NCAA Tournament 2015: Ranking the Most Likely Upsets in the Round of 64

Filling out a bracket is no fun without picking some upsets.

You don't want to go overboard, but it's good to sprinkle some in. Knowing who the Cinderellas with a realistic shot are is important.

First, let's define an upset. You won't find any No. 9 or No. 10 seeds here. An upset must include at least a five-seed difference, so 6-11 games are in play and those are good matchups to target this year. Some of these "upsets" are only that according to seed, as at least one of the lower-seeded teams could end up favorites in Vegas. 

Remember, I don't suggest that you pick all eight of these underdogs to win. But I've picked out games where either the favorite is over-seeded or the underdog is under-seeded, or matchups where the lower seed has some kind of obvious advantage. The picks are listed from lower-seeded teams with the potential to pull off the upset to lower seeds I would be willing to wager on. 

Let's get to the picks.

8. Stephen F. Austin over Utah

South Region: Stephen F. Austin (12) vs. Utah (5)

There's a good chance I would have picked Stephen F. Austin to win at least one game in the NCAA tournament had the opponent not been Utah. The Utes are the best fifth seed, and if not for a late-season slump, they would have been a third seed with a sliver of a chance to get on the No. 2 line.

So the fact that this game is on this upsets list is not an indictment of the Utes, but rather an appreciation of how good the Lumberjacks are.

Stephen F. Austin knocked off VCU in last season's tournament and is by far the best 12th seed. SFA nearly beat Northern Iowa this year, losing by two in overtime, and won at Memphis. The Lumberjacks also won at Oklahoma on the road last year.

Brad Underwood, a former Kansas State assistant, has a great shooting team and two players, Thomas Walkup and Jacob Parker, who could play at the high-major level.

I like Utah to win, but this is a brutal draw for Larry Krystkowiak's team.

7. UC Irvine over Louisville

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

East Region: UC Irvine (13) vs. Louisville (4) 

As I noted in my picks for B/R, it's not wise to pick against Louisville coach Rick Pitino in the opening round of the tournament. He's only lost twice in the round of 64 in his long career.

But if there was ever a Louisville team to get bounced early, this would be the one. The Cardinals have labored to score all season, and it's only gotten worse without point guard Chris Jones, who was kicked off the team three weeks ago. In six games without Jones, Louisville has scored a measly 0.97 points per possession, per kenpom.com.

The key for the Cards right now is to get the ball in the paint to Montrezl Harrell, but defending the interior is UC Irvine's forte. The Anteaters hold opponents to 41.4 percent shooting inside the arc.

To pull off the upset, the Anteaters will have to take care of the ball so the Cards can't get easy buckets off live-ball turnovers. They also must knock down shots. Irvine shoots 39.0 percent from distance, so Louisville could be in for a tough matchup.

6. Wyoming over Northern Iowa

East Region: Wyoming (12) vs. Northern Iowa (5)

Northern Iowa likes to play a slow-down, half-court game and work through star power forward Seth Tuttle. Wyoming also likes to play slow and also likes to play through its star power forward, Larry Nance Jr. This won't be a battle of contrasting styles. 

Nance has the ability to guard Tuttle, and that will be a key. If he can check the UNI star one-on-one without bringing help, that will be a big plus because when Tuttle draws help, he's excellent at finding open shooters around the perimeter. 

If Nance and Tuttle ends up a wash, Nance has the better sidekick in guard Josh Adams, who averages 13.1 points per game. The Panthers don't have anyone outside of Tuttle averaging double figures. 

Talent-wise, Wyoming is much closer to UNI than the seeding would suggest. I still like the Panthers to win because they make it hard to score in the paint with their pack-line defense, and the Cowboys are not a good three-point shooting team. 

But if you want to pull the trigger on a second No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset, this is a good game to pick.

5. Eastern Washington over Georgetown

Fred Beckham/Associated Press

South Region: Eastern Washington (13) vs. Georgetown (4)

Take a look at the last four teams to beat Georgetown in the NCAA tournament:

• 2010: No. 14 Ohio (round of 64)
• 2011: No. 11 VCU (round of 64)
• 2012: No. 11 North Carolina State (round of 32)
• 2013: No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast (round of 64)

Not only have the Hoyas been extremely upset-prone in the past, they're a line or two over-seeded this year.

Eastern Washington is a boom-or-bust team because the Eagles aren't great defensively and they shoot a ton of threes. They have been pretty consistent shooting the ball, knocking down a solid 40.3 percent of their treys, and Georgetown hasn't been great defending the three-point line—opponents shoot 35.9 percent from deep.

It also helps to have a big-time star during March, and the Eagles have that in Tyler Harvey, who is the nation's leading scorer at 22.9 points per game.

The Hoyas will try to take advantage of their size advantage by pounding the ball into giant Joshua Smith, but if they're trading twos for threes, it may not matter.

4. Dayton over Providence

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

East Region: Dayton (11) vs. Providence (6)

Dayton has the luxury of playing at home to start the tournament—the play-in game is in Dayton—and then gets to play in the round of 64 just down the road in Columbus.

Archie Miller proved himself an excellent in-tournament coach last season by taking his team to the Elite Eight as a No. 11 seed. Miller has again proved his chops as a coach this year by getting back to the tournament with a rotation that doesn't have a single player over 6'6".

Providence is not exactly the team to take advantage of such a small front line. The Friars get most of their scoring from two perimeter players—LaDontae Henton and Kris Dunn. Providence is a good offensive rebounding team, but, surprisingly, Dayton was the best defensive rebounding squad in the Atlantic 10.

I picked Providence to win this game, but the No. 6 vs. No. 11 games—minus SMU-UCLA—are all closer matchups than the seeding would suggest, and you wouldn't be crazy to go with Dayton in this game. Providence should be rooting for Boise State, who would have far fewer fans travel to Columbus and would be an easier draw. If Boise State wins, pick Providence. But if not, I like Dayton's chances.

3. Buffalo over West Virginia

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Midwest Region: Buffalo (12) vs. West Virginia (5)

West Virginia's goal is to speed up its opponent and force a ton of turnovers. That shouldn't bother Buffalo at all.

The Bulls like to play fast—they rank 20th in adjusted tempo, per kenpom.com—and they went 15-2 this season in games that featured 70 or more possessions. They're also not turnover-prone, giving away the ball on only 16.4 percent of their possessions, which ranks 35th nationally, per kenpom.com. The one caveat there is Buffalo has never seen pressure like the kind West Virginia applies.

One other reason to like Buffalo is that star forward Justin Moss is excellent at drawing fouls—he draws 7.0 fouls per 40 minutes, according to kenpom.com—and West Virginia is one of the most-foul prone teams in the country. Moss is also a solid 73.5 percent at the line.

The Mountaineers are not exactly whole right now either. Starting guard Juwan Staten, the team's leading scorer, and Gary Browne have both been sidelined the last two weeks. The team went 1-3 without Staten. Both are expected to return this week, but returning from injury in the NCAA tournament is a tough spot. 

If the Mountaineers were operating at 100 percent, I would like their chances. But since there's no guarantee Staten will be himself and Buffalo is comfortable playing an uptempo game, this is a prime upset pick.

2. Texas over Butler

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Midwest Region: Texas (11) vs. Butler (6)

If you believe in KenPom.com's ratings, then Texas should actually be the favorite in this game. The Longhorns (20th) rank three spots ahead of the Bulldogs (23rd) according to Ken Pomeroy's Pythagorean rating, and his projections have the Horns winning by a point.

The one matchup that could give Texas some trouble is Butler point forward Roosevelt Jones against UT's Jonathan Holmes. Holmes, playing out of position at the 3, is not a great perimeter defender, and Jones is a slippery driver who thrives at getting in the paint. But what the Longhorns do have is a ton of length that makes it really hard to operate when you get near the rim.

Texas also has the best slashing point guard in the country in Isaiah Taylor. Now, I'm not saying Taylor is the best point guard, but no one is harder to stay in front of than the lightning-quick Longhorn. Butler point guard Alex Barlow will have a tough time matching up with him.

The Longhorns underachieved all year, but the team we saw in the Big 12 tournament was beginning to resemble what everyone expected. It was one dumb Javan Felix shot away from either knocking off eventual champion Iowa State in regulation or having a shot in overtime. Texas could be playing for coach Rick Barnes' job as well.

Motivation plus superior talent favors Texas.

1. Brigham Young over Xavier

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West Region: Brigham Young (11) vs. Xavier (6)

Xavier was extremely fortunate to get a No. 6 seed after going 9-9 in the Big East, losing neutral-court games to UTEP and Long Beach State and falling at Auburn.

Are we sure the Musketeers aren't the No. 11 seed here?

BYU must first get past Ole Miss in the play-in game. Both of those teams have really good offenses and poor defenses and could present similar challenges to Xavier. But BYU is clearly the better offensive team of the two and a more difficult matchup for Xavier. (If Ole Miss wins, this game becomes a coin flip.)

It's hard to find an opponent for Xavier in the Big East comparable to BYU. The Cougars play fast and are always in attack mode. No one in the Big East plays nearly as fast, but against the two most uptempo teams in the league—St. John's and DePaul—Xavier went 0-3. So that's one reason to like BYU. 

The main reason I like the Cougars here is their talent. They have a lot more than a typical No. 11 seed. Tyler Haws is one of the best scorers in college basketball—he's the school's all-time leading scorer—and he's not even BYU's best player. That would be Kyle Collinsworth, a big guard with excellent vision and feel who has an NCAA-record six triple-doubles this season.

The Cougars are so unusual in their style and their ability to not only attack the paint off the bounce but also fill it up from the perimeter. The Musketeers don't have an elite defense, and their best wins (Butler and Georgetown three times) are against slow, prodding teams. This is only an upset by seeding.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.