March Madness 2015: Bubble Teams That Will Be Left on the Outside Looking in

As much fun as Selection Sunday is for bubble teams that get in, it's more painful for those left on the outside. After months of building a resume, hoping to compete for a championship, players and coaches are left to think about a game that got away or how they could have done more. 

Even though the NCAA has made the tournament so large with 68 teams that it's hard to imagine any program that gets left out really has a case, it happens every year. That's one disadvantage to not having any set criteria after the automatic bids are set for determining the teams. 

For the most part, though, the selection committee does a good job. There are just teams that don't look as impressive when you stack them up against others, which is the nature of this beast. 

With the final day of conference championship games on the horizon, here are three major-conference teams whose bubble will burst when the brackets are released on Sunday night. 

Note: Team records and RPI stats via ESPN.com

Mississippi (20-12, RPI: 53, Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Of the bubble teams freaking out about what will happen at 6 p.m. ET, Mississippi is at DEFCON 1. The Rebels figuratively burst their own bubble in their opening game of the SEC tournament against South Carolina. 

Ole Miss was given a gift in the final seconds of that game when Jarvis Summers was fouled on a made three-point attempt. He made the free throw to give Mississippi a 58-57 lead, only to see LaDarius White foul Tyrone Johnson on a desperation three with less than one second to play. 

Three free throws later, Mississippi lost 60-58. But the reason this team is on the bubble goes beyond a loss to South Carolina, as noted by Radi Nabulsi of UGASports.com:

When your tournament chances are as dicey as Mississippi's, it's impossible to overstate the importance of finishing. The Rebels didn't do it well, losing four of their last five games, with two of those losses coming against teams outside the RPI top 50 (Vanderbilt, South Carolina). 

In addition to those bad losses, per Zac Ellis of Sports Illustrated, Mississippi has one of the most unusual tournament resumes of any team in the country:

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It ventured to Nashville with a rather unusual resume, having won many of its important games away from home. Wins over Arkansas, Oregon and Cincinnati away from Oxford are impressive, but home losses to the likes of Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern are warts on the face of the Rebels’ tourney argument.

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Ultimately, the Rebels' case comes down to whether you favor their wins or are put off by their losses. It's easier to convince people of the bad than it is to show them the good, so Mississippi will be sitting at home when the NCAA tournament begins. 

UCLA (20-13, RPI: 48, Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-8)

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Unlike Mississippi, UCLA made a strong enough impression in the conference tournament to warrant inclusion in the Big Dance. The Bruins gave Arizona, a possible No. 2 seed, fits in the Pac-12 semifinals before ultimately falling short in a 70-64 loss. 

UCLA guard Bryce Alford knew how much was at stake in that particular game, telling Zach Helfand of the Los Angeles Times, "To know that if we won tonight we were probably a for-sure thing, that's what hurts the most."

Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports wrote the same thing before the game against Arizona, saying "win and the Bruins are in. No bubble team has yet been able to say that."

The loss makes things a little more difficult simply because there's not a lot of strength on the resume. UCLA's two wins against the RPI top 50 came against Utah and Oregon, the latter of which looks better with the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game. 

Other than that, this is a team with 15 of 20 wins against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100. It becomes a resume of how strong the losses look with seven of them coming against teams in the RPI top 20. 

Eamonn Brennan of ESPN said this about where UCLA stands following the loss to Arizona:

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UCLA's constant bubble habitation wasn't by choice. At some point, the Bruins simply reached the outer limits of their potential, and those limits -- while far better than they showed in five straight losses from Dec. 13 to Jan. 4 -- weren't all that high...If there is a reason to be hopeful about UCLA's chances of getting a bid, it is in the margins of that loss -- in the idea that the committee might have seen something it liked. Compared with the rest of the bubble, notwithstanding some decent schedule numbers, this resume simply doesn't stack up.

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Even using the formula I did to keep Mississippi out, UCLA's bad doesn't overwhelm its good, but there's just not enough good to say this is a tournament team. The Bruins haven't done anything, in either direction, to suggest they are a lock to be left out or make it in. 

That's the problem. In a competitive field with at least eight bubble teams fighting for a handful of spots, there has to be something that stands out besides a hard-fought loss against Arizona on March 13. 

Steve Alford's team this season is like a movie that leaves you with a warm feeling walking out of the theater that you immediately forget about once you start the car. 

Texas (20-13, RPI: 42, Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-12)

Eric Gay/Associated Press

On the list of enigmas, Texas stands above the rest. The Longhorns started the year believed to be one of the nation's best teams, being ranked 10th in both major preseason polls. 

Once the games began, though, it was clear that Rick Barnes' team was missing something. Their youth showed in spades, as they often looked overmatched against all of the good teams on the schedule, as evidenced by their 3-12 record against the RPI top 50. 

Now, the pro-Texas argument will point out that this team at least took on a difficult schedule and of the 13 losses, 12 can be considered quality. 

If you are looking for a "good" bad resume, it's hard to do better than Texas. Three losses against the top two teams in RPI (Kentucky, Kansas) could lead the selection committee to give the Longhorns a chance on the grounds that they are battle-tested. 

Still, this is still a team that didn't help itself in the Big 12 tournament, because they were supposed to beat Texas Tech, which they did, and couldn't beat the ranked Iowa State team. That loss was also a perfect amalgam of why Texas is so frustrating, as written by Chuck Carlton of The Dallas Morning News:

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In a season of confounding losses, what unfolded at the Sprint Center might have been the most inexplicable and damaging, a series of mistakes that let Iowa State rally.

Consider: Texas led for 34 minutes, 13 seconds. Iowa State led for one second (rounded up).

How about Isaiah Taylor’s turnover on a 10-second call? Connor Lammert’s errant inbounds pass? Or Javan Felix’s too-early 3-pointer that led to Monte Morris’ game winner?

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Even though it was a close loss to the Cyclones, how much losing can you possibly reward? Does Texas deserve the benefit of the doubt from that game despite blowing a 10-point lead with less than four minutes to play?

After all, that's what we are talking about here. Texas didn't beat enough teams to suggest it should be in the tournament, so it's all about examining the losses. There's no denying the raw talent and potential for this team to surprise with the right matchups, but at some point you have to cut your losses (no pun intended).