Predicting the 2009 Iowa Hawkeye Football Season: Michigan State

Michigan State football is like a case of athlete's foot; just when you think you've gotten rid of it, it comes back in an itching fury. 

Last season, Michigan State finished a game behind Ohio State and Penn State for the Big Ten title. Some think there is an outside chance of MSU equaling or bettering that accomplishment this year.

In order for Michigan State to repeat its success from last year, the Spartans are going to have to replace some key losses. They have to fill some holes on the offensive line, Brian Hoyer ran out of eligibility, and the departure of Javon Ringer leaves them with inexperience in the backfield.

The alleged quarterback controversy won't help Michigan State's cause this year, either. In the one hand, you have sophomore Kirk Cousins who is an explosive quarterback with untapped potential. In the other hand, you have Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol who served as backup to Sam Bradford and has an all-around style that should help him fit into the Big Ten.  

Some articles point to a QB rotation being a possibility, but having suffered through our quarterback situation for a few games last year, I might advise against this. While in theory a good competition helps bring out the best in some players, it will ultimately leave the team without a clear leader. This could lead to an unexpected loss or two. 

Whether someone emerges as a leader, or MSU maintains a rotation, the QBs should be able to get the job done thanks to a solid group of receivers. Wide receivers B.J. Cunningham and Blair White and tight end Charlie Gantt will catch a lot of passes this season, no matter who is throwing the ball.

On defense, Michigan State looks even more solid. They return nine of 11 starters, including preseason Defensive Player of the Year LB Greg Jones.

They also return a strong corps of defensive backs. They will, however, have to replace their defensive tackles which might leave them vulnerable to a team with a good ground game. 

Michigan State has the potential to compete for the title this year if they can figure things out in a hurry. Early road games at Notre Dame and Wisconsin will not make that easy.

So, what is this Hawkeye nerd's fearless prediction for the outcome of the game?

Iowa 14, Michigan State 10

After doing the necessary research for this post, I realized I made a mistake in my preseason prediction for Iowa's season—and Michigan State was the reason.

This is a hard-fought game for both teams, but Iowa squeaks it out in large part due to Amari Spievey.

The Hawkeye offense struggles with the Spartan defense at first, but they finally come through for a score at the end of the first half. Ricky Stanzi connects with Derrell Johnson-Koulianos for a 65-yard touchdown pass, putting Iowa down by only three at halftime, 7-10.

Michigan State comes out strong in the third quarter, marching down the field without a problem. Kirk Cousins then starts to underestimate the Norm Parker defense, and that's when Spievey makes his move.

Spievey returns an INT for a touchdown in the third quarter to put Iowa on top, where the defense makes sure they stay. 

While there are some talented players catching the ball for the Spartans, the Hawkeyes secondary wins the battle.   

Prior to digging deeper into the facts at hand for this game, I thought Michigan State would be a lot tougher for the Hawkeyes. But after looking at how Iowa's strengths and weaknesses match up to their strengths and weaknesses, I feel pretty strong about changing my mind.

I think Michigan State will end up with an 8-4 record, but I think the Hawkeyes have their number this year.

That means my overall prediction changes to 10 wins, two losses...but still a trip to the Capital One Bowl in Florida. Hey, when a nerd over-analyzes information, crazy things can happen.

Up next in the series of fearless predictions for the 2009 Iowa Football Season: Indiana.

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