March Madness 2015: Predicting Top Four Seeds and Championship Favorites

Thanks to the craziness of March Madness, no place in the NCAA tournament bracket can be considered safe. Still, the top teams want to do what they can to secure No. 1 seeds.

Earning a spot on the top line ensures you will avoid other elite squads until at least the Final Four. Also, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed in the tournament, while a few No. 2 seeds have lost in the first round.

There are a number of deserving candidates for the top seeds, but here are my predictions for those four spots.

Kentucky

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This is not only the best team in the country; Kentucky might be the best team college basketball has seen in years.

The Wildcats finished the regular season with a 31-0 record, becoming the first major-conference team to go undefeated since Indiana in 1975-76. Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan joked about the squad's incredible depth recently, via Paul Pabst of The Dan Patrick Show:

Although Kentucky no longer uses the straight platoon of two lineups like it did earlier in the year, there are nine players on the roster who contribute at a high level every night. Not only could most of them be stars on other teams, but they could also be stars in the NBA within the next few years.

With multiple 7-footers guarding the interior and plenty of length all over the court, this is an elite defense that will cause problems for every team it plays.

Even if the Wildcats lose in the SEC tournament, the top overall seed is theirs.

Duke

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At one point in the season, there were serious questions about Duke. That was a fun week.

The Blue Devils had two bad losses in a row in early January but have re-established themselves as one of the premier teams in college basketball since then. They ended the year with 11 wins in a row and are hoping to continue that streak in the ACC tournament.

Adam Rowe of 247Sports notes how well the team has played against top competition:

No one in the country can match Duke's selection of road wins at Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina and Louisville.

Even with a loss to Miami earlier in the year and any potential defeat in the ACC tournament, this team should get a No. 1 seed.

Virginia

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Considering Virginia has been ranked among the top teams in the country for just about the whole season, it hasn't gotten a lot of respect.

ESPN's Jay Williams doesn't consider the team a real contender for a championship:

That seems a bit harsh for a squad that won 28 of its first 29 games.

Virginia has just two losses this season. One was a come-from-behind effort against Duke, and the other came against Louisville and a game-winning jumper by Mangok Mathiang. If you're asking who that is, that's exactly the point.

The Cavaliers play incredible defense to go with their efficient offense. While they might not have elite wins, they have road victories at Maryland, North Carolina and Notre Dame as well as a blowout over VCU.

Virginia has no bad losses on its resume, so it should be safe as a No. 1 seed, even with a loss in the ACC tournament.

Villanova

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The final No. 1 seed will be the most heavily debated, as a few teams have reasonable arguments. In the end, it will likely come down to Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona and possibly Gonzaga.

While people might choose Arizona or Wisconsin based on the eye test, neither team has a better overall resume than Villanova.

Arizona has a great win over Gonzaga, but the Wildcats also have three bad losses to UNLV, Arizona State and Oregon State. Wisconsin can justify its loss to Rutgers, as Player of the Year candidate Frank Kaminsky was out, but the game happened. The Badgers also fell short in their two biggest games against Maryland and Duke.

Gonzaga simply doesn't stack up, due to a weak strength of schedule playing in the West Coast Conference.

Meanwhile, Villanova is 11-1 against teams in the RPI top 50, which is more wins than any of these other three options. Ending the regular season with 12 wins in a row also shows how dominant Villanova has been down the stretch.

Fans might pick against the Wildcats in their brackets, but they deserve a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

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