NC State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Underdogs on the betting lines are 21-10-1 against the spread in Sweet 16 games over the last four NCAA tournaments, which bodes well for eighth-seeded North Carolina State heading into its East Region Sweet 16 matchup with ACC rival Louisville Friday night in Syracuse.

Opening Spread

The Cardinals opened as 1.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why Pick North Carolina State to Cover the Spread

With 13 losses during the regular season the Wolfpack were lucky just to make the NCAA tournament; now they're two wins away from the Final Four. North Carolina State opened this Dance with a 66-65 victory over LSU then Saturday knocked off top-seeded Villanova, 71-68.

The Pack led by four points at halftime Saturday, helped along by a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Trevor Lacey, and pushed that advantage to a dozen with about 13 minutes to go then held on from there, winning straight-up as 10-point underdogs.

North Carolina State shot 45 percent from the floor Saturday, held the Wildcats to just 31 percent shooting and won the battle on the boards by a 45-32 margin. So the Wolfpack are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games.

Finally, North Carolina State won the only meeting this season with Louisville five weeks ago, 74-65, upsetting the Cardinals outright as 10-point underdogs on the road.

Why Pick Louisville to Cover the Spread

The Cardinals struggled a bit down the stretch this season, going 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS over their last nine games, and they lost their first game in the ACC tournament. But Louisville is also now just two wins away from the Final Four after edging UC Irvine last Friday, 57-55, then beating Northern Iowa Sunday 66-53.

The Cardinals led by nine at the half Sunday, stretched that lead to a dozen early in the second half then withstood a late Panthers rally, hanging on for the outright victory as two-point dogs. Louisville shot 46 percent from the floor, made 17 of 21 free throws and committed just seven turnovers, earning its fourth straight trip to the Sweet 16.

On the season the Cardinals are only shooting 43 percent. But they're harassing foes into shooting just 39 percent, and they've held six of their last eight opponents to 59 points or less.

Smart Betting Pick

North Carolina State just beat the Cardinals a few weeks ago on their home court, turning the ball over only eight times against that Louisville pressure defense. And a case could be made the Wolfpack are the hotter team at the moment. The smart money here lies with the underdog, who might win this game outright.

Power rankings (via Odds Shark power ranks)

North Carolina State Wolfpack: No. 63

Louisville Cardinals: No. 111

March Madness Betting Trends

North Carolina State is 7-2-1 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog.

Louisville had covered six straight Sweet 16 games before failing the past two tries (going 6-2 ATS).

The under is 7-0 the past seven times Louisville has been favored by 1-3 points.

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