NCAA Bracket 2015: Picks and Updated Odds Ahead of Tuesday's 1st-Round Schedule

As March Madness spreads across the nation, the NCAA's tournament opening round is shrugged off as an unnecessary afterthought.

For the most part, the play-in games merely create confusion among onlookers who must catch themselves before identifying the round of 64 as Round 1. The hectic batch of 32 games is widely viewed as the tournament's initiation, but four games make up the real opening action.

Four of the eight squads are small conference champions competing for the right to get squashed by a No. 1 seed. The other four, however, are legitimate teams with strong track records.

Nobody needs to predict these games in their brackets, but giving them a glance could help identify a potential second-round threat.  

Date	Region	Matchup	Time (ET)	Odds	Pick
Tuesday, Mar. 17	Midwest (16)	Hampton vs. Manhattan	6:40 p.m.	MAN -9	MAN
Tuesday, Mar. 17	West (11)	BYU vs. Ole Miss	9:10 p.m.	BYU -4	BYU
Wednesday, Mar. 18	South (16)	Robert Morris vs. North Florida	6:40 p.m.	NFL -3	NFL
Wednesday, Mar. 18	East (11)	Dayton vs. Boise State	9:10 p.m.	DAY -4	DAY

All odds, courtesy of Odds Shark, are updated as of late Monday night.

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Midwest No. 16 : Manhattan vs. Hampton

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

OK, so this one doesn't matter. The loser goes home, and the winner gets sacrificed to Kentucky in the second round. 

Per KenPom.com, Hampton is the worst team among the field of 68, ranked No. 250 overall. The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champion is also the tournament's only participant with a losing record at 16-17, but it won the conference tournament to steal a spot from a more deserving school.

Manhattan is no juggernaut either. At 19-13 and rated No. 146 on KenPom.com, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference champions wouldn't have made any noise if given a fair shake. The New York Post's Twitter page captured the team's dismay after learning its fate:

At least the Jaspers will be able to say they won an NCAA tournament game, albeit a play-in contest against an improbable contestant in the Pirates.

Pick: Manhattan

West No. 11: BYU vs. Ole Miss

David Becker/Associated Press

Look, here's a game that means something. The winner of Tuesday's showdown between BYU and Ole Miss gets a winnable second-round date with Xavier, who won three of its last six games by a combined nine points.

The Musketeers' largest victory over that stretch—a six-point win over Butler—came in overtime. Although not knowing who advances to the round of 64 creates uncertainty, selecting BYU or Ole Miss over Xavier presents a worthwhile gamble.

BYU and Ole Miss should also prove the opening round's most entertaining slate. The Cougars rank No. 9 in KenPom.com's adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Rebels don't trail far behind at No. 22. 

Dave Rose's fast-paced style led BYU to tally 83.6 points per game this season. As noted by Cougar Stats, Barry Allen might as well run the offense: 

The WCC club solidified its spot by upending Gonzaga on Feb. 28. Although losing last week's rematch snapped its eight-game losing streak, BYU is a dangerous No. 11 seed behind Tyler Haws' efficient 21.9 points per game and Kyle Collinsworth's NCAA-record six triple-doubles.

Pick: BYU

South No. 16: North Florida vs. Robert Morris

Lance King/Getty Images

Despite making seven tournament appearances, the Robert Morris Colonials have only one win under their belt. The North Florida Ospreys, however, are dancing on the big stage for the first time.

And they're bringing some unorthodox moves to the tournament:

Fine, it's not the best sign when the favorite is best known for a fan dancing with all his might. The North Florida band member probably wouldn't have raged so hard if he realized the team would have to play for the privilege to lose to Duke.

Both underwhelming No. 16 seeds are at least playing their best basketball. Robert Morris enters the matchup with a six-game winning streak, and North Florida has captured eight consecutive victories. 

Robert Morris, however, did not defeat a team in the top 150 of ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) all year. North Florida, who resides at No. 131 in BPI, scored 75.7 points per game this season. That offensive firepower will prove enough to face the Blue Devils.

Pick: North Florida

East No. 11: Boise State vs. Dayton

Mary Altaffer/Associated Press

According to FiveThirtyEight's projections, Providence has a 53 percent chance of besting Boise State or Dayton. For a No. 6 seed, those odds represent an opportunity for a sensible upset pick.

By KenPom.com's calculations, this matchup can't get much closer. Boise State holds a No. 39 team rating, but Dayton stands one step behind at No. 40. Their Pythagorean ratings are separated by .0034. 

For those complaining about some nerd throwing fancy numbers at them, their records are identical at 25-8.

Yet FiveThirtyEight sets the Flyers' probability of rolling to the third round at 38 percent, giving the Broncos a nine percent chance at capsizing the Friars. The discrepancy stems from Dayton lucking into a home game.

Per The Associated Press' Joe Kay, via ABC.com, Boise State head coach Leon Rice addressed the challenge of playing a tournament game on the opponent's home court.

"Well, I think our travel's going to be a little harder than theirs," Rice said. "You get to the NCAA Tournament, you're going to play somebody really good. That's what we're going to do. Now we've got to play a road game, too."

This game would have been a coin-flip at a neutral location. Since Dayton is a perfect 16-0 at the UD Arena, the arrow jumps distinctly in its direction.

Pick: Dayton