March Madness Picks 2015: Top Contenders and Teams to Avoid in Your Bracket

The NCAA tournament bracket is out, and thus the madness begins.

On Sunday night, 68 college basketball teams received admittance into the wild postseason competition. Once everyone is done bickering about seeding and snubbed bubble teams, the next few days get devoted to glorious bracket research.

No road to the Final Four is created equally, with every region presenting opportunities and obstacles for top squads. Picking the higher seed every time is boring, but stuffing your Elite Eight with Cinderella teams is also foolish.

Along with receiving a sprinkle of luck, establishing a balancing act is vital to March Madness success. Let's take the temperature of some prominent programs entering the tournament. 

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Top Contenders

Kentucky

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In the immortal words of Community's Britta Perry, "Duh doy."

Nobody needs to be sold on Kentucky as the runaway favorite. The Wildcats have yet to lose, averaging a 20.9-point margin of victory through 34 wins. KenPom.com rates them No. 1 in its college basketball ratings by a sizable margin. 

Per ESPN Stats & Info, they have a strong probability of running the table:

While Kentucky is the strongest choice to win it all, contestants will have to implement game theory to decipher the utility of riding the popular pick all the way. With the majority of any given pool likely selecting Kentucky over the field, there's little to gain from the SEC juggernaut completing its undefeated campaign.

A Kentucky upset, however, would wield sizable dividends for the contrarian. Although such a method would decrease someone's probability of filing the most accurate bracket, it maximizes the potential gains if those diverging selections pan out.

Besides, Kentucky losing is not outside the realm of possibility. It opened 2015 with consecutive overtime victories, needing two extra regulations to top Texas A&M. Georgia and Florida each gave a good fight during single-digit defeats this month. 

And for casual players just filling out an office pool, where's the fun in conforming to everyone on the obvious pick? Then again, Kentucky is really, really good.

Pick: Final Four (eliminated by Arizona)

Arizona

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Arizona doesn't need a No. 1 seed to prove its legitimacy. Brandishing an 11-game winning streak, amassing an average 22-point victory margin during that stretch, the Wildcats—how is a learning institution unable to think of a mascot not used by half the nation?—are ready to dance. 

Behind those other Wildcats from Kentucky, Arizona places No. 2 in KenPom.com's overall team ratings. Kentucky is the only club inside the top 10 of adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but the Pac-12 champions are No. 3 in defense and No. 11 on offense.

Rank	Team	Pythagorean Rating
1	Kentucky	.9787
2	Arizona	.9674
3	Wisconsin	.9615
4	Virginia	.9587
5	Villanova	.9751

If those metrics seem too abstract, Arizona's 48.9 field-goal percentage is good for sixth in the nation.

ESPN.com's Basketball Power Index (BPI) also depicts Arizona in a positive light, slotting it No. 3 behind Kentucky and Wisconsin. Although Duke's big wins were a common argument for its No. 1 seed, ESPN College BBall turned that talking point on its head using BPI.

"

Duke or Arizona...which team deserves to be a #1 seed? pic.twitter.com/yAWuHPW1Z2

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 15, 2015"

Seeded No. 2 in the West, Arizona shares a region with Wisconsin and Baylor. Either one could make noise, but the Badgers came seconds away from losing that No. 1 seed right before the bracket's release. It's far from a stretch to deem the Wildcats the quadrant's best club.

Pick: Champions

Teams to Avoid

Virginia

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Entering the Big Dance with two losses in their last three games, the Virginia Cavaliers settled for a No. 2 seed in the East region. Although their stifling defense gave opponents fits all season, their limited firepower will preclude them from the Final Four.

Virginia's defense bullied teams all season, earning KenPom.com's top adjusted defensive efficiency rating at 85.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. 

Its performance against ranked competition, however, forebodes trouble. Versus teams ranked at the time of the matchup, Virginia is 4-3 with a plus-21 point differential. Combating the ACC is no easy chore, but a slow-paced attack averaging 65.3 points per game is vulnerable against top scorers.

The regular-season conference champion has especially looked weak due to Justin Anderson's hand injury. Upon returning from a eight-game absence, the guard failed to score in two ACC tournament bouts.

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Coach Tony Bennett admitted concern to The Washington Post's John Feinstein after losing to North Carolina on Friday.

“We need him, no doubt,” Bennett said. “He’s rusty. That’s obvious. I thought tonight he was a little bit better on defense. He made progress. We have to hope he’ll be ready to go next week. We all have to be ready next week.”

Without Anderson at full strength, the Cavaliers could lose as soon as the third round, as No. 7 Michigan State nearly knocked off Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon. If not, No. 3 Oklahoma would match defensive wits in a low-scoring slugfest.

Pick: Round of 32 (eliminated by Michigan State)

Notre Dame

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Is Notre Dame peaking at the right time, or did it already peak too early?

The Fighting Irish boasted their stock by upending Duke and North Carolina on back-to-back days, earning a No. 3 seed after their ACC tournament title. 

Moseying into tournament with the hot hand, Notre Dame will become a popular pick with five straight wins and KenPom.com's second-most efficient offense. Mike Brey's unselfish group is fun to watch, and come on, it just beat Duke!

The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore even assigned Notre Dame the daunting task of slaying Kentucky:

Let's take it easy. During the 74-64 upset, the Blue Devils shot a ghastly 3-of-17 from behind the arc. It took a highly improbably outcome to knock off a proficient offense that netted a 39.1 three-point percentage during the season.

Notre Dame then erupted from long distance against the Tar Heels, towering over the mean with 10 deep bombs in 20 tries. Counting on extreme results is a risky endeavor for a team that lost three of its last nine regular-season games.

The Irish will become the trendy pick among those who think they're going against the grain. Their run, however, won't extend past the Sweet 16.

Pick: Sweet 16 (eliminated by Kansas)