Oregon Ducks vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The top-seeded Wisconsin Badgers meet the eighth-seeded Oregon Ducks in the West Region round of 32 of the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive year Sunday and hope for the same result as 2014.

Last year, the Badgers were the No. 2 seed in the West and knocked out the seventh-seeded Ducks, 85-77, covering the spread as six-point favorites in a game that flew over the 146-point total.

Opening spread

The Badgers opened as 11-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Oregon to cover the spread

Oregon has won 12 of its last 14 games, going 11-3 against the spread during that stretch.

The Ducks took care of business in a pick’em matchup with the ninth-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys in the round of 64, winning, 79-73, Friday behind Joseph Young’s game-high 27 points. Young won Pac-12 Player of the Year honors thanks to performances like that, and he will be a matchup nightmare for a Wisconsin team that surrendered 29 points to him last year.

Oregon also shot 55 percent from the field as a team against the Cowboys and made 14 of 18 attempts from the free-throw line (78 percent) to help seal the victory. If the Ducks can continue to play that well offensively, they should be able to give the Badgers another tough test and again stay within double digits.

Why pick Wisconsin to cover the spread

Wisconsin might not have covered the spread as a 20-point favorite in the team’s 86-72 victory against the 16th-seeded Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Friday, but they were extremely impressive offensively nonetheless. The Badgers got a game-high 27 points and 12 rebounds from Frank Kaminsky, while Sam Dekker added 20 points and Nigel Hayes had 15.

They also had a lot of success from beyond the three-point arc, connecting on 11 of 27 shots from long range and outrebounded Coastal Carolina by a 36-25 margin overall.

Wisconsin has won 17 of its past 18 now–including seven in a row–and covered four of six. During the current seven-game winning streak for the Badgers, only one victory has been decided by less than 11 points, with them scoring more than 70 in each of the previous six and the over cashing five times along the way.

Smart betting pick

Oregon played well against Wisconsin last year, holding a double-digit lead in the second half before things fell apart. That disappointment has lingered with the players from Eugene, including Young, who did everything he could to help his team win the game.

While the Badgers are the better team, covering a big number like this is no easy chore. Before covering four of six, they failed to beat the spread in four straight. Wisconsin will be much more content simply winning this game and moving on to the next round than covering double digits here. Take the Ducks.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Oregon Ducks: No. 101

Wisconsin Badgers: No. 5

March Madness betting trends

The under is 7-1 in the past eight games with Oregon as the underdog.

Oregon is 3-1 ATS in the round of 32 (lone loss was last year versus the Badgers).

The Badgers are 0-3 versus No. 8 seeds since 1996.

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