NCAA Bracket 2015: Updated Schedule and Predictions After Thursday's 2nd Round

Bracket busted yet?

The NCAA tournament promises madness, and it delivered during Thursday's wild second-round slate. No. 14 UAB immediately shattered brackets by upsetting No. 3 seed and Big 12 champion Iowa State.

Shortly after, another No. 3 seed fell. Baylor watched a 12-point lead vanish in the final minutes against Georgia State, sending another prominent Big 12 participant packing.

According to NCAA March Madness' official Twitter page, those two upsets alone drove nearly every bracket into disarray:

Don't exhale just yet. Another 16 matchups are waiting on Friday. Simple probability suggests more upsets are bound to wreak havoc on pools across the nation.

Let's catch up on Thursday's hectic results and look ahead to the other half of second-round action set for Friday.

Thursday's Results

Region	Winner	Score	Loser
Midwest	No. 3 Notre Dame	69-65	No. 14 Northeastern
Midwest	No. 6 Butler	56-48	No. 11 Texas
Midwest	No. 1 Kentucky	79-56	No. 16 Hampton
Midwest	No. 8 Cincinnati	66-65 (OT)	No. 9 Purdue
West	No. 14 Georgia State	57-56	No. 3 Baylor
West	No. 2 Arizona	93-72	No. 15 Texas Southern
West	No. 10 Ohio State	75-72 (OT)	No. 7 VCU
West	No. 6 Xavier	76-57	No. 11 Ole Miss
West	No. 4 North Carolina	67-65	No. 13 Harvard
West	No. 5 Arkansas	56-53	No. 12 Wofford
East	No. 1 Villanova	93-52	No. 16 Lafayette
East	No. 8 NC State	66-65	No. 9 LSU
South	No. 14 UAB	60-59	No. 3 Iowa State
South	No. 11 UCLA	60-59	No. 6 SMU
South	No. 5 Utah	57-50	No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
South	No. 3 Georgetown	84-74	No. 14 Eastern Washington

Friday's Schedule

Time (ET)	Matchup	TV	Prediction
12:15 p.m.	No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 New Mexico State	CBS	Kansas
12:40 p.m.	No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Georgia	truTV	Michigan State
1:40 p.m.	No. 5 Northern Iowa vs. No. 12 Wyoming	TBS	Northern Iowa
2:10 p.m.	No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 12 Buffalo	TNT	Buffalo
2:45 p.m.	No. 7 Wichita State vs. No. 10 Indiana	CBS	Wichita State
3:10 p.m.	No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 15 Belmont	truTV	Virginia
4:10 p.m.	No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 13 UC Irvine	TBS	Louisville
4:40 p.m.	No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Valparaiso	TNT	Maryland
6:50 p.m.	No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State	TBS	Oklahoma State
7:10 p.m.	No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Robert Morris	CBS	Duke
7:20 p.m.	No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Davidson	TNT	Davidson
7:27 p.m.	No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Albany	truTV	Oklahoma
9:20 p.m.	No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 16 Coastal Carolina	TBS	Wisconsin
9:40 p.m.	No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 St. John's	CBS	San Diego State
9:50 p.m.	No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 North Dakota State	TNT	Gonzaga
9:57 p.m.	No. 6 Providence vs. No. 11 Dayton	truTV	Providence

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Predicting Friday's Top Matchups

No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 7 Michigan State

Never count out Michigan State in March. A tournament mainstay under Tom Izzo, the Spartans are underseeded at No. 7 given their No. 17 overall team efficiency rating on KenPom.com. 

Despite suffering two tough losses to top-seeded Wisconsin, Michigan State could once again peak at the perfect time. Georgia, however, can't be taken lightly with KenPom.com's No. 23-rated adjusted defense.

Although Travis Trice leads the team with 14.8 points per game, he does so shooting an inefficient 39.1 percent from the floor. Yet the senior averaged 18.9 points with a 41.7 field-goal percentage over his final nine games.

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Yahoo Sports' Brad Evans labeled Trice's improved play pivotal for a deep Michigan State run:

Izzo, who benched his top scorer last month, credited the recent switch to shooting guard for Trice's revival. Per The State News' Omari Sankofa II:

“I thought we wore Trice right down to nothing,” Izzo said. “And taking him off the point helped because he didn’t have to guard the guy and didn’t have to bring the ball up. Gave him a chance to give him a little more rest, and I think it gave him a chance to come off some screens and be a better shooter.”

Trice must either carry over his hot hand or let junior Denzel Valentine take control of the offense. Both clubs have 11 losses on their ledger, but the Spartans sport a plus-8.5 point differential to the Bulldogs' plus-4.1 margin.

Don't rule out another Sweet 16 visit for Izzo and Co.

Prediction: Michigan State 68, Georgia 65

No. 10 Davidson vs. No. 7 Iowa

Another No. 7 vs. No. 10 game generates interest, but the lower seed enters this matchup with more buzz.

On the strength of a prolific and fast-paced offense, as observed by ESPN Stats & Info, Davidson holds the upper hand in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) over Iowa:

Davidson has also converted more three-pointers (337) than any of the tournament's 68 participants. Jon Miller of HawkeyeNation.com noted its heavy reliance on deep balls:

Iowa stifles opponents to a 32.4 three-point percentage, but it hasn't faced the lethal duo of Jack Gibbs and Tyler Kalinoski. The Wildcats are also committed to finding open looks, ranking third with 17.2 assists per game.

It's a risky style, but an underdog should embrace such a high-risk, high-reward philosophy during a single-elimination showdown. The whole point of this game is to score more points than the other team. Maximizing possessions to attempt high-value shots often accomplishes that goal. 

Prediction: Davidson 79, Iowa 74

No. 11 Dayton vs. No. 6 Providence

On Wednesday night, Dayton earned a ticket to the round of 64 by narrowly outlasting Boise State. The 56-55 victory marked an historic occasion for the Flyers, as pointed out by ESPN Stats & Info:

They also beat the Broncos inside their home arena, finishing the year undefeated in Dayton. ESPN's Mike Tirico wondered why the selection committee didn't circumvent the competitive advantage, which especially matters in a game decided by one point and a controversial no-call:

Nevertheless, the Flyers will keep dancing against No. 6 Providence. FiveThirtyEight projects this game as a toss-up, giving the Friars a 51 percent probability of winning. BPI also lists them as even adversaries, with Dayton two spots and 0.3 points ahead of Providence. 

Although they won't play in UD Arena, Dayton still benefits geographically with Columbus, Ohio hosting its second-round bout. Yet Providence boasts an explosive duo in Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.

Player	PPG	FG %	RPG	APG	SPG
Kris Dunn	15.8	48.0	5.6	7.6	2.8
LaDontae Henton	19.7	45.5	6.4	0.9	1.4

Boise State came close to overcoming a tournament road game, and Providence is more talented on both ends. Three of its last losses came against Villanova, with Kentucky also inflicting an early defeat, so its 22-11 record is misleading.

After winning by a hair, Dayton loses by one this time.

Prediction: Providence 66, Dayton 64