NFL Preseason: Bengals vs. Patriots Betting Odds & Pick: August 20th 2009

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1 SU & ATS) at New England Patriots (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Thursday, August 20 7:30pm EST
NEW ENGLAND -7, Total 37
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Here are some of the NFL pro football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
•CIN has lost six of its last nine pres-season games SU
•CIN has covered five of its last seven pre-season road games
•NE has lost four of its last five pre-season games SU
•NE is 0-5 ATS in its last five pre-season games
•NE has covered one of its last five pre-season home games
•NE has played eight of its last 13 pre-season games OVER the total
•NE has played five of its last six pre-season home games OVER the total

The story surrounding the Bengals involves the availability of Carson Palmer, who suffered a high ankle sprain in the pre-season opener against New Orleans and has been walking around with a boot. The Bengals are afraid to take any chances with him against the Patriots, especially with so little time between games. Cincinnati will go with second-team QB J.T. O’Sullivan, along with Carson’s younger brother Jordan. O’Sullivan was impressive in the opener, completing 9 of 11 passes for 100 yards. Chad Ochocinco had a 55-yard reception. The Bengals are still waiting for first-round draft choice Andre Smith, who is not signed.

In last week’s high-scoring win over the Eagles, Tom Brady was very sharp, completing 10 of 15 passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Will he be used extensively in this game? It seems the Pats have to make a decision as to who is going to be the backup quarterback – Andrew Walter or Kevin O’Connell.  Expect O’Connell to be taking many more snaps in this game. An encouraging thing is the New England running game, which for the pre-season should work well, because there are guys fighting for position. Don’t look for a lot of action out of aging Fred Taylor, though. They’re saving him for the regular season.

There would seem to be some concern about New England’s pre-season defense, because the Pats gave up 26 first downs and 420 net yards to Philadelphia. Those figures are very unusual for the pre-season. Maybe part of it is that these guys have gone to a lot of the 4-3 alignment on the defensive line and seem to be making that transition. People like rookie Ron Brace are going to have to step it up.

I don’t really expect New England to push it all that much with Brady. He has shown what he can do in a game setting, and his connections with Randy Moss were crisp. Remember that the Patriots are not usually hell-bent on laying it out there in the pre-season; the win over Philadelphia was not a cover, and in fact they have failed to cover any of their last five exhibition contests. This is a hefty impost, and I would be looking for Cincinnati to make a better showing after such a poor effort in the opener, even if they don’t have Palmer.

We’re taking the points with Cincinnati, the seven-point underdog in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  CINCINNATI +7 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)