Bracketology 2015: Latest Expert Predictions for Top Four Seeds

Friday's ACC surprises will stir up the NCAA tournament's expected top seeds heading into Selection Sunday.

Both candidates for No. 1 spots before conference play, Duke and Virginia suffered early tournament exits. The Blue Devils fell to Notre Dame in a 10-point defeat, while North Carolina outlasted the Cavaliers during a 71-67 upset.

Rather than competing for a sure-fire top seed during the ACC championship, each squad now must hope recency bias doesn't sink its candidacy. Looking around the Web, most analysts believe at least one of the two will still capture prime billing on Sunday night.

Latest Seeding Predictions

The race is intensifying near the finish line, with Kentucky the only certainty for a No. 1 spot. After topping Xavier to secure the Big East title, Villanova is a safe choice despite veering dangerously close to an upset at Providence's hand.

Along with Duke and Virginia, Wisconsin and Arizona have strong cases to headline one of the four regions. Before Wisconsin and Arizona's Saturday slates, The News & Observer's Joe Giglio charted each of the relevant candidates, pointing to Duke's significant wins along with the toughest strength of schedule.

In Saturday's updated bracket projections, ESPN's Joe Lunardi bumped Wisconsin up to a top seed over Virginia, with Duke maintaining its spot. ESPN College BBall provides a graphic of Lunardi's No. 1 and No. 2 teams.

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With Wisconsin defeating Purdue, Joe Lunardi has the Badgers leapfrogging Virginia for the final No. 1 seed. pic.twitter.com/cBzZrDdEH4

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 14, 2015"

While Duke appears safe, Virginia is on the wire. Along with its latest loss to North Carolina, the regular-season ACC champion entered the postseason tournament with a two-point shortcoming against Louisville.

With two losses fresh in everyone's mind, along with stumbling against Duke on Jan. 31, the Cavaliers are on the chopping block.

ESPN's Jay Bilas, via The Washington Post's Scott Allen, also predicts Wisconsin leapfrogging Virginia if it bests Michigan State for the Big Ten crown on Sunday. He saddled the Cavaliers' woes on Justin Anderson's hand injury:

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I think it will be interesting with Virginia because Virginia, to me, has had a magnificent year. If healthy, I think they would be a No. 1 seed without question. The problem is, Virginia does not look like the same team to me with Justin Anderson injured. He’s come back, [but] his left hand, which is his strong hand, is not prepared for high-level play. He didn’t score in the last two games. He put up a couple of shots in their ballgame against North Carolina. He is not the same player.

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Not everyone, however, is ready to ditch them now. John Feinstein of The Washington Post insisted the full body of work still stands out:

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Even so, the loss isn’t all that significant in the grand scheme of things. Unless the basketball selection committee knows even less about the sport than usual, Virginia will still be a No. 1 seed on Sunday night. One loss, to a good team, shouldn’t wipe out the fact that the Cavaliers won the ACC regular season title, winning a conference that will get six bids and has five ranked teams.

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It's important to note neither ACC powerhouse suffered a humiliating defeat. Each school succumbed to a ranked opponent and likely NCAA tournament No. 3 or No. 4 seed. SI.com's Michael Beller believes neither deserves to get punished for a tough loss:

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What, exactly, did either the Blue Devils or Cavaliers do to lose a 1-seed? Virginia lost to a North Carolina team that is ranked 12th in RPI and was playing a virtual home game 50 miles from its campus. Duke, meanwhile, lost to Notre Dame, which is in the top 25 in RPI, already beat the Blue Devils once and also knocked off North Carolina and Louisville on the road. Those are forgivable losses.

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Despite its stellar efficiency rating, Arizona is not generating much buzz. Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis blamed the disrespect on all three losses occurring against teams (UNLV, Arizona State, Oregon State) who won't make the NCAA tournament.

If anyone jumps into the top four, it's likely the Badgers, who possess KenPom.com's premier adjusted offense rating. They also boast star power in Frank Kaminsky, who was coy about scoreboard-watching when asked by Yahoo Sports' Kevin Kaduk.

Regardless of the committee's selections, a couple of teams will bear legitimate gripes entering the tournament.