Ranking the Most Likely Cinderellas in the 2015 NCAA Tournament
It's almost like clockwork. Or maybe it is clockwork. Before the hour hand reaches midnight, there will be a belle of this March Madness ball.
Cinderella teams are tough to predict and even tougher to define. They are traditionally (though not always) a double-digit seed, but you know one when you see it: that scrappy, likable and (in retrospect) criminally underrated group who comes together, heats up at the right time and wins the hearts and minds of every neutral fan in the land.
These are the teams with a real chance to become this season's underdog darling, the little guys with the chance to don the glass slipper.
Note that we're not talking about the brand-name teams with double-digit seedings; that rules out the N.C. States and Texases of the world. We're also not talking about the smaller-market squads with powerhouse rosters. Looking at you, Gonzaga, Wichita State and Northern Iowa. You're not sneaking up on anyone anymore.
No, these are the real, honest-to-goodness Cinderella candidates—sweeping out the fireplace one moment, riding in the pumpkin coach the next, on the way to dance with Jim Nantz.
We evaluated and ranked the candidates on team performance with an emphasis on recent accomplishments, potential tournament seeding, the degree to which their tournament success would be a surprise and, of course, the chances of them winning in the tourney.
10. North Dakota State
1 of 10
Record: 23-9 (12-4 conference)
Conference: Summit League
RPI: 100
The Bison wrapped up their second straight trip to the Big Dance Tuesday when they nipped South Dakota State, 57-56, in the Summit League final.
Last season, the lads from Fargo upset No. 5 seed Oklahoma in overtime in the first round (er, technically the second round) of the tournament behind Lawrence Alexander's 28 points.
However, they are now without last season's conference player of the year Taylor Braun, who departed the program, along with a few others. And their strength of schedule is not the greatest, with a 35-point loss to Texas in the season opener representing their only try against a ranked opponent.
But they play solid defense, shoot the three reasonably well and have a bona fide star in Alexander, the Summit League Player of the Year. The scrappy Bison could give someone a scare.
9. North Florida
2 of 10
Record: 23-11 (12-2 conference)
Conference: Atlantic Sun
RPI: 165
March Madness fans know plenty about the Sunshine State, be it a big hitter like the Florida Gators or an upstart like Florida Gulf Coast.
But they don’t know North Florida, at least not yet. This is its first Big Dance appearance, following its Atlantic Sun tournament win.
But that might be about to change. The Ospreys can put the old egg into the nest, if you take my meaning. When you play North Florida, it's a pure three-point barrage: All six of its top players shoot at least 37 percent from deep.
Behind that attack, the Ospreys average 76 points and nine three-pointers made per contest (good for 24th and 12th in the nation, respectively). They parlayed some hot shooting into wins over Purdue and aforementioned conference rival Florida Gulf Coast.
They're like a lot of these potential Cinderellas, in that they live and die by one thing. They also may be facing a tall order in the tournament. But that's OK. It doesn't mean they can't shock the world and grab the national spotlight, as some of their in-state brethren have done before.
8. Coastal Carolina
3 of 10
Record: 24-9 (12-6 conference)
Conference: Big South
RPI: 126
You may remember Coastal Carolina from the 2014 tournament, when the Chanticleers nearly made history as the first No. 16 seed to win a game in the dance before Virginia finally pulled away.
Coastal Carolina returned four key players from that team and picked up right where it left off. The Chanticleers have experience, can score and, despite not having a single top player over 6'7", grab 40 rebounds per game, good for sixth in the nation.
They also have an excellent player in Warren Gillis. That never hurts. But don't take my word for it. Take it from a basketball analyst they call ESPN's Jay Bilas (via Twitter):
"Coastal Carolina's Warren Gillis is terrific," Bilas typed. "The lefty is skilled, versatile and can make a variety of challenged shots. He's good."
Methinks Gillis and company give a more ballyhooed team all it can handle—or more—for a second consecutive year.
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7. Eastern Washington
4 of 10
Record: 26-8 (14-4 conference)
Conference: Big Sky
RPI: 81
Eastern Washington lost both of the games it played this season to ranked opponents, first to SMU and then to Washington.
Good thing it's in the Big Sky Conference, which ranks 27th in conference RPI, behind powerhouse conferences like the Sun Belt and the Northeast. Going a collective 1-25 against ranked opponents will do that.
But there's still a reason the Eagles are on this list. They average 81.1 points per game at a 48.1 percent shooting clip. The linchpin is sophomore guard Tyler Harvey, who leads the entire nation with 23.1 points per game.
That's pretty flashy stuff and evidence they're a classic Cinderella candidate. The Eagles can put the ball in the hole, and if they get it rolling, they'll be a lot for anyone to handle.
6. Wyoming
5 of 10
Record: 25-9 (11-7 conference)
Conference: Mountain West
RPI: 80
The Wyoming Cowboys locked up their dance card with an impressive 45-43 defeat of San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament final.
Well, maybe "impressive" is a bit of a stretch when you only manage 45 points. But hey, they still managed more than the other guys. And that's Wyoming for you.
It's a defensive bunch, and the Cowboys do a slam-bang job. They allow a meager 56.4 points per game, which ranks them ninth in the nation. They held Colorado to 33 and stopped Southern at 39. And they held Cal to 45—sure, they lost that one 45-42, but still.
This is Wyoming's first trip to the dance in 13 years, but with that defense and six seniors on its roster led by Larry Nance Jr., it could still put a chokehold on an opponent.
5. Wofford
6 of 10
Record: 28-6 (16-2 conference)
Conference: Southern
RPI: 49
After edging Furman in the Southern Conference tourney final, Wofford won its eighth straight and 15th in its last 16. That's pretty good no matter how you slice it.
The team's RPI speaks to a schedule beyond that of a typical Southern Conference team. Wins over N.C. State and Iona speak to the level of success.
Conference player of the year Karl Cochran leads the Terriers on both ends. They prefer a methodical style that values each possession and attempts to serve as a brick wall on defense. Ask Virginia and Wisconsin whether that style can work. Or, just ask Wofford; the 59.8 points per game it allows ranks 23rd nationally in that category.
There are still several players remaining from last year's team, which also made the dance before losing to Michigan in the second round. You can't put a price on experience this time of year, and Wofford has it. Looking ahead, a No. 12 seed and one of those notorious 5-12 upsets is not at all unrealistic.
4. Davidson
7 of 10
Record: 24-7 (14-4 conference)
Conference: Atlantic 10
RPI: 29
VCU upset Davidson in the semifinals of the A-10 tourney, but the Wildcats should still comfortably make the Big Dance thanks to that sparkling RPI and previous wins over Dayton and VCU on their resume.
It's rare that a team ranked in the Top 25 is considered a Cinderella, but Davidson fits the bill (or the slipper) because, despite success in previous seasons, it is still considered an outsider on the national stage. I guess that's what happens when your tiny school only has about 1,800 undergrad students.
A Davidson run may not be as exotic as it once might have been, but a deep run would certainly be Cinderella-worthy. For much of this campaign, the Wildcats were the class of a still-underestimated but tough A-10 conference. That experience should serve them well when they face a more traditional power-conference foe in the tournament. So, too, will the 80 points they average per game, led by conference Player of the Year Tyler Kalinoski.
3. Valparaiso
8 of 10
Record: 28-5 (13-3 conference)
Conference: Horizon League
RPI: 51
I can't be the only person who thinks of dog food when I see the school nickname on those jerseys. But that's just me.
Because Valpo is anything but kibble, dog (sorry). The Crusaders delighted bubble teams everywhere by winning the Horizon League tournament as well as its regular season. No ambiguity on this one.
It's tempting to assume Valparaiso is a collection of shooters, given that it converts a crisp 38 percent of its three-point attempts, not to mention that whole Bryce Drew thing.
But its real calling card is defense. It ranks 18th nationally in points allowed (59.3 per contest) and 12th in rebound margin (7.2).
Alec Peters is the team's leading scorer and board man, but the Crusaders are for real, especially when the other guys have the ball.
2. Dayton
9 of 10
Record: 25-7 (13-5 conference)
Conference: Atlantic 10
RPI: 34
A win Sunday over VCU in the A-10 final will be a boon for the Dayton Flyers. But they should make the dance even without it.
Their Saturday defeat of a good Rhode Island team landed them in the conference tourney final, but it's their pedigree as a team that has them looking sharp. Top scorer Jordan Sibert leads a team that has been here before. Who can forget their Cinderella run to the Elite Eight last year?
They should still be considered a Cinderella candidate this season because, despite that success, the Flyers and their conference are still not viewed as a legit national player.
They're not quite as good as last season's team, at least on paper, which qualifies them as a Cinderella in my book. Serious fans may not raise an eyebrow if Dayton makes big waves again in 2015, though.
1. Stephen F. Austin
10 of 10
Record: 29-4 (17-1 conference)
Conference: Southland
RPI: 39
Stephen F. Austin is looking good for the tournament. Its RPI has it right there with the big boys in the swimming pool.
Outside of falling on their faces against Texas A&M Corpus Christi, the Lumberjacks haven't lost since Nov. 24. That kind of consistency is hard to beat.
Stephen F. Austin does it by sharing the ball—it tops the entire country with 17.8 assists per game—and then putting it in the hole. (It's ninth and fifth nationally with 79.3 points and 49.2 percent shooting per contest, respectively.)
Conference MVP Thomas Walkup is the straw that stirs the drink, but as you might expect from a team sporting those kinds of numbers, the Lumberjacks are balanced. Five players average at least eight points and 1.3 assists per game.
No matter the name on the front of its collective jersey, every team in this year's field of 68 should watch out for Stephen F. Austin.
Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com and NCAA.com. All betting odds courtesy of OddsShark.com. Information accurate as of March 14.
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