogra said from the NFL owners meetings, via Jarrett Bell of USA Today. 

Meanwhile, the Vikings continue to hold firm on their stance, seemingly incapable of bluffing or moving an inch here or there. 

"He's under contract with us," general manager Rick Spielman said, per Bell. "We are focused on the 2015 season and expect Adrian to be a part of that. Our whole focus is getting ready for that season with Adrian."

Head coach Mike Zimmer stuck to the company line Wednesday. 

"We have no plans to trade Adrian," Zimmer said, via Kevin Seifert of ESPN. He also told Seifert that the Vikings "fully expect" Peterson to remain in Minnesota. 

The Vikings have Peterson under contract for the next three seasons. While Peterson is prepared to fire and depart the scene, the Vikings still hold the biggest gun. The club is in no way required to cave to Peterson's demands, and the team's salary cap is currently structured to hold his enormous 2015 salary. Peterson can play hard ball all spring and summer, but the Vikings will still make the final call on where he plays his football in the fall.

When a final decision is levied, worth will be established.  

Determining Peterson's value—both in terms of what he could fetch in a trade and his price in dollars (assuming some kind of contract restructure)—is nothing more than guess work at this point. With no way to gaze into the future not yet established (thanks, Obama), it'll take a peek into the past to help set some set of parameters on Peterson's current value. 

Recent NFL history doesn't provide many helpful precedents. 

One of the closer parallels to Peterson is probably Darren Sproles, a productive, age-30 running back who was dealt from the New Orleans Saints to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2014. The cost for Philadelphia was only a fifth-round pick. But Sproles isn't in the same stratosphere as Peterson in terms of natural ability and pure production as a running back, so the example is mostly null. 

In 2013, the Cleveland Browns famously sent former No. 3 overall pick Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a first-round pick. Richardson turned out to be a historic bust, but at the time of the deal, he was considered a young, talented and ascending player. Peterson is certainly talented, but he's not young and he's no longer ascending. 

Andy King/Associated Press

The best example might be LeSean McCoy. Just last month, the Eagles sent McCoy—the NFL's rushing champion in 2013—to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for linebacker Kiko Alonso. While still only 26 (he turns 27 in July), he's at least in proximity to Peterson in terms of talent and production at the running back position. 

In the deal, the Eagles received back a potential Pro Bowl linebacker in Alonso, who is still only 24. He was a standout rookie in 2013 before a torn ACL cost him the entire 2014 season. There's some uncertainty in the goods coming back to Philadelphia, but if right and healthy, Alonso must be considered nothing short of a useful resource. He's a three-down tackle machine and an asset in coverage, or the very definition of today's ideal modern inside linebacker. 

The translation here: While draft-pick compensation remains hard to pin down, it's clear Peterson could be used to acquire a young, talented player from a club that wants the running back. 

To be fair, player-for-player swaps remain rare in the NFL. But the league's resistance to wheeling and dealing seems to have weakened over the last 30 or so days, so it can't be completely ruled out either. 

Other notable deals from the not-so-distant past include the Saints sending tight end Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks for Pro Bowl center Max Unger and a first-round pick, the Vikings dealing receiver Percy Harvin to the Seahawks for picks in the first and seventh round and a future third, and the Miami Dolphins trading receiver Brandon Marshall to the Chicago Bears for two third-round picks.

The St. Louis Rams once acquired Marshall Faulk for second- and fifth-round picks. Even the Brett Favre trade of 2008 is worth mentioning, as the Green Bay Packers sent the un-retired and disgruntled gunslinger to the New York Jets for what turned out to be a fourth-round selection. 

Pick your combination. The reality might just be that Peterson is a unique case study in which no past transaction can accurately gauge his trade market. 

His contract value is easier to nail down. 

Peterson is currently entering the final three years of the six-year, $86 million deal he signed with Minnesota in 2011. 

Here is how those three years look on the Vikings' cap, per Spotrac: 

	Base	Bonus	Workout	Cap Hit	Dead Cap
2015	$12.75M	$2.4M	$250K	$15.4M	$2.4M
2016	$14.75M	-	$250K	$15.0M	-
2017	$16.75M	-	$250K	$17.0M	-

The key here: no remaining guaranteed money. 

The Vikings still owe $2.4 million of Peterson's prorated signing bonus on the cap. If cut today, he would result in a dead-cap hit of the same amount. But Peterson is currently owed zero guaranteed dollars.

Minnesota can handle his $15.4 million cap hit in 2015. It's now essentially a year-by-year venture for the Vikings. And that can't be comfortable for Peterson, regardless of the money he's due over the remaining years. 

Guaranteed money is the life blood of the NFL. If dealt, Peterson will almost certainly want a restructured deal in which there's guaranteed money up front.

Two recent deals can help shine a light. 

After McCoy was traded to Buffalo, the Bills worked to restructure his deal. The end result was a five-year, $40 million contract, which included over $13 million in signing bonuses and $26 million guaranteed. It was a jackpot moment for McCoy, who received a huge payday up front and the comfort of guaranteed money early in the contract. 

A few days into free agency, another running back cashed in. DeMarco Murray—last season's rushing champ—inked a five-year, $40 million deal with the Eagles. The contract included a $5 million signing bonus and $21 million guaranteed. 

Peterson's last deal included $36 million guaranteed. He won't sniff that number this time around. But his exorbitantly high cap hits over the next three years do give him some leverage in financing a deal worth more per year than both McCoy and Murray. 

The coming months should provide the needed clarity on Peterson's true value. Then again, there's no tangible deadline to spur action, especially on Minnesota's side. 

A trade and restructured contract is the most likely outcome if the two sides can't eventually see eye-to-eye. The Vikings would likely return an asset or two, clear cap space and remove a potential headache, while also losing a top player for the franchise. 

But the Vikings can also dig in, continue a consistent message publicly and hope Peterson reverses course. 

If he sticks around and plays on his current deal, the Vikings will have made a strong statement. It will become very clear that Minnesota thinks Peterson is still a player worth over $15 million on the cap. And it's certainly possible he is, even after hitting age 30. A fresh, motivated Peterson is probably not one to trifle with. 

All the moving parts make this arguably the most compelling drama of the offseason. Every duel has its end and every player has a value. There's no strong answer for predicting the outcome of the continuing showdown. It's equally difficult to determine how 32 NFL teams now value a once-in-a-generation running back talent coming off a missed season because he beat his three-year-old son with a weapon. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2