Ranking the Top Freshmen in the 2015 NCAA Tournament
In an era when the most talented freshmen players are one-and-done in college basketball and then off to the NBA, this crop of first-year collegians about to enter their first and perhaps only NCAA tournament is extraordinary.
Television analyst Clark Kellogg has said on CBSSports.com that this is "Year of the Freshmen."
We've all seen what Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell and others are capable of thus far. But how will they fare under the pressure of the biggest tournament of their young lives?
Kentucky coach John Calipari said he isn't worried about how all his fabulous freshmen will handle it, although he did challenge each of them to turn their games up one tiny notch.
"We have some guys that are playing better than they ever have in their life," Calipari said, via Reid Foxgrave of FoxSports.com. "The question is, as you go into these last few weeks, how do you add two or three percent to your game?"
So who is the best in this outstanding class of freshmen? And the best of the rest?
This ranking is based not only on statistical evidence, or what scores of scouts, coaches and media have said and written about them, but also multiple eye tests. How they've lifted their teams thus far this season and their potential for hiking that to a new level in the tournament are also factors. Here are the top 12 freshmen who will show off their wares in the upcoming NCAAs.
12. Tyler Ulis, Kentucky
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What he's done: Hey, somebody has to feed the ball to all those Kentucky scorers. Despite playing only 23.5 minutes per night, Tyler Ulis averages a team-leading 3.8 assists. Although he doesn't shoot that often himself, he's smart about it when he does. His 41.8 three-point field-goal percentage reflects that and says something about his range. Almost half of his field-goal attempts have come from beyond the arc.
Why he's dangerous: Ulis' value as a playmaker who facilitates the Kentucky offense when he's on the court cannot be overstated. This is reflected in the fact that while he has totaled 120 assists on the season, he has committed only 34 turnovers.
He wasn't Calipari's first choice at point guard on the recruiting trail last year, and Ulis knows it. He plays like he has something to prove to his coach and everyone who doubted him because of his size (5'9", 155 pounds dripping wet). Calipari said Ulis won him over because of this intensity. "I watched this kid play and I couldn't believe his fight and the fire he had and his ability to play to win," Calipari said, via Kyle Tucker of The Courier-Journal.
Why he's here: Ulis is a pure competitor. When he's on the court, he's the little engine that makes big, bad Kentucky go. He's smart, quick and has all the skills a point guard needs to excel at the collegiate level, despite his lack of size.
11. Trey Lyles, Kentucky
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What he's done: Only at Kentucky in this exceptional season could a freshman of Trey Lyles' immense talent almost get lost in the shuffle. And since he's 6'10", that's hard to do. Lyles, however, knows how to earn at least a share of the spotlight and has done it with an efficient season (8.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.1 APG on 49.7 percent field-goal shooting in just 22.3 minutes a night).
Why he's dangerous: Lyles might be most dangerous because with all of Kentucky's other weapons, folks tend to forget about him. Even with the full attention of the defense, he's difficult to deal with in the paint. He can get to the free-throw line and once there, he usually makes his foul shots (74.1 percent).
"I still think at the end of the day he'll be the X-factor for us. He'll be the guy that they struggle to guard, that has offensive skills, that can still give us great size and rebounding ability," Calipari said at the end of February after Lyles scored a season-high 18 points at Mississippi State, via Tucker.
Why he's here: Lyles missed three games at the end of January and in early February with what his father told Kentucky Sports Radio, via Sporting News, was a version of strep throat. It set him back some in a season when he already was just a little less assertive than some of his fellow Kentucky freshmen, mainly fellow big man Karl-Anthony Towns. But make no mistake, Lyles is a first-round NBA talent who will play a huge role in Kentucky's March Madness campaign.
10. Kelly Oubre, Kansas
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What he's done: After a slow start to his season, when he earned just 91 minutes on the court over the first nine games—largely because he was frustrated and too much into doing his own thing instead of buying into the team concept—Kelly Oubre has emerged as a team leader for the Jayhawks. For the season, he's averaging 9.3 points and 5.0 rebounds and has 39 steals in just 20.9 minutes per game. And all those numbers, including minutes, have been trending upward since December.
Why he's dangerous: The lefty is filled with the confidence he seemed to be lacking at the beginning of the season when he struggled to fit in. As coach Bill Self told Sports Illustrated's Brian Hamilton recently of Oubre, "He can do a little bit of everything." That includes scoring, rebounding and even guarding the opposition's top offensive player, if that's what Self asks of him.
Why he's here: Oubre might be ranked higher if he had been able to assert himself earlier in the season. He seems to have stepped up his overall game since fellow Kansas freshman Cliff Alexander was sidelined by Self on Feb. 23 while the NCAA investigates possible violations, per Yahoo Sports. Oubre more or less replaced Alexander on this list, as Self told ESPN's Andy Katz that Alexander has now been ruled out for the NCAA tournament.
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9. Justin Jackson, North Carolina
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What he's done: Justin Jackson, a 6'8" swingman, is not a spectacular player—at least not yet. But he is versatile and does lots of things pretty well, averaging 10.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 26.5 minutes per game. He's also smart and doesn't turn the ball over very much, and therefore is usually a very efficient offensive player.
Why he's dangerous: Jackson came into college billed as an all-around player with the ability to stretch defenses by at least occasionally hitting the three-point shot, but he's shot poorly from beyond the arc this season. That seems to be changing of late, which could greatly aid the Tar Heels in the tournament.
Of North Carolina's upset of Virginia in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament, Rob Dauster of CollegeBasketballTalk.com wrote, "The key was Jackson, who hit 8-for-10 from the floor and 4-for-5 from three, with each three seemingly coming at a critical moment in the game. … If he can consistently become a three-point threat and a guy that can be counted on for 13-15 points, it makes the Tar Heels that much more dangerous."
Why he's here: Jackson has been getting better as the season progresses. He's playing his best basketball of the year right now and showed against Virginia how his improved offensive play could lift North Carolina in the NCAA tournament. The problem is he's still prone to some inconsistency, as evidenced by the fact that he shot 0-for-7 on threes and only 3-of-12 overall during UNC's loss to Notre Dame in the ACC title game.
8. Devin Booker, Kentucky
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What he's done: Devin Booker is like several of Kentucky's freshmen: His numbers would be much greater if he played at another school where he would get more minutes on a less talented roster. As it is, the sharpshooting 6'6" guard is averaging 10.5 points in only 21.8 minutes per game. Of course, that's makes him the balanced team's second-leading scorer.
Why he's dangerous: Booker is a dead-eye shooter with three-point range, hitting 47.2 percent overall from the field and 42.9 percent on threes. What team wouldn't love to have a guy like this? Furthermore, Calipari said recently that Booker has become even more than a shooter since the start of the season.
"He's not just a three-point shooter now," Calipari said, via Tucker. "He defends, he rebounds, he does all those other things."
Why he's here: He's a key piece to the undefeated puzzle that is Kentucky's season thus far. And now that he's more than just a pure shooter, he could help the 'Cats complete their unbeaten journey.
7. Tyus Jones, Duke
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What he's done: The only Duke player who averages more minutes than the 33.2 per game Tyus Jones does is senior Quinn Cook, which says a whole lot. Coach Mike Krzyzewski wants Jones on the court as much as possible. Jones averages 11.6 points and a team-leading 5.8 assists while shooting 38.3 percent from three-point range, and he also leads the team in total steals with 49.
Why he's dangerous: Even though he's only 6'1", Jones has a strength about him that belies his size. He also has the right mentality to take over close games at the end. He has been perceptive and mature enough from the start to learn to co-exist in the Duke backcourt with Cook, who in turn has been smart enough, along with Krzyzewski, to let Jones handle most of the playmaking duties when the two guards are on the court together.
"It wasn't like any competition, we were always trying to help each other," Cook told ESPN.com's C.L. Brown. "He's like a sponge; he's always asking questions. He's the best point guard in the country in my eyes."
Why he's here: It said a whole lot about Jones when he made a key turnover late in Duke's first game against archrival North Carolina, and then spent the rest of regulation and overtime making up for it with an aggressive, frenetic series of plays that arguably won the game for the Blue Devils. He may be a smallish point guard, but he's bullish and fearless when he senses he needs to be.
6. Justise Winslow, Duke
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What he's done: Justise Winslow is a terrific athlete who contributes across the board for Duke, averaging 28.7 minutes, 12.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field overall and 39.6 percent on three-pointers. The 6'6" small forward also has a physical, gritty edge to him that serves him well on the defensive side of the ball (or at least that's what Duke fans would say, while critics might say he's a little dirty).
Why he's dangerous: Coach K has said that Winslow is the most talented wing player he has coached at Duke since Grant Hill, per Ricky O'Donnell of SB Nation. And Hill likes Winslow's versatile skill set, too. "I like the fact that he competes on the defensive end, he can score, he's unselfish, he can shoot from the perimeter, he can get to the line, he's got good size," said Hill, the former Duke standout who is now a broadcaster.
Why he's here: Winslow might be ranked higher if he sometimes didn't lose his head a little bit and do some silly, almost stupid, things on the court. But overall, he's a key component to almost everything Duke tries to do on both sides of the ball and he'll need to play well for them to advance deep into the NCAA tournament.
5. Melo Trimble, Maryland
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What he's done: All Melo Trimble has done is lead Maryland in scoring (16.3), assists (3.1), minutes played (33.5) and steals (1.2) per game. He can play point guard, penetrate and finish or dish, and he can shoot the rock with range while playing off the ball. What else do you need to know?
Why he's dangerous: Trimble also is a deft handler of the basketball who can get past defenders and into the lane to draw fouls with alarming frequency. He's fifth in the nation in free-throws made (no other freshman is in the top 50) and his free-throw percentage is 86.5, making him invaluable down the stretch in tight games. That could come in quite handy in the tournament. Matt Borcas of Grantland wrote, "With deep range and a decent handle, Trimble is a prototypical combo guard. … Trimble can get to the foul line with impressive ease."
Why he's here: Few other freshmen in the country have impacted their teams in a more positive way than Trimble has this season. The 6'3" guard even averages a respectable 3.6 rebounds per game. He is a huge reason why Maryland (27-6 overall after going 14-4 in the Big Ten regular season) is ranked 12th in the nation in both the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches polls even after losing to Michigan State in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament.
4. Stanley Johnson, Arizona
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What he's done: The better question might be what hasn't he done? At 6'7", 245 pounds, Stanley Johnson is a load for opposing teams to deal with. His game is much like Charles Barkley's was back in the day, except Barkley was a better rebounder. While averaging 28.4 minutes per night, Johnson's numbers across the board are impressive: 14.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.7 APG and 1.5 SPG while shooting 36.6 percent on three-pointers.
Why he's dangerous: Arizona coach Sean Miller has relied on him more and more as the season has progressed, and Johnson has responded by delivering more and more. He also can get to the free-throw line with ease, where his percentage is 72.9. "He’s a man-child," an NBA scout told Mitch Lawrence of Forbes.com. "He’s built like a linebacker. But here’s the deal: He’s got a lot of skills. He can shoot it and he can handle the ball. He rebounds. If he comes out, he’s going to be a top lottery pick."
Why he's here: Arizona (31-3 overall) won the Pac-12 regular-season title and then backed it up by winning the conference tournament for the first time in 13 years. How they weren't a No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament is sort of hard to figure, but the fact that they wouldn't be in the discussion without Johnson isn't.
3. D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State
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What he's done: D'Angelo Russell is one of only two freshman among the top 50 scorers in the nation, as his average of 19.3 points per game ranks 22nd (Duke's Jahlil Okafor is the other at 50th). He's also one of only two freshmen in the top 30 in the nation in three-pointers made (90) and three-point field-goal percentage (41.5). Russell is second in the nation among freshmen behind only Duke's Tyus Jones in assists (168, or 5.1 per game). Those numbers kind of speak for themselves.
Why he's dangerous: Did we mention that he also leads the Buckeyes in minutes played (33.5), rebounds (5.6) and steals (1.6) per game? This 6'5" combo guard does it all. He also learned very early on to co-exist with senior guard Shannon Scott, and they've been a good fit together, switching off who runs the point and who plays off the ball.
But the truth is that despite his youth, Russell is better with the ball in his hands and takes great pride in his passing, which is, at times, nothing short of spectacular. "I feel like it's a lost art. I'd rather make a nice pass than have 30 points or go dunk on somebody. It's just in me," Russell told Nicole Auerbach of USA Today.
Why he's here: Russell's skills are obvious and almost overwhelming. He can be just a tad inconsistent at times, as can his team. But for a freshman, his leadership and overall production have been off the charts.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
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What he's done: In a season when all the talk has been about Jahlil Okafor being the best big man in the nation, freshmen and all, Karl-Anthony Towns has consistently gotten better and at least injected himself into the conversation. He doesn't play big minutes because he plays for Kentucky, so his numbers don't compare with Okafor's or other big men at first glance. But he's talented and can get it done in the post.
Why he's dangerous: At 6'11" and 250 pounds with a frame that still could use a little more bulk and muscle, he's scary athletic around the basket. He averages only 20.7 minutes per game, but that's likely to go up in the NCAA tournament, and so will the rest of his numbers (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG). He shoots 55.4 percent from the floor and 81.4 percent from the free-throw line, which he gets to frequently. He also leads his team in total blocks with 80 (23rd overall in the nation, fourth among all freshmen).
Why he's here: Calipari sometimes has to implore Towns not to try to do too much on his own, but that hasn't often been a problem. "He's so good he doesn't have to do crazy stuff," the Kentucky coach told ESPN's Mark Schlabach after a Wildcats win over Georgia late in the year. One obvious advantage Towns has over Duke's Okafor is on free-throw percentage, and Calipari doesn't have to worry about his big man going to the line late in a close game.
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke
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What he's done: Okafor has been so tremendous that he became the first freshman to win ACC Player of the Year in the conference's storied 61-year history. In 30.5 minutes per game, he's averaging 17.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.4 blocks while shooting 66.9 percent from the field.
Why he's dangerous: If he gets the ball and the double-team comes, Okafor knows how to pass out of it to one of Duke's many capable perimeter shooters. Dare not to double him, and he'll score. It's pretty much that simple. He's also a formidable presence taking the ball off the glass at both ends and blocking shots. The only downside to his game, which could prove dangerous to Duke if they get deep in the tournament and are involved in a tight game, is his subpar free-throw shooting (51.1 percent).
Why he's here: "He’s as good as anybody I’ve coached at Duke," Krzyzewski told Jim Rome. That pretty much says it all, since in his 34 seasons, Coach K has coached 28 All-Americans, seven National Player of the Year award winners and 49 NBA draft choices (including 28 first-rounders and 18 lottery picks).
Unless otherwise noted, individual season statistics from NCAA.com.
Joe Menzer has written six books, including one about college basketball titled Four Corners, and now writes about college hoops and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as working as a writer and editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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