March Madness 2015: Updating the Bubble as Conference Tournaments Unfold

With the major conference tournaments underway, there are a number of bubble teams that have important games to play Thursday that could determine their fates on Selection Sunday.

Each game means so much more than the last, and with some of the top seeds starting to get involved, it is the perfect time for a bubble team to try to pull a big upset that could make the difference between March Madness and the NIT.

Here are the latest updates to some of the power conference teams that are still battling it out on the bubble.

Illinois seals its fate with loss to Michigan

Kiichiro Sato/Associated Press

Sorry Illini fans, there wasn’t a great chance you were getting in anyway unless you pulled the massive upset against Wisconsin, but a 73-55 loss to a mediocre Wolverines squad eliminates all hope for Illinois.

Coming in with an RPI of just 60—and only one quality road win against Michigan State—there wasn’t a ton of hope for Illinois to make the field with an at-large bid. But Thursday’s thrashing at the hands of Michigan was the final nail in the coffin.

Losses against Miami and Indiana, both teams fighting on the bubble, weren’t good signs either for the Illini who were losers of five of their last seven games to end the season.

In another year the chances could have been better for a team that finished .500 in the Big Ten, but with a much more balanced conference and only a win against Maryland keeping Illinois on the bubble, there was no margin for error in Chicago.

Now the pressure moves on to Indiana and Purdue in the Big Ten, who are both squarely on the bubble and could use runs deep into the weekend.

Texas could solidify things with win against Iowa State

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

With bubble hopes barely holding on, Texas could not afford a loss to Texas Tech Wednesday night. The Longhorns got what they needed to advance, pulling off a 12-point victory against the Red Raiders, and are now poised to make it to the tournament.

Next up in the Big 12, the Longhorns have a matchup with No. 13 Iowa State, where a win will all but guarantee them a spot in the field.

A loss could be detrimental, with a number of bubble teams still with games to play to build their resumes, but it isn’t the worst thing in the world.

More than anything, a win against the 11th-ranked team in the RPI would give Texas another marquee win—coupled with an overtime upset of Baylor—to point to on Selection Sunday.

The Longhorns have pushed Iowa State in both matchups this season, losing by a combined 11 points, and will be hoping to get over the hump and into the next round of the Big 12 tournament. A win would also set up a semifinal game against either Oklahoma (RPI of 15) or Oklahoma State, who is also on the bubble, for Texas to take advantage of.

Miami dodges bullet, rewarded with shot at Notre Dame

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

The biggest problem the committee faces when assessing whether Miami deserves a spot in the NCAA tournament is that the Hurricanes have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde act all season.

A 28-point loss to Eastern Kentucky and a 20-point loss to Georgia Tech are two of the worst losses for any team fighting for a spot in the field, but wins at Duke and a double-overtime battle against Virginia prove Miami has the potential to beat almost anybody on the right night.

Coming off a win against Virginia Tech in their first game of the ACC tournament, the Hurricanes are now faced with the unenviable task of trying to upset Notre Dame to get into the field.

Similar to Texas, a loss needed to be avoided in the opening game against an inferior opponent, but a win against a ranked foe in game two is vital to securing a spot in the field.

In the first game between the two teams, Miami kept things close throughout, falling by just five on the road despite Jerian Grant’s 23 points and eight assists.

If an upset is in the cards Thursday evening, the Hurricanes should go ahead and pencil themselves in as an at-large team. If not, it could be a long, stressful wait until Selection Sunday.