Arkansas Razorbacks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting, March Madness Analysis

No. 4 seeds are 7-1 both straight-up and against the spread in their last eight NCAA tournament encounters with No. 5 seeds. That trend favors fourth-seeded North Carolina for its matchup with fifth-seeded Arkansas Saturday night down in Jacksonville, Florida.

Opening spread

The Tar Heels opened as 4.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Arkansas to cover the spread

The Razorbacks made it to Saturday by surviving an upset bid from Wofford Thursday, gutting out a 56-53 victory. Arkansas had its hands full with the pesky Terriers but made a couple of big plays down the stretch and played just enough defense to hang on. For the day, the Hogs shot 46 percent from the floor and held Wofford to just 32 percent shooting.

Arkansas is 11-3 over its last 14 games, and two of those losses came against top-ranked Kentucky. The Razorbacks finished in second place in an SEC this season that sent five teams to the Big Dance and made it to the championship game of the SEC tournament.

If Arkansas can take care of the ball Saturday, create a few North Carolina turnovers (the Heels committed 18 Thursday), get a few easy baskets and hold its own on the boards, it could pull off the upset here.

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread

The Tar Heels reached Saturday's round of 32 by surviving an upset bid from Harvard Thursday, scoring the last bucket of the game with 23 seconds to go for the winning points in a 67-65 victory.

North Carolina led by 16 early in the second half, fell behind by a basket with just over a minute to go, then scored the last four points to avoid disaster. The Heels shot 55 percent from the floor and held the Crimson to just 38 percent shooting.

North Carolina finished in fifth place in an ACC this season that sent six teams to the Big Dance, and with seven nonconference bouts against teams that made the NCAA tournament the Heels have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. North Carolina is shooting 48 percent from the floor while holding opponents to just less than 40 percent field-goal shooting.

If the Heels can avoid the turnovers, they should take this contest.

Smart betting pick

North Carolina won Thursday but lost ATS, and it's now 4-9 ATS over its last 13 NCAA tournament games. The Tar Heels also have a penchant for turning the ball over, and that's not a good trait heading into a game against Arkansas. The smart money in this spot resides with the Hogs and the points.

Power rankings, per Odds Shark power ranks

Arkansas Razorbacks: No. 152

North Carolina Tar Heels: No. 26

March Madness betting trends

North Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 games overall.

No. 4 seeds are 7-1 SU and ATS in their past eight games against No. 5 seeds.

Arkansas is 0-3 in the round of 32 since advancing in 1996.

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