North Carolina's Blueprint to Win the 2015 NCAA Tournament

Don't look now, but North Carolina might be heating up.

It's been a hit-and-miss kind of season for the Tar Heels, and while they will never be anyone's underdog, they might have a better chance for a deep run than anyone gave them just a few months or weeks ago.

The turnaround is accompanied by a most welcome new trait: toughness. They showed it in abundance in a win over Louisville and again by upending Virginia.

Is North Carolina a world-beater? No, it is not. Does it have a good team? Yes. Have stranger things happened than this Tar Heels team winning this season's NCAA tournament? Surely.

But the Tar Heels will need a lot of things to align, and they'll need help. Here's what needs to happen for Carolina to cut down the final net.

Maintain That Toughness

It's hard to tell what happened. Maybe just the experience afforded by a full season of play. Maybe just enough of an us-against-the-world mentality took hold in the locker room.

It doesn't matter what caused it—only that they keep it rolling.

"Teams talk about us being soft and all that kind of stuff," head coach Roy Williams said after the Virginia win, according to The Associated Press (h/t ESPN). "But I liked our toughness down the stretch yesterday [against Louisville] and today both."

Clutch offensive play, especially from point guard and team leader Marcus Paige and freshman big man Justin Jackson, have certainly been part of the equation. But team defense is really where that new toughness has emerged.

On the season, UNC allows an average of 67.8 points per game. That's 214th in the nation. That's not very good. But in its most recent 10 games, the team has given up only 64.6. That may not seem like much, but when you're in these nip-and-tuck situations, it can make all the difference.

Get Healthy

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Theo Pinson

To make a deep run at the Big Dance, you need every hand on deck.

Carolina's deck is a little less than full right now, with freshman Theo Pinson battling a foot injury and sophomore Kennedy Meeks recovering from a flu-like illness. 

Meeks returned to action against Louisville and has provided a spark but hasn't exactly been infallible since his return.

"I was tired—like 320 (pounds) tired," Meeks said after the Heels took down the Cards, per Grace Raynor of The Daily Tar Heel. "Like high school tired." 

Pinson has been sidelined since March 11.

Big bodies are an especially hot commodity come tournament time. The 6'6" Pinson and 6'9" Meeks—assuming they are able to contribute—would be welcome additions back to the rotation.

Brice Johnson Continues to Shine

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Brice Johnson hasn't always been on the Tar Heels marquee. Whether he likes it or not, he's on there now.

The 6'9" junior post player has been a bit of a shrinking violet at times during his tenure in Chapel Hill, exemplifying that lack of toughness that has plagued the entire team.

But if he exemplified that, he also helped exemplify that aforementioned turnaround.

After an angry, jacket-throwing outburst from Williams during the most recent Louisville game, something changed for Johnson.

"My manhood was definitely challenged," Johnson said after the game, per Daniel Wilco of The Daily Tar Heel. "I decided to man up and just come out and play."

The newly aggressive Johnson notched 22 points and seven boards in that contest. They'll need the Mr. Hyde to Johnson's affable (and at times passive) Dr. Jekyll if they want to succeed in the big tournament.

As Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports puts it:

"

Understandable that Williams could at times think that coaching Johnson would be the death of him. Johnson is athletic, skilled and has a friendly personality – and sometimes he can simply disappear. ... North Carolina didn't need to change personnel inside Thursday [against Louisville] to get better results. It just had to motivate the personnel it had. And if Brice Johnson stays motivated for the rest of the season, the Tar Heels will be a very tough out in this tournament and the next one.

"

Avoid Kentucky

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Though UNC is a very good team, it will have a hard time against the nation's very best. That means the Kentucky Wildcats, who defeated Carolina earlier in the season; Duke, who swept its in-state rivals in conference play; or Virginia, who would surely love to avenge that loss.

Let's face it: If North Carolina is really going to win the whole thing, it'll need to get the proverbial friendly bounce on the road to Indianapolis.

Marcus Paige Stays Hot

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Paige was ice cold—the good kind of ice cold—in the final seconds of the Virginia win.

The junior hit a big shot and then two huge free throws to salt away the upset victory. It was the latest great performance from UNC's best player: Over the last four contests, he has averaged 16.8 points per game, well over his season average of 13.6.

This one isn't exactly rocket science but is nonetheless a necessity for North Carolina. The Tar Heels will need their leading scorer and best player to stay hot and stay clutch if they want to survive and advance.