West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting, March Madness Analysis

The top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats may not have covered the spread in either of their first two games of the 2015 NCAA tournament, but they remain on track for a second straight Elite Eight berth if they can just get by the fifth-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers in the Sweet 16 Thursday in Cleveland.

The unbeaten Wildcats are still the heavy favorites to win the Big Dance, while the Mountaineers will hope to upset them for the second time in six years after beating them in the 2010 East Regional Final as four-point underdogs.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as 12.5-point favorites (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick West Virginia to cover the spread

West Virginia is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine games and knows Kentucky well considering this will be the third time the schools will have met in the tournament over the past six years. The two teams split the previous two postseason meetings, and the Mountaineers beat an arguably better Wildcats squad five years ago that featured John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

Granted, that Kentucky team was not undefeated at the time, but the star power was greater than this current group.

Regardless, West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins has done a masterful job defensively in the Big Dance so far, as his team has covered both of its games despite not scoring 70 points in either one with the under cashing each time. If the Mountaineers can slow down the Wildcats and limit their possessions, they will have a shot to stay within double digits.

Why pick Kentucky to cover the spread

Kentucky won both of its first two games in the tournament by double digits, yet critics complain that is not good enough. The spreads were simply too high for the Wildcats to cover at the end, and the motivation to win by such big margins has not been there for this team.

Keep in mind, the Wildcats did at least hit the number in both games, leading the 16th-seeded Hampton Pirates by as many as 35 points and the eighth-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats by as much as 19 before easing up late each time. That being said, Kentucky is still the most talented team in the field and capable of turning a close game into a blowout faster than any other.

As the Wildcats continue to move deeper into the tourney, their motivation is growing, and they are becoming even more dangerous. In fact, they are an impressive 10-2 straight up and 9-3 against the spread in the Sweet 16 since 1996.

Smart betting pick

This is the round when Kentucky starts to get even more serious about winning the national title, with a return to the Final Four only a couple wins away. Despite not covering the last two games, the Wildcats are 8-2-1 ATS in their previous 11 games as double-digit favorites and have won 15 straight by more than 10 points under that scenario.

The West Virginia team that pulled off the upset in 2010 was a talented team, too, as the second seed in the East. These Mountaineers have been a good story through the first two rounds, but they are no match for Kentucky here and will not cover.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

West Virginia Mountaineers: No. 69

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 2

March Madness betting trends

West Virginia is 4-1 ATS in the Sweet 16.

Kentucky is 8-2-1 ATS in its past 11 games as a double-digit favorite.

Kentucky is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in the Sweet 16 since 1996.

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