Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Kentucky Wildcats Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats moved within five wins of a perfect season and a ninth national championship with a 79-56 round-of-64 win over the 16th-seeded Hampton Pirates. The Wildcats will look to take a step closer to cutting down the nets when they take on the eighth-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats in the round of 32 on Saturday.

Even though the Wildcats did not cover the spread against Hampton as massive 35-point favorites Thursday, they led by as many as 35 in the second half before breezing to an easy victory. The Bearcats also failed to cover as two-point favorites against the ninth-seeded Purdue Boilermakers in a 66-65 overtime win, but they rallied back from a seven-point deficit in the final minute to force the extra session.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as 18.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Cincinnati to cover the spread?

Despite not covering the spread in the win over Purdue, Cincinnati showed grit and determination in rallying back to tie the game at the end of regulation. Of course, the Bearcats will be taking a big step up in competition here against Kentucky, but they have not lost by more than 16 points in 2015 and were blown out by that margin only twice earlier in the season.

They shot just 41 percent from the field against the Boilermakers but held their opponents to 36 percent—including 15 percent (4-of-26) from three-point range. Turning in that type of defensive effort again could lead to a possible upset of the Wildcats, which will also be facing a tougher opponent than they did in the previous round.

Why pick Kentucky to cover the spread?

Kentucky played as expected in the round of 64 and was still happy to advance with a big win, as many of the team’s players were playing in their first Big Dance. The Wildcats had gone 8-1-1 against the number in their previous 10 games and will have a more manageable spread to cover in this spot against Cincinnati.

In their last 11 games, they have won by an average of more than 20 points and certainly have the ability to switch gears in a hurry with arguably the best bench in the country. Kentucky had nine players log 12 minutes or more and was able to overcome off-shooting nights from Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker, who combined to make only 1-of-11 shots from the field against the Pirates.

It is scary to think how good the Wildcats could be when hitting on all cylinders offensively, and doing so against Cincy would result in a 20-point rout.

Smart betting pick

Kentucky’s opponents will obviously become more difficult from here on out, and the Bearcats will provide a good challenge defensively. However, the Bearcats are offensively challenged and will have a difficult time keeping up with the Wildcats on the scoreboard if and when Kentucky gets rolling in this one. Cincinnati has topped 66 points just once in its last five games and only twice in its past nine.

Meanwhile, Kentucky has totaled more than 70 points in nine of its previous 12 games. The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four when totaling more than 80, and bettors can expect them to push the pace, knowing the Bearcats struggle to score. Look for Kentucky to win by more than 20 with the over also having a shot to cash.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Cincinnati Bearcats: No. 80

Kentucky Wildcats: No. 2

March Madness betting trends

No. 1 seeds are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games against No. 8 seeds.

Cincinnati is just 2-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2008.

Cincinnati is just 2-8 ATS in the round of 32 since 1997.

Kentucky is 11-5 ATS in the round of 32 since 1996.

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