NCAA Tournament 2015: Analyzing Championship Odds for Remaining Teams
Despite Kentucky's historic run, there's not a bad bet in the 2015 NCAA tournament with the Sweet 16 approaching.
It's an eye-of-the-beholder sort of thing, as most of the odds are too tantalizing to not sit back and consider. The lone exception may be UCLA, the team most thought didn't deserve to be in the bracket in the first place (wrong), but Las Vegas has crafted quite an interesting set of lines.
At this point, it's all about payouts. Kentucky won't pay out well, but so it goes. Can't get rich without a lottery ticket, right?
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Below, let's take a look at how Las Vegas feels about each team's title hopes and break down a few notable numbers to digest before throwing down precious coin.
All Your Bracket Essentials
2015 Sweet 16 Schedule
| Time (ET) | Matchup | TV | Pick |
| 7:15 p.m. | No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Wichita State | CBS | Notre Dame |
| 7:47 p.m. | No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 North Carolina | TBS | Wisconsin |
| 9:45 p.m. | No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 5 West Virginia | CBS | Kentucky |
| 10:17 p.m. | No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 6 Xavier | TBS | Arizona |
| 7:15 p.m. | No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA | CBS | Gonzaga |
| 7:37 p.m. | No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 8 North Carolina State | TBS | NC State |
| 9:45 p.m. | No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 Utah | CBS | Duke |
| 10:07 p.m. | No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Michigan State | TBS | MSU |
National Title Odds
| Kentucky | 1-1 |
| Arizona | 6-1 |
| Duke | 13-2 |
| Wisconsin | 9-1 |
| Gonzaga | 10-1 |
| Michigan State | 15-1 |
| North Carolina | 25-1 |
| Notre Dame | 28-1 |
| Utah | 28-1 |
| Louisville | 30-1 |
| Oklahoma | 45-1 |
| NC State | 50-1 |
| Wichita State | 50-1 |
| Xavier | 70-1 |
| UCLA | 75-1 |
| West Virginia | 85-1 |
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark on March 24 at 1 p.m. ET.
Top Bet After Kentucky: Arizona
Kentucky is boring and in no way a risk.
Arizona is a close second and pays out in much better fashion, but it isn't so much of a risk that a bet resembles throwing cash right into a dumpster fire.
Perhaps no team after Kentucky is more dominant than the Wildcats right now. In fact, over at KenPom.com, the Wildcats rank only behind Kentucky overall, seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Coach Sean Miller's team used a second-round encounter with No. 15 Texas Southern as a warmup, winning 93-72. There, the Wildcats shot 60.4 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from deep with all five starters in double digits led by a game-high 23 points from Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
As expected, right? Most figured a third-round encounter with a strong Ohio State team, led by potential top-10 NBA draft pick D'Angelo Russell, would prove a good test.
Nope—Arizona's suffocating defense forced Russell to shoot 3-of-19 from the field and the Buckeyes as a whole 38.5 percent in the 73-58 rout.
The rest of Arizona's path is intimidating. It will take holding off Xavier before a potential clash with the West's top-seeded Wisconsin to reach the promised land. At the very least, there's little doubt the Wildcats can take down the sixth-seeded Musketeers, as ESPN Stats & Info offers a staggering note:
If there's one team left standing capable of slowing Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and matching up from an athletic standpoint with Kentucky, it would be Arizona.
Bettors can do much worse in a field of 16 with an overwhelming favorite.
Underdog to Trust: NC State
Look out for the North Carolina State Wolfpack.
The odds pay out well, the path so far impressive and the path ahead attractive.
Ranked just 40th in RPI, few put a ton of stock in coach Mark Gottfried's team going into the tournament. Fine, as over at KenPom.com it ranks 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 83rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
How things change once a team is on the court, though.
NC State slipped past LSU in 66-65 fashion, casting more doubt on the Wolfpack. They lost the rebounding battle, shot 20.8 percent from deep and turned the ball over 11 times.
Going into a showdown with No. 1 Villanova, most perhaps already updated their brackets to advance the top seed. Instead, NC State shot 45.3 percent from the floor, won the battle on the glass 45-32 and escaped with a 71-68 victory.
How sudden the outlook can change.
Now the Wolfpack are one of the scariest teams left in the running. It says a lot when Las Vegas itself is sweating over them, as ESPN.com's David Purdum captures:
"After the bracket was released, CG Technology posted NC State at 250-1 to win the tournament and took six bets at $200 or more, including a $400 wager, on the Wolfpack.
"They're our largest liability," CG Technology vice president of risk management Jason Simbal said.
"
Not convincing? Digest a bit of history offered by ESPN Stats & Info:
To be fair, the rest of the path isn't so simple. Next up is a date with a Rick Pitino-led Louisville team, though it's important to point out the Wolfpack already feature a road upset of those same Cardinals this season.
Further advancement may lead to an encounter with a Tom Izzo-led Michigan State team before being one of the last teams left standing.
It seems a lot, but the Wolfpack have already come a long way. With strong momentum, history and a solid schedule on their side, bettors can make a quality investment with the Wolfpack, one capable of paying off in a big way.
Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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