Overrated Teams You Should Be Wary of Picking in Your 2015 March Madness Pool

Well, college basketball fans, we've made it.

The seeds have been sown, the bracket has been set, and the debates over the best and worst draws have commenced. 

Now, all that's left to do is to fill out your brackets.

While a big part of picking upsets is knowing which lower-ranked teams are full of Cinderella magic, another part is recognizing which higher-seeded teams are vulnerable. That's where this list comes in.

I've selected six teams I don't see living up to their billing, whether due to lackluster recent form, over-seeding by the committee or overhype by, well, everyone.

Here are some teams you should think twice about before picking.

(4) Louisville, East

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Overall record: 24-8
Conference record: 12-6
RPI: 21

In March, I always worry a lot about teams that are limping into the tournament.

In this case we're talking about Louisville, the ACC squad that has lost two of its last three. (The losses came to Notre Dame and North Carolina; the win, against Virginia.) It's just hard to believe in a team that has the talent to topple Virginia but also lost back-to-back games against N.C. State and Syracuse this February.

The Cardinals were a fun team to watch throughout the year, and there were certainly times they looked like a sleeper candidate to win it all. However, this simply isn't the same group that was impressing in December and January.

"They’re not the same since they lost Chris Jones for the year," Doug Gottlieb said on the CBS selection show. "They’re living a little bit on reputation.”

I especially see the Cardinals having a rough go of it if they face the stingy Northern Iowa defense in the third round.

(4) Georgetown, South

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Overall record: 21-10
Conference record: 12-6
RPI: 25

Don't believe the selection committee's hype when it comes to Georgetown, you guys. If the reaction on Twitter is any indication, its placement as a No. 4 seed is ridiculous. 

Sure, the Hoyas have a star in D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera. Sure, they beat Villanova by 20 points this year, a result that raised more than a few eyebrows and made them a popular pick as a bracket buster. But beware.

After all, this is a team that isn't overly effective on offense or defense (131st in the nation in scoring defense, 89th in offense). The Hoyas also run extremely hot and cold, as the second half of their Big East semifinal loss to Xavier showcased—they got down by 21 points and rallied to get within two in the final minute before coming up just short. It's hard to trust them.

Plus, Georgetown hasn't had any success in the NCAA tournament lately.

"Georgetown hasn't made it past the first weekend since a 2007 Final Four run," Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore pointed out. "Last time the Hoyas were in the NCAA tournament, they were victims of 'Dunk City' and Florida Gulf Coast." 

I'd be surprised if the Hoyas made it out of the first week. In the second round, they face the Eastern Washington Eagles, who are the third-highest-scoring team in the nation. There is no time to ease into the tournament.

(3) Oklahoma, East

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Overall record: 22-10
Conference record: 12-6
RPI: 18

The Oklahoma Sooners have had some great wins in the crowded Big 12 this season, including victories over Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia. They're also a superb rebounding team, which you'd think would give them a big edge in the NCAA tournament. However, it's hard to see them making a deep run this month.

Potential opponents Providence, Boise State and Dayton could all take out the Sooners in the second round.

They aren't even in the top 60 in the nation in points scored or points allowed, and they've had terrible production from their bench lately. As reported by ESPN.com, the Sooners only got two points off the bench in two Big 12 tournament games. That's not going to cut it in the Big Dance.

Plus, the last time we saw Oklahoma on the court, it was the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament, and Ryan Spangler had just missed a gimme layup that would have tied the game with Iowa State with seconds to go. That's tough to recover from.

(2) Virginia, East

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Overall record: 29-3
Conference record: 16-2
RPI: 7

Look, the Virginia Cavaliers had a great season, and with a regular-season ACC championship and only three losses, they had a solid case to be a No. 1 seed. However, they're overrated as we head into the tournament.

Coach Tony Bennett is superb, and his defense holds opponents to only 50.7 points per game. But Virginia has looked pedestrian so far this March, losing two of its past three to Louisville and North Carolina.

Teams are figuring out how to play against the Virginia defense. It's not going to be an easy task, but if you can match their toughness inside, get the boards and take your shots when you get them, the Cavaliers are very beatable.

Belmont is a very tough No. 15 seed to face in the second round, and Michigan State could rattle Virginia in the third. 

At 225th in the nation in scoring, the Cavaliers just don't have the offense to keep up with anyone.

(2) Kansas, Midwest

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Overall record: 26-8
Conference record: 13-5
RPI: 2

The Kansas Jayhawks have been talked about as one of the best teams in the country all year, but in my opinion, they're more middle-of-the-pack than their record, ranking (No. 9 in the Associated Press Top 25) and seeding suggest, especially based on recent weeks. 

In the last five weeks, the Jayhawks have lost to five teams ranked below them: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Iowa State.

They're not elite on offense or defense, either: The Big 12 regular-season champions are 80th in the nation in points scored (71.2) and 133rd in the nation in points allowed (64.7). Perry Ellis and Frank Mason Jr. are the only two players on the team to average in double digits, but neither of them even averages 14 points per game.

Both of Kansas' possible third-round opponents, Wichita State and Indiana, have the potential to send the Jayhawks packing before the first weekend of the tournament is over.

(1) Villanova, East

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Overall record: 32-2
Conference record: 16-2
RPI: 3

If you haven't picked up on it yet, the East Region is where you should expect a lot of chaos to occur. It is littered with overrated high seeds.

In this case, I'm talking about Villanova.

The Wildcats earned a top seed thanks to a very consistent season and an impressive win in the Big East tournament. They've won 15 games in a row, so they certainly have enough momentum heading into the round of 64.

However, they're not ranked in the top 20 in the nation in points allowed or points scored, and they're missing a big presence inside, which can be so crucial late in close, high-pressure tournament games. In fact, they're not even ranked in the top 100 in the nation in offensive or defensive rebounding.

Steady is plenty for the regular season, but it's often not enough in the upset-heavy NCAA tournament. Look for either LSU or N.C. State to give Villanova a run for its money in the third round and for Louisville or Northern Iowa to pose a challenge if the Wildcats make it to the Sweet 16.