NCAA Tournament 2015: B/R Experts' Power Ranking for Sweet 16 Teams
Kentucky is obviously the best team remaining in the 2015 NCAA men's basketball tournament, but we've also ranked the other 15 teams in the Sweet 16 to see how they stack up behind the Wildcats.
First things first: This is probably the best Sweet 16 of the past decade.
Cinderella stories are fun, but come on, did anyone really think La Salle or Florida Gulf Coast was going to win it all in 2013?
Whether you think Xavier, UCLA or NC State is the worst remaining team in the field, it's not crazy to think that any of those teams could win another four games against quality teams.
As such, power ranking the 16 teams was quite a chore. It was such a chore that we had to assemble Bleacher Report's college basketball experts. Similar to the format used for the B/R Top 25 rankings throughout the regular season, C.J. Moore, Jason King and I sorted through the remaining teams.
What follows is how we would reseed the field from bottom to top.
16. Xavier Musketeers
1 of 16
How They've Looked
If this is the worst team remaining in the field, then we're headed for one heck of an incredible Sweet 16. The Musketeers have been very efficient on offense, incredibly shooting 76.2 percent from two-point range and 53.8 percent from beyond the arc against Georgia State on Saturday.
Bread and Butter
Xavier's "old man" game is flawless. Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds are both 6'10" and shooting better than 62 percent on two-point attempts, as they have a knack for getting to the rim, finishing through contact and crashing the glass.
Achilles' Heel
The X-Men have had some issues on defense, particularly in the paint. Their first opponent (Ole Miss) had tired legs from facing BYU, and it showed, but Georgia State had little difficulty putting the ball in the hoop against them.
MVP
Stainbrook gets all the attention, but Dee Davis might be the most valuable player on the team. He leads the Musketeers in assists and steals, and though he isn't a consistent three-point shooter by any means, they're much tougher to beat when he's hitting shots.
Championship Blueprint
Get Trevon Bluiett to think he's playing DePaul every night. The standout freshman averaged 20 points per game against the Blue Demons, but he has been invisible thus far, scoring a total of 10 points between the two tournament games.
15. UCLA Bruins
2 of 16
How They've Looked
UCLA has simultaneously looked terrible and remarkable. The Bruins needed some help from the refs to get past SMU, but even before that goaltending call, Bryce Alford was 8-of-10 from three-point range. Then against UAB, Tony Parker had the type of game (28 points, 12 rebounds, three blocks) that reminded us how great one of the most maddeningly inconsistent big men can be.
Bread and Butter
For the Bruins, it's all about the war in the paint. Alford and Isaac Hamilton can both stroke it from deep, but when Parker, Kevon Looney and Thomas Welsh are doing work down low, they can hang with any team in the country.
Achilles' Heel
UCLA doesn't get to the free-throw line all that often, and it doesn't convert once it's there, either, shooting just 67.7 percent as a team. The Bruins are 15-1 when making at least 16 free throws but 7-12 otherwise.
MVP
The Bruins are at their best when Norman Powell is getting buckets. In their four best wins of the regular season (vs. Utah, vs. Oregon, sweep of Stanford), Powell averaged 19.5 points and 5.5 rebounds. And he has been close to those numbers thus far in the tournament (17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds).
Championship Blueprint
Pray Parker keeps playing like he did against UAB. The 28 points were a new career high, so we're not holding our breath that he does it four more times. If he's anything close to that dominant the rest of the way, though, we may well end up with a No. 11 seed in the Final Four for the third time in the past decade.
14. North Carolina State Wolfpack
3 of 16
How They've Looked
Yes, the NC State Wolfpack beat a No. 1 seed, but were you really impressed with how they played in either game? Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey both had double-doubles, and Tim Quarterman nearly had a triple-double for LSU before the Tigers put together one of their patented collapses. And NC State wouldn't have gotten past Villanova if anyone other than Darrun Hilliard had decided to show up for the Wildcats.
Bread and Butter
There isn't really one particular thing NC State does well.
The Wolfpack drained threes and blocked shots when they beat Duke, crashed the offensive glass and forced bad shots against Villanova and had the good fortune of playing at North Carolina and Louisville on nights when those teams couldn't buy a bucket inside the arc. Two-point defense is probably their biggest strength, but they can beat you in any number of ways.
Achilles' Heel
NC State does not take the ball away on defense. Between the first two games, the Wolfpack have just four steals and a total of 21 turnovers. They contest well in the paint, but they also need to contest a lot of shots because of that lack of steals.
MVP
Trevor Lacey is NC State's little engine that could. He leads the team in scoring, but he's also a crucial contributor in rebounds and assists and is one of the few players on the team who can actually force a turnover.
Championship Blueprint
Make sure Beejay Anya plays a bigger role the rest of the way. Anya has the talent to drop 10 points, eight rebounds and six blocks on any given night, but he is almost entirely absent from the final box score more often than not.
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13. Louisville Cardinals
4 of 16
How They've Looked
Louisville has looked better than expected, but we aren't exactly swooning over the Cardinals, either. They played well defensively against both UC Irvine and Northern Iowa. Both were quality three-point shooting teams during the season, but the Cardinals really frustrated them on the perimeter.
Bread and Butter
It all boils down to defense for Louisville. The Cardinals aren't forcing turnovers anywhere near as often as they did with Chris Jones in the lineup, but they're still one of the most stagnant defenses in the country. They have held six of their last eight opponents to 59 points or fewer.
Achilles' Heel
They shot 45.5 percent from three-point range against Northern Iowa, but that is far from their norm. Among active players who have attempted more than 10 three-point shots, Wayne Blackshear is the most accurate shooter on the team at 32.4 percent on the season. There's a reason that holding opponents to less than 60 points is so crucial to their success.
MVP
Montrezl Harrell still gets most of the national love for this team, but Terry Rozier is its heart and soul. Rozier leads the Cardinals in points, assists and steals and is second in rebounds. Harrell has the ability to completely shift the momentum with one or two ridiculous dunks, but Rozier is the one who keeps Louisville moving in the right direction.
Championship Blueprint
Keep getting key contributions out of Quentin Snider. The offense was already inefficient before losing Jones, but it was particularly poor over the final few games of the season without him. But Snider has rapidly evolved into a big piece of the Louisville puzzle with 26 points and nine rebounds through two tournament games.
12. Michigan State Spartans
5 of 16
How They've Looked
The Spartans don't have the name recognition of years past, but seniors Travis Trice and Branden Dawson don't need to be household names to be great. Michigan State played exceptional defense in its first two games, particularly in the first half. Georgia had 22 points at intermission in the round of 64, and Virginia had just 18 on the scoreboard at halftime on Sunday.
Bread and Butter
Michigan State's ball movement is impeccable. The Spartans record an assist on 64.3 percent of made field goals—the highest ratio among remaining tournament teams.
Achilles' Heel
In most seasons, the Spartans are pretty strong from the free-throw line, but that has been a major struggle for them this year. At 63.0 percent as a team, they're worse than all other teams that made the tournament.
MVP
Michigan State has three very good players, but the most valuable one might be Denzel Valentine. Foul trouble kept him from doing much against Virginia, but he's such a stat-sheet stuffer, averaging 14.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. He's also an 82.5 percent free-throw shooter, so he's the go-to guy when protecting a late lead.
Championship Blueprint
Feed Branden Dawson in the paint. Dawson was the key to Michigan State's success last season, but the Spartans got away from him in the Elite Eight loss to Connecticut. This year, he's even more critical, and he has been up to the task thus far, tallying 29 points, 15 rebounds and six blocks in the two wins.
11. Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 16
How They've Looked
For what was one of the most efficient defenses in the country during the regular season, Oklahoma looked pretty unimpressive in allowing both Albany and Dayton to score at least 1.0 point per possession. The Sooners also lost the turnover battle in both games, so they're pretty lucky to still be here.
(We're only six slides into this, and we've already encountered all four teams still standing in the East Region. If there will ever be a legitimate argument for re-seeding the Sweet 16, it will be because of this tournament.)
Bread and Butter
As already mentioned, defense is paramount for the Sooners. They rank 12th in the nation in defensive effective field-goal percentage, so it was pretty surprising to see Dayton shoot better than 50 percent from three-point range against them. It was just the second time this season they allowed an opponent to make more than 10 three-pointers.
Achilles' Heel
Oklahoma is not a good rebounding team. The Sooners are plus-18 on the glass thus far in the tournament, but they had the luxury of facing two undersized teams.
MVP
Buddy Hield hasn't been much of an MVP thus far, but he'll need to be if Oklahoma is to advance any further. He has scored at least 15 points in 25 games this season, including each of his last seven, but whether he's doing so efficiently or just by being a volume shooter is the big key.
Championship Blueprint
Find a way to keep Frank Booker hot. The backup shooting guard was terribly inconsistent for most of the season, but he is shooting 38.5 percent from three-point range over his last 11 games, including hitting 6-of-12 thus far in the tournament. Eventually Hield will start making shots, and Oklahoma could be very tough to stop if both he and Booker are feeling it.
10. West Virginia Mountaineers
7 of 16
How They've Looked
We certainly wouldn't say West Virginia has looked bad, but we're also not going to lie to you and say the Mountaineers have looked beautiful, either. They've been exactly what we've known them to be all season long: a team that almost always shoots worse than its opponent, yet almost always wins by being twice as aggressive.
Case in point, West Virginia shot 40 percent from the field against Maryland while the Terrapins shot 47.7 percent, but the Mountaineers won by double digits, thanks to 15 steals and 14 offensive rebounds. Just another day at the office for Bob Huggins' squad.
Bread and Butter
It's all about the turnovers. The Mountaineers' steal totals tapered off a bit toward the end of the season as they were facing opponents who had already seen them once or twice before, but West Virginia forced an average of 21.8 turnovers per game through the end of January, according to Sports-Reference.com.
Achilles' Heel
West Virginia does not shoot well, and when it isn't forcing turnovers, it struggles to play half-court defense. The Mountaineers have allowed an opponent to shoot at least 46.4 percent from the field 19 times—a number they have only reached on offense seven times.
MVP
This year, KenPom.com added a feature in each box score whereby an MVP is appointed in each game. Over the course of the season, eight different Mountaineers were awarded at least one MVP, and four got the honor at least four times.
But Juwan Staten takes the cake with seven of them. Their system is very much a team one, but Staten is also clearly the driving force. He leads the team in both points and assists, averaging 14.2 and 4.8, respectively.
Championship Blueprint
West Virginia may have already found the blueprint. Eventually, the Mountaineers are going to run into a point guard they can't rattle, and they might get bounced from the tournament by a 20-point margin. Until that day comes, though, they're going to give a 110 percent effort every game for a coach who deserved more chatter in the National Coach of the Year discussion.
9. Wichita State Shockers
8 of 16
How They've Looked
Incredibly, Wichita State looked better against Kansas than it did against Indiana. The Shockers were clearly and strongly motivated to beat the Jayhawks. Now, let's see if they can maintain that level of intensity.
Bread and Butter
It's hard to believe given their lack of height, but the Shockers do an excellent job defending the paint. They rank ninth in the nation in two-point field-goal defense at 42.1 percent and have held their two opponents to 37.0 percent thus far in the tournament.
Achilles' Heel
For as well as they defend the paint, the Shockers aren't always that great at protecting the perimeter. Nine opponents have shot better than 40.0 percent from three-point range against them, including all four of their losses and their overtime win over Hawaii. They could have a problem against Notre Dame.
MVP
Ron Baker will probably have the better NBA career, but Fred VanVleet is the straw that stirs Wichita State's drink. Through two games, he has 44 points, 10 assists, eight rebounds and six steals.
Championship Blueprint
Get Baker to start making shots. He was one of the better three-point shooters in the country for most of the season, but that hasn't carried over into the month of March. He is just 5-of-23 from downtown in his last four games and just 2-of-10 thus far in the Big Dance.
8. Utah Utes
9 of 16
How They've Looked
Led by Jakob Poeltl shooting a scary efficient 12-of-13 from the field, the Utah Utes have looked pretty formidable thus far. They really kept Stephen F. Austin from doing anything on offense in the round of 64 before making a mockery of Georgetown's defense in the round of 32.
Bread and Butter
Utah was a woeful three-point shooting team in 2013-14, but it was one of the best long-range teams in the country this year, thanks to the much-improved stroke of Jordan Loveridge and Delon Wright and the play of freshman Brekkott Chapman. As a team, the Utes shot 57.1 percent from beyond the arc against Georgetown on Saturday.
Achilles' Heel
Where West Virginia grabs a ton of offensive rebounds and forces plenty of turnovers, Utah doesn't do a whole lot of either of those things. The Utes are typically pretty efficient on offense, but second-chance points and points off turnovers aren't exactly categories they're filling up on a nightly basis, so it's sometimes tough for them to put together prolonged scoring runs.
MVP
Poeltl made this a tougher call than we could have possibly imagined five months ago, but Wright is still the captain of this ship. He hasn't been great in the tournament, but at a moment's notice he could explode for something to the tune of 18 points, nine rebounds, seven assists, four steals and two blocks.
Championship Blueprint
Two-point defense was arguably Utah's biggest strength during the season, but that hasn't been the case in the tournament. Stephen F. Austin and Georgetown shot a combined 49.1 percent from inside the arc against the Utes, and they've got one heck of an efficient two-point offense coming their way in the form of Duke. To reach the Elite Eight—let alone a national championship—they'll need to really pony up in the paint.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10 of 16
How They've Looked
Notre Dame was incredible in the ACC tournament, but it hasn't been nearly as great in the NCAA tournament. Once the most efficient offenses in the country by a sizable margin, the Fighting Irish scored just 1.06 points per possession against Butler (a stout defense) and Northeastern (a perfectly average defense). Both wins came down to the wire, and they even needed overtime to get past Butler.
Bread and Butter
The Jerian Grant and Zach Auguste pick-and-roll offense is a thing of beauty. And when they're getting solid contributions from their four teammates who shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc (Pat Connaughton, Steve Vasturia, Demetrius Jackson and V.J. Beachem), this offense is impossible to stop.
Achilles' Heel
For as gifted as they are on offense, the Fighting Irish could use some help on defense. They also aren't a good rebounding team, as exhibited by their minus-16 margin against Northeastern—a fairly average rebounding team in its own right.
MVP
Grant is one of the most talented and versatile players in the country. During the regular season, he led the ACC in assists and ranked fifth in scoring. His ability to find open teammates and either get to the rim or the free-throw line is second-to-none.
Championship Blueprint
In a nutshell, the offense needs to be good enough to make up for the defense. The Fighting Irish have the worst adjusted defensive efficiency among remaining tournament teams, but that hasn't stopped them from getting to 31 wins this season. As long as the offense is humming, Notre Dame can beat anyone.
6. North Carolina Tar Heels
11 of 16
How They've Looked
The North Carolina Tar Heels have committed 33 turnovers and allowed 32 offensive rebounds, so the mere fact that they're still alive should tell you just how good they have looked when they haven't been making careless mistakes. Justin Jackson and J.P. Tokoto are all over the place, and Marcus Paige is playing like a stud, tallying 34 points, seven assists, six rebounds and six steals through two games.
Bread and Butter
The defensive rebounding is nothing to brag about, but North Carolina crashes the offensive glass about as well as any team in the country. Thus far in the tournament, the Tar Heels have gotten back 46.8 percent of their own misses, good for more than a few second-chance points.
Achilles' Heel
Turnovers weren't a huge problem for most of the season, but the Tar Heels have committed an average of 16.0 turnovers over their last four games. It hasn't been one or two players in particular, either. It's just a generic disdain for ball control by the entire roster.
MVP
Paige is the key to everything North Carolina does, but Jackson has been no slouch as of late, either, averaging 13.3 points over his last 11 games. They're the type of numbers we were expecting all year long from the McDonald's All-American, but better late than never.
Championship Blueprint
Recognizing that North Carolina would likely need to go through Wisconsin, Arizona, Kentucky and Duke to win a national championship, the blueprint here is to embrace the role of the underdog. This is one of the five most talented rosters in the country, yet it probably won't be expected to win another game. Have fun, play loose and score like crazy.
5. Gonzaga Bulldogs
12 of 16
How They've Looked
Per usual this season, Gonzaga's defense has been shoddy, but its offense has been phenomenal. The Zags are averaging 1.26 points per possession while making 62.5 percent of their two-point field-goal attempts.
Bread and Butter
Gonzaga leads the nation in effective field-goal percentage, shooting 41.0 percent from three-point range and 57.4 percent from inside the arc. Through five games in March, the Bulldogs are averaging 84.8 points per game—simply beating their opponents into submission with beautiful scoring.
Achilles' Heel
No matter what shortcomings Gonzaga has on the court—free-throw shooting, forcing turnovers and defense in general among them—the biggest hurdle for this team is its lack of success in recent tournaments. Mark Few has been one of the winningest regular-season coaches of all time, but in 15 previous trips to the NCAA tournament, he has never led a team to the Elite Eight.
MVP
Gonzaga has two MVPs: Kyle Witljer and Kevin Pangos. Forced to choose one, however, we're going with Wiltjer, because he is averaging 25.0 points per 40 minutes, while no other teammate is even at 18.0. And good luck finding another player in this tournament shooting 47.9 percent from three-point range on the season—let alone one that stands 6'10".
Championship Blueprint
The big key for Gonzaga is somehow avoiding the ice-cold shooting nights that doomed Villanova and Virginia to losses in the round of 32. This team can outscore anyone, but the Zags have a considerably worse defense than the Cavaliers or the Wildcats. Things could get ugly in a hurry if they're suddenly unable to make shots against a team such as UCLA or Duke.
4. Arizona Wildcats
13 of 16
How They've Looked
The Arizona Wildcats have been downright unflappable. Against Texas Southern, they got to the rim at will on repeat. Ohio State put up much more of a defensive struggle, but Arizona recorded more steals on defense than turnovers on offense and also grabbed 48.6 percent of possible offensive rebounds.
Bread and Butter
Arizona owns the paint. Led by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson, the Wildcats dominate on the glass and rank in the top 20 nationally in two-point field-goal percentage on both offense and defense. If they run into Kentucky in the Final Four, it will be one heck of a war inside the arc.
Achilles' Heel
They're shooting 86.3 percent from the free-throw line thus far in the tournament, but the charity stripe was their biggest foe during the regular season. In close losses to UNLV, Oregon State and Arizona State, Arizona missed 26 combined free throws.
MVP
Johnson is the most important piece to Arizona's puzzle. The freshman leads the team in scoring and ranks second in rebounds and assists and third in steals. And on nights when he's feeling it from three-point range, he might as well be the most unguardable player in the entire country.
Championship Blueprint
Arizona just needs to keep up the solid work. In all three of their losses, the Wildcats shot worse from two-point range than their opponents, which should never happen with this roster. As long as they continue to own the paint, they can win it all.
3. Duke Blue Devils
14 of 16
How They've Looked
Duke hasn't even broken a sweat yet in the tournament, beating Robert Morris and San Diego State by an average margin of 24.0 points. The Blue Devils have been tenacious on defense and unstoppable on offense. Keep playing like they did in Charlotte, and they'll win a fifth national championship.
Bread and Butter
Duke's bread and butter depends on what the defense is giving them. If opponents are single-covering Jahlil Okafor, the Blue Devils feed the big man until he can't eat anymore. Double-team him and they'll kill you from three-point range. And if Justise Winslow is slashing and scoring like he did against San Diego State, game over.
Achilles' Heel
They still struggle with imposing lead guards. Marcquise Reed and Rodney Pryor combined for 45 points for Robert Morris, so dealing with Delon Wright and Brandon Taylor in the Sweet 16 could be a problem—but only if Utah is able to figure out how to keep Duke from scoring 70 points.
MVP
Take your pick, really. Winslow has been a great X-factor, Okafor has been a monster in the paint and Tyus Jones has done a wonderful job of steering this ship. But Quinn Cook really might be the MVP of this team. The senior leader has been the defensive stalwart since Rasheed Sulaimon's dismissal, and he has mastered the art of draining back-breaking three-pointers with a metric ton of swagger.
Championship Blueprint
Don't go cold. That's Duke's blueprint every single season. The Blue Devils have been living and dying by the three for decades, and they could get bounced if those shots aren't falling. But as long as they're hitting at least 35 percent of them, they'll be extremely difficult to beat.
2. Wisconsin Badgers
15 of 16
How They've Looked
The Wisconsin Badgers struggled a bit on defense against Coastal Carolina and Oregon, but the frontcourt has been so unstoppable on offense that it hasn't mattered. Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes scored 62 points against the Chanticleers and another 47 against the Ducks.
Bread and Butter
This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who has followed this team over the past decade-plus, but Wisconsin plays efficient, turnover-free basketball as well as any team in the country. The Badgers rarely take bad shots and never force bad passes, resulting in the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation by a significant margin.
Achilles' Heel
Three-point defense has been a serious issue for the Badgers this season. Between their first two tournament games, opponents have shot 48.4 percent from downtown. At 36.8 percent for the season, they have the worst opposing three-point percentage among remaining tournament teams.
MVP
If you're expecting anyone other than Kaminsky in this spot, you're crazy. The potential Wooden Award winner has been excellent all season long and has scored at least 16 points in 11 of his last 12 games.
Championship Blueprint
Wisconsin basketball basically is a championship blueprint. It would be great if they could do a better job of contesting three-pointers, but everything else the Badgers do is exactly what we're asking other teams to start doing. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll win it all, but they're probably the best candidate after Kentucky.
1. Kentucky Wildcats
16 of 16
How They've Looked
The Wildcats got a challenge from Cincinnati, but at no point has Kentucky looked like it was in any danger of blowing the quest for 40-0. The offense hasn't been great, but—per usual—the defense has been impenetrable.
Bread and Butter
Kentucky simply breaks your will to live with sheer athleticism in the form of offensive rebounds, blocks and steals. The Wildcats extend offensive possessions and end defensive possessions about as often and emphatically as any team in the country. Playing them is like pushing a boulder up a mountain.
Achilles' Heel
Defensive rebounding has occasionally been a problem for Kentucky, and it certainly was in the round of 32, as Cincinnati grabbed 21 offensive rebounds.
MVP
Karl-Anthony Towns is the main man for Kentucky. That wasn't always the case, but he has improved considerably over the course of the season to fulfill expectations of battling Jahlil Okafor for the No. 1 overall draft pick in June. Towns has been outstanding over the past two months, including 21 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks in the round of 64 against Hampton.
Championship Blueprint
As long as they stay focused on the task at hand, the Wildcats will win it all. We've been saying for months that the only team that can beat Kentucky is Kentucky. Take each game one step at a time and don't overlook anyone and we'll have our first undefeated champion in nearly four decades.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com, unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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