NCAA Bracket 2015: Highlighting Top Picks to Make an Early Exit from Tournament

Pressure can overwhelm even the greatest of teams.

Perhaps the notion doesn't apply to this year's edition of Kentucky, which figures to stomp all over the bracket Godzilla-in-Manhattan style, but it does for the other 67 teams in the running.

"Madness" is a natural element of a single-elimination tournament, a tournament that just so happens to be the best of its kind and a month-long holiday folks go as far as to sneak-watch at their cubicles despite the boss making the paces around the office.

In other words, upsets via pressure and strong opposition are bound to happen.

Key Tournament Information

Dates: March 17–April 6

Channels: CBS, TBS, TNT and truTV

Live Stream: March Madness Live

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Predicting Early Exits

No. 5 Utah

Say hello to what is sure to be one of the hottest upset picks around.

There's a good reason.

Experience matters, folks. Utah is a scary team as it heads into an encounter with Stephen F. Austin. The Utes may come in 20th in ESPN's RPI rankings, but along with it is a 3-7 mark against the RPI Top 50 and little to no Big Dance experience.

This is a problem, as USA Today's Nicole Auerbach illustrates:

Stephen F. Austin doesn't share the issue. A 35th spot in RPI and an 0-3 tally against the RPI Top 50 stings, but what the Lumberjacks lack in the pretty-resume department they make up for with experience and team-centric basketball.

While Utah leans on leading scorer and senior Delon Wright (14.9 points per game), Stephen F. Austin puts teams away with savvy ball movement, placing the team No. 1 in the nation with 17.8 assists per game.

As a result, this places them ninth at 79.5 points per game and fifth in field goal percentage at 49.1. Five players average at least 8.4 points per game, right up to Thomas Walkup's 15.7.

Utah lacks experience on the big stage and has not put together a winning streak since Feb. 19th. The Utes are in trouble against an experienced team capable of leaning on many different players to carry it.

Prediction: Stephen F. Austin 78, Utah 74

No. 5 Northern Iowa

Some may still not be familiar with Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference, which may be a good thing—the Panthers might not last long.

Sure, the Panthers rank 15th in RPI with an 8-2 mark against the RPI Top 100. Their opponent, the Wyoming Cowboys, rank 73rd and are 5-4 in the same regard.

Throw the resumes out and look at two key factors—momentum and matchups.

Northern Iowa is on a roll, sure, but it's nothing compared to the epic run put on by Larry Shyatt's Cowboys. Winners of three straight, the Cowboys upset No. 25 Boise State in overtime and then took down San Diego State.

Andy Glockner of The Cauldron provides just one of a few reasons the Cowboys are at an advantage:

Maximizing every possession is key in the Big Dance. It helps that Larry Nance Jr. is back after an injury cost him four games in February (and hurt the Cowboys in a big way). He leads the team in scoring (16.1) and rebounding (7.2) and can match up with the best players the Panthers will field.

The Panthers tout plenty of star power thanks to forward Seth Tuttle, the Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year. Great, but the duo of Nance and Derek Cooke Jr. present an athleticism in the paint he's not accustomed to dealing with when it matters most.

An ability to play keep away, score at a consistent clip and contain Tuttle makes Wyoming a smart 12-over-5 pick.

Prediction: Wyoming 60, Northern Iowa 55

No. 6 Providence 

Alex Trautwig/Getty Images

Maybe this isn't fair, but Providence makes the list as an early-exit candidate. 

Boise State and Dayton will collide in the First Four for the right to go at Providence, and both are capable of the upset.

The Broncos, mentioned above, rank 44th in RPI, and before the overtime loss to Wyoming hit on a tear, winning 15 of 16. Senior Derrick Marks is one of the nation's best scorers at 19.3 points per game and is a big part of why the Broncos could take down Providence.

Then there's the Dayton Flyers, 32nd in RPI and on a nice tear of their own before a loss in the Atlantic 10 title game. Senior Jordan Sibert (16.5 points per game) is the biggest reason not to count out the Flyers.

This is mostly about the Friars, though, 23rd in RPI. As ESPN Stats & Info points out, advanced metrics suggest Ed Cooley's team is perhaps a bit too high:

The Friars lean on the two-headed monster of LaDontae Henton (19.7 points per game) and Kris Dunn (15.8) for production.

It's an approach that is backfiring as of late, though, as Henton shot 2-of-9 from the field with nine points in a loss to Villanova, while Dunn's volume-based 9-of-19 for 22 points was not enough to survive the Big East semifinals.

Providence has been erratic like this all year, hence a 6-8 mark against the RPI Top 50 and just a .500 showing in the team's last 12 outings.

Against one of two talented teams ripe with momentum after starting the tournament early, the Friars are in trouble.

Prediction: Dayton 64, Providence 61

Stats and info are courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.