10 Teams That Could Ruin Contenders' 2016 College Football Playoff Hopes
Entering the second season of the College Football Playoff, we still don't know a lot about how the system will work. One of the most important things we do know is to get selected, teams not only must win most all their games, but they must play (and run through) a hard schedule. TCU and Baylor learned that the hard way, and if they plan on competing for national titles, then they must beef up their non-conference schedules.
The teams with the best chance of making the College Football Playoff, before the season starts, should run through the hard schedules they play. If teams have hard schedules, then the voters are more forgiving on a loss; three of the four teams in last season's College Football Playoff lost a game, but they had enough wins over strong opponents to make up for it.
If the top teams in college football were to lose a game (or two) this season, then which teams are most likely to defeat them? That's what I've predicted for today.
To rank the teams, I used the same composite that Brian Leigh of B/R used for his pre-spring practice record predictions. The larger sample size than just the B/R Top 25 allows for a more accurate prediction of which teams will indeed be considered the best in the nation prior to the season.
I strongly considered the rankings of the teams, the rankings of the teams they're playing and the amount of times they're playing highly ranked teams when deciding which teams to select for the list. I also didn't include any teams that would be considered contenders, so no teams ranked better than No. 19 made the list.
With that, here are the teams with the best chance of beating teams with the best chance of making the 2016 College Football Playoff.
No. 23 Arkansas
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After Bobby Petrino left the program, Arkansas experienced two dreadful seasons, but Bret Bielema has the Razorbacks primed for a comeback in 2015. Last season, Bielema led the team to a bowl victory, and the winning should be more frequent moving forward.
Arkansas has arguably the top running back duo in the country in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. Each player had at least 200 carries, 1,100 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2014. Though the Razorbacks are more of a running team, they're not bad when passing the ball, either.
Quarterback Brandon Allen returns, along with his top two receivers from 2014, wide receiver Keon Hatcher and tight end Hunter Henry. Allen doesn't throw as much as some other guys around the country, but his 20-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season proves he's very effective.
To the benefit of both phases of the offense, the Razorbacks return four of their starting five offensive linemen from last season.
Defensively, Arkansas can play with any team in the country. In 2014, the Razorbacks finished 10th nationally in scoring defense, as they allowed just over 19 points per game. Three players from last year's defense should get picked in the 2015 NFL draft (Trey Flowers, Martrell Spaight, Darius Philon), but defensive coordinator Robb Smith has six returning to his unit.
In 2015, Arkansas will play four of the Top 20 in the poll: No. 4 Alabama, No. 7 Auburn, No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 18 LSU. The Razorbacks shut out LSU and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks last season, and they lost to Alabama by a single point.
No. 30 Florida
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Aside from the 2012 season, which ended in a loss in the 2013 Sugar Bowl, Florida didn't play the way its capable of under Will Muschamp. Now Muschamp is gone, Jim McElwain is in and the Gators are again trending up.
Even though the defense remained strong under Muschamp, the offense sputtered. Florida finished no better than eighth in the SEC in scoring offense in any of Muschamp's four seasons as head coach. McElwain will change that for the better, and with an improved unit, the Gators will be again a team capable of winning the SEC East.
McElwain won two national championships with Alabama as its offensive coordinator. As head coach of Colorado State, he dramatically improved the team every season. Thanks to McElwain, former Rams quarterback Garrett Grayson is arguably a top-five quarterback in the 2015 NFL draft, and wide receiver Rashard Higgins was a finalist for the 2014 Biletnikoff Award.
The Gators don't play Alabama or Auburn in 2015, but that's about the only two breaks they get playing in the SEC. Four of the Top 20 teams in the poll appear on Florida's schedule: No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 9 Florida State, No. 14 Georgia and No. 18 LSU.
The Gators played Florida State, Georgia and LSU last season. They beat Georgia by 18, and they only lost to Florida State and LSU by a combined eight points.
No. 20 Georgia Tech
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Georgia Tech won the 2014 Orange Bowl. A lot of pieces from that team are gone, especially on offense. With Justin Thomas returning, though, it's not a big deal.
Thomas, the quarterback of the Yellow Jackets' triple-option offense, will be without much of his friends in the Georgia Tech backfield. After Thomas, only three of the next eleven leaders in carries return from last season.
Replacing a quarterback and offensive linemen would be a harder job with such a situation, but that's not happening; therefore, the solid base remains.
Along with Thomas and four offensive linemen, Georgia Tech returns eight defensive starters from 2014. It's a huge reason why the Yellow Jackets could be a Top 20 team in 2015.
Georgia Tech will face four teams in the Top 15 of the poll: No. 9 Florida State, No. 12 Clemson, No. 14 Georgia and No. 15 Notre Dame. It's certainly challenging, but you can't look past Paul Johnson's triple-option offense, ever.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 30 Minnesota
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The Minnesota Golden Gophers, ranked 30th in the poll, play the first- and second-ranked teams in 2015: the Ohio State Buckeyes and the TCU Horned Frogs.
Though Minnesota hasn't won a bowl game since 2004, it's a program on the rise. Since Jerry Kill took over as head coach in 2011, he's increased or matched the win total from the previous season. Near the end of last season, the Golden Gophers earned their first Top 25 ranking in the AP poll since 2008.
Minnesota loses its top two offensive weapons from last season, running back David Cobb and tight end Maxx Williams, but quarterback Mitch Leidner returns. Leidner is the team's returning rushing leader; he ran for 10 touchdowns in 2014, as well.
Minnesota only lost to Ohio State last season by seven points, so the Buckeyes shouldn't take the Golden Gophers lightly in 2015. TCU beat Minnesota by 23 points last season, but being that this matchup is the opener in 2015, and the Golden Gophers are the home team, expect a closer result.
No. 27 Mississippi State
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The Mississippi State Bulldogs have always played great teams as part of the SEC, but now, they're one of the great teams in the conference. Last season, the Bulldogs proved it by earning their first No. 1 ranking in the AP poll.
Though Mississippi State returns the fourth-fewest starters in FBS from last season, two of the most important reasons for the team's resurgence return.
Head coach Dan Mullen has led the rebound of the program, but its face is quarterback Dak Prescott. The rising senior finished eighth in the 2014 Heisman voting, and he's a favorite to take it home in 2015, according to Michael Bonner of The Clarion-Ledger. With a Heisman-caliber quarterback, Mississippi State can beat any team in the country.
The Bulldogs play four of the top 20 teams in the poll in 2015: No. 4 Alabama, No. 7 Auburn, No. 7 Ole Miss, and No. 18 LSU. They went 2-2 against this same quartet last season, so they're certain to ruin the dreams of a College Football Playoff contender or two again this season.
No. 25 Oklahoma
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Even though Oklahoma isn't the king of the Big 12 right now, it's still a nationally relevant program that can win just about every game it plays.
In 2015, the Sooners play two of the top three teams in the country heading into the season, TCU and Baylor. Oklahoma didn't fare well against the Bears in 2014, but it lost to the Horned Frogs by only four points. Bob Stoops' squad should contend in both games this season.
Thanks to Samaje Perine, Oklahoma was more of a running team in 2014. Thanks to new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, who will bring in an Air Raid offense, the Sooners should have more balance in 2015. Though the Air Raid usually means passing on passing, Perine is too good a rusher to ignore, and Stoops has acknowledged this.
The Sooners' offense will be harder to stop in 2015, and that's not comforting news to TCU and Baylor.
No. 24 Oklahoma State
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Under head coach Mike Gundy, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have seen better days, but they've been one of the best programs in college football over the past half decade.
Nine teams play both TCU and Baylor in 2015, but Oklahoma State is the team most likely to defeat them. At No. 24, the Cowboys have the highest ranking in the poll of the nine teams in this group.
With 16 starters returning to a program that won seven games (including a bowl) in 2014, expect the Cowboys to improve from last season. They struggled against TCU and Baylor last season, but they only lost to Florida State by six points.
No. 19 Stanford
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Stanford went 8-5 and won a bowl game in 2014, but that's a down year for the program of late. This season, the Cardinal will look to reach a New Year's Six Bowl at the worst. They played in a BCS bowl in each of the previous four seasons before last.
Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan and his offense will have to lead the entire team because most all the defensive contributors from last season are gone, according to Tom FitzGerald of the San Francisco Chronicle. That defense let up the second-fewest points per game in the nation in 2014.
In 2015, the Cardinal play five of the Top 15 in the poll: No. 5 Oregon, No. 10 USC, No. 11 UCLA, No. 15 Arizona and No. 15 Notre Dame. All but Arizona are repeat opponents from 2014, and Stanford went 1-3 against the quartet. Stanford was blown out by Oregon (who wasn't?), but only lost the USC and Notre Dame games by three points each.
Quite simply, Stanford isn't far removed from being among the elite in college football, either in the past or in the future.
No. 28 Texas A&M
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Like most SEC programs, Texas A&M will have a loaded schedule in 2015. The Aggies also get a non-conference game against one of the top teams in the country, which gives them even more opportunities to affect the outcome of the College Football Playoff.
Texas A&M will have a more balanced team this season, thanks to its hire of former LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis. Expect the defense to be much better than the 2014 version, which allowed over 28 points per game and 450 yards per game.
Five of the top 20 teams in the poll appear on the Aggies' schedule in 2015: No. 4 Alabama, No. 7 Auburn, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 13 Arizona State and No. 18 LSU. Texas A&M didn't play Arizona State last season, but went 1-3 against the other four teams.
No. 29 Utah
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Utah's Devontae Booker didn't get much national press in 2014. In 2015, acknowledgement of Booker's game will spread wider than the Pac-12.
Booker is the FBS returning leader in plays from scrimmage (335) from 2014. With the Utes losing much of their receiving corps from last season, expect that number to rise this season.
Of course, Booker will get most of the attention from opposing defenses, but the defense is good, too. The Utes finished fourth in the conference in scoring defense, and the unit returns seven starters.
Utah will have a major say in which teams make the 2016 College Football Playoff. This season, the Utes play five of the Top 15 in the poll: No. 5 Oregon, No. 10 USC, No. 11 UCLA, No. 13 Arizona State, and No. 15 Arizona. In 2014, Utah finished 3-2 against these teams, and it only lost to Arizona State by three points.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
