Preview and Prediction for the 2015 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio
You can almost smell the Masters as many of the tour’s best players head to Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open. In a state known for football, the PGA Tour travels to Texas for two separate fossil-fuel themed tournaments over the next two weeks.
We have the Valero in San Antonio and the Shell Houston Open in Houston next week. Upton Sinclair would be proud.
The field for the Valero Texas Open is strong as a longhorn, with No. 6 Jordan Spieth and world No. 7 Jim Furyk. There’s also Matt Every, now a two-time winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Martin Kaymer, 2014’s U.S. Open winner.
Phil Mickelson makes his return to golf after finishing tied for 31st at the Cadillac Championship at Doral. His season has been up and down, but mainly down.
For golfers serious about their chances for the Masters, it’s time to get serious, and it all starts with the Valero Texas Open.
Where to Watch and Tournament Info
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Where
TPC San Antonio, AT&T Oaks
7,435 yards, Par 72
San Antonio, TX
What
Total Purse: $6,200,000
Winning Share: $1,116,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday
3-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel
Saturday-Sunday
1-3 p.m. ET, Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., NBC
Biggest Storylines
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Phil Mickelson Returns
Mickelson took a two-week break from competitive golf. He was last seen at Donald Trump’s Doral, where he finished tied for 31st in the first WGC event of the season.
Mickelson, for all his work in the offseason, has found that his candle is flickering. His best finish in five tournaments was at the Honda Classic, where he finished tied for 17th. Lefty missed two cuts and hasn’t shot a round under 70 since Day 3 at the Honda Classic.
His putting has been sour, but that came alive during the Honda Classic, enough for him to say, according to Brian Biggane of the Palm Beach Post, “I’ve made a lot of great putts, and Bones (caddie Jim Mackay) has been reading them better. This is probably one of his best weeks for green reading. They’re very tricky and tough to read. I’m having a tough time, but Bones has been reading them great. It’s been a good putting week.”
Matt Every Going for Two in a Row
Every isn’t exactly a household name, though after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational for the second year in a row, he’s a Bay Hill fixture now.
He drained a 20-foot putt to win the event. Every told the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com):
"I looked over it pretty hard and I didn't see anything. It was a great putt to have under pressure, because I literally had to get it going. It wasn't going to come up short. The last three feet I was begging for it to hang and I was like, "Gosh, these are the one that always lip out. Be so cool to see this one dive in." And it did.
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The key will be for Every to parlay that experience to San Antonio and become the tour’s first multi-tournament winner of the season.
Can Jimmy Walker Get Out of Slump?
Jimmy Walker’s average finish in his first three events this year was third, and that included a win. In his past three events, his average finish is 31.
What’s been a mainstay is his putting. He ranks ninth on tour in total putting, and, with just 271 putts in nine rounds of golf (30.11 per round), that will help him contend in every even this year.
“It's funny, the better I play the more responsibility I feel to keep that up and personally for me it's fun,” Walker told Steve DiMeglio of USA Today. “I love playing, I love playing good, and it's fun to be up around the top and having a chance."
The Favorites
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Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth is on the kind of upward trajectory that may land him on the final green at August National Golf Club with Bubba Watson.
Spieth won the Valspar Championship on March 15 in dramatic fashion, and his sights are on becoming the best player in the world.
"(McIlroy is) No. 1 in the world, and that's who everyone is trying to chase,” Spieth said, per Covers. “That's the ultimate goal, to eventually be the best in the world. And this is a great, great steppingstone. Going into the four majors of the year, to have closed one out in this fashion is going to give me a lot of confidence."
Spieth doesn’t have to win in this spot to announce his readiness, but putting together back-to-back strong tournaments will signal his game is Masters-ready.
Dustin Johnson
If Dustin Johnson makes the cut—as he has three times this season in five events—chalk up a top five. In those tournaments he finished tied for fourth at the AT&T Pro Am, finished second in a playoff at the Northern Trust Open and won the Cadillac Championship at Doral.
He returns to the course for the first time since winning at Doral.
"Given that backdrop, how could he challenge the best player in the world? After Johnson’s success at [Doral], that may be about to change. At least, we should all hope it will. The 30-year-old has a level of ability which would place him in the same category as McIlroy should he choose to dedicate himself towards maximising it. … Johnson must now take the next step by becoming the player he has always threatened to be.
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Johnson is bombing his drives, and his irons have been sharp. He’s No. 1 in driving and No. 1 in approaches from 250-275 yards. He’s averaging 28.8 putts per round too, which is otherworldly.
Play like that could win him this tournament and put him in prime striking position at Augusta.
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The Dark Horses
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Kevin Na
Kevin Na must have been laughing—or empathizing—when Henrik Stenson was put on the clock at Bay Hill. Stenson thinks it cost him the tournament.
Na, oft-criticized for playing too slow, was heckled at Bay Hill. One way not to speed up a slow golfer is by heckling him. Na received some support from fans wearing shirts saying, “Kevin Na Worth the Wait!”
Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee said during the pre-round broadcast (h/t SB Nation):
"Jack Nicklaus was slow but ... they called him ‘methodical,’ or ‘thorough,’ or ‘deliberate,’ or ‘idiosyncratic.’ Bernard Langer was probably the slowest player in history. Jim Furyk ... probably the slowest player on this PGA Tour. None of them were criticized or blighted by the stigma of slow play to the extent that Kevin Na is being subjected to.
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Na’s game is tight right now. He has three top 10s in his past three events, including a season-best tied-for-sixth effort at Bay Hill. Na never immediately comes to mind as a player who can win events, but he’s playing the type of golf that makes him a sleeper here.
Jason Dufner
It has been 10 rounds since Jason Dufner has broken 70, but maybe this tournament will be the one where he puts it all together.
Perhaps that will be asking too much of Dufner. He hasn’t won a tournament since 2013 when he won the PGA Championship. If you’re going to win one, make it a major. A former major champion demands respect.
What has tamed Dufner this season so far is putting, especially his first-round putting. He ranks 198th in Thursday putting (30.86) and ninth in putting on Day 2 (27.43). This adds up to thousands upon thousands of dollars lost, speaking nothing of winning these tournaments.
Dufner getting up and winning this event will be a big statement, this after a 2014 season where he battled a nagging neck injury.
Billy Horschel
Billy Horschel, the 2014 FedEx Cup champion, has yet to play the type of clutch golf that won him the $10 million last year. His best finish in 2015 is tied for 22 at the Tournament of Champions.
Not good. Horschel told Biggane of the Palm Beach Post:
"The results haven’t been what I’d like. Making a couple bad swings and missing a couple putts a round, that’s sort of killing me out there. I need to clean it up, and when that happens, I’ll start playing some good golf. I feel really good about what’s about to happen in the next couple of months.
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Horschel is entirely capable to putting together winning shots. He proved that last year. Once he finds it, he’ll be as dangerous as anyone on tour. The question then becomes: When will he find it, and where?
Prediction
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Winner: Jordan Spieth
There's a fire burning in Spieth and it's getting hotter and hotter. That win at the Valspar Championship was money, and he sees great things for himself in the not-too-distant future. He has eyes on McIlory, and finishing in a tie for second at last year's Masters has Spieth thinking big.
"I believe that I'm still far away because I believe that I have to win at least a major or two in order to at least start to significantly progress to that goal (of being No. 1). I think seeing guys like Rory step up and become No. 1 in the world and win major championships—he has four now—for him to do that, yeah. ... In order to take it to the next level and try and win majors, I've got to look to Rory. He's the youngest guy (25), the one with the most success. He's No. 1 in the world and setting the bar.
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Spieth has eyes on Folsbury Flopping over that bar as his ascent to stardom continues.
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