2015 NCAA Tournament Teams Most Similar to Last 5 National Title Winners

It's that time of year when college basketball fans are looking for an edge to win their 2015 NCAA tournament office pools.

Often, looking at past national champions can provide clues to which teams will go deep in the next tourney. 

Over the last five years, we've witnessed four ways to win it all. There's the UConn method—one guard takes over the tournament; the Louisville formula—pressure defense leading to turnovers and easy baskets; the Kentucky theorem—speed and athleticism all over the court surrounding the most dominant big man in the country; and the Duke way—a three-headed scoring monster with great team rebounding.

Not surprisingly, it was hard to find nearly identical matches to the 68 teams in this year's Big Dance. However, I found the closest match for each of the last five national title winners with these criteria in mind:

• Similar seed/record
• Similar team and individual playing styles
• Similar team and individual stats
• Similar winning streaks/historical trends coming into tourney

2014 Connecticut: Ohio State

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UConn in 2014: 26-8, No. 7 seed (going into the NCAA tourney)

Ohio State: 23-10, No. 10 seed 

ESPN.com's Dana O'Neil recently listed several players who could be this year's Shabazz Napier. The first player she mentioned was Ohio State freshman guard D'Angelo Russell.

Though they aren't carbon copies—Russell is 6'5" while Napier is 6'1", for example—they both carried their college teams with a combination of points, rebounds and assists. 

Napier averaged 18 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists in his national title-winning senior season, and Russell is currently averaging 19.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists. 

Napier relied on Ryan Boatright, a guard who could take the point guard responsibilities for stretches. Shannon Scott, who averages 5.9 assists per game, is Russell's Boatright. 

All Ohio State needs is a wing player to have a breakout tournament like DeAndre Daniels had. Either Sam Thompson or Marc Loving—both versatile 6'7" players—could fill the Daniels role. 

For the record, I'm not picking the Buckeyes to get to the Sweet 16. Then again, I had UConn losing in the round of 32 last year, mostly because it lost by 33 to Louisville in its last regular-season game. Ohio State lost its last regular-season game by 24 to Wisconsin. 

The Buckeyes have the talent to make a deep run. Pick them at your own peril. 

Honorable Mention: Oregon

2013 Louisville: Villanova

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2013 Louisville: 29-5, No. 1 seed

Villanova: 32-2, No. 1 seed

Of the 2015 NCAA tournament teams seeded No. 3 or better, not one is remotely reminiscent of Louisville's 2013 national championship team. 

The Cardinals forced turnovers on 26.7 percent of their opponents' possessions. In contrast, Villanova forces turnovers 21 percent of the time, which is 35th in the country.

Nova also makes 9.0 three-pointers per game, whereas Louisville made 5.7 per game. 

With that out of the way, let me state my case. 

JayVaughn Pinkston and Chane Behanan have very similar playing styles. Daniel Ochefu and Gorgui Dieng both averaged 9.8 points per game and anchored their defenses. 

Though he's more selective, Darrun Hilliard has a skill set comparable to Russ Smith's. 

Nova scores 76.3 points and allows 60.9 per game. Louisville's averages were 74.3 and 58.3, respectively.

Nova ranks fourth in offense and 13th in defense in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency stats. Louisville finished fourth and third, respectively. They both won the Big East tournament. 

Their team playing styles differ, but they have enough individual style similarities and alike team stats to warrant this comparison. 

Honorable Mention: West Virginia

2012 Kentucky: Kentucky

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2012 Kentucky: 32-2, No. 1 seed

Kentucky: 34-0, No. 1 seed

It was a tough call between 2015 Kentucky and Duke as 2012 Kentucky's closest match. 2015 Kentucky's defense and depth of talent ultimately won out. 

We know Jahlil Okafor is likely to be the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft. Anthony Davis went on to be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft, of course. 

Justise Winslow is like a Michael Kidd-Gilchrist-Terrence Jones hybrid. He has Jones' lefty stroke, yet he has MKG's slashing mindset. Quinn Cook and Doron Lamb filled the same three-point shooter role.

But the similarities end there. 

Duke is 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kentucky is No. 2. The 2012 Kentucky team was No. 8. 

Arguably the biggest reason for this is rim protection. Okafor is not even in the same category as Davis was or Willie Cauley-Stein is. 

When the Wildcats go with Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles, that's similar to what it was like attempting to play against the size and athleticism of Davis, Jones and Kidd-Gilchrist.

Lastly, Devin Booker and Darius Miller both won SEC Sixth Man of the Year. 

It's only fitting that the most dominant team since the 2012 Wildcats is its closest match. 

Honorable mention: Duke

2011 UConn: Notre Dame

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2011 UConn: 26-9, No. 3 seed

Notre Dame: 29-5, No. 3 seed

Arguably the two most dynamic guards in this year's NCAA tournament are D'Angelo Russell and Jerian Grant. They have the best chance to be the next Shabazz Napier or Kemba Walker. 

Whereas Ohio State is leaking oil in March (like UConn was in 2014), Notre Dame is on fire just like UConn was heading into the 2011 Big Dance. 

The Fighting Irish won their first ACC tournament by beating Duke and North Carolina back-to-back at Greensboro Coliseum. They have a five-game winning streak with three wins over ranked opponents.

UConn won five games in five days to win the 2011 Big East tournament. The Huskies beat four ranked teams, including No. 3 Pittsburgh—sorry for the reminder, Gary McGhee.  

Cardiac Kemba finished the 2011 season averaging 23.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists. Grant is averaging 16.8 points, 6.6 assists and 3.0 rebounds. 

It's not a perfect comparison, but it'll have to do. 

Freshman Shabazz Napier was UConn's second-best playmaker with three assists per game. Demetrius Jackson fills that role for the Irish with an average of 2.9 helpers. Pat Connaughton fills the Jeremy Lamb role as a secondary scorer from the perimeter. 

The one major difference between these teams is adjusted defensive efficiency. Notre Dame ranks 112th, whereas UConn ranked 13th. 

The Irish turned up the defense in their last six games, allowing fewer than 70 points five times. They'll need that defensive execution along with a Kemba-like tournament from Grant to win it all. 

Honorable Mention: Maryland

2010 Duke: Gonzaga

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2010 Duke: 29-5, No. 1 seed

Gonzaga: 32-2, No. 2 seed

Even as a No. 1 seed, the Blue Devils snuck up on me in 2010. They didn't have high-flying athletes, such as Kentucky's John Wall and Syracuse's Wesley Johnson. They won with great rebounding, shooting and team defense. 

Gonzaga doesn't wow you with its athleticism, either. The Bulldogs are led by versatile forward Kyle Wiltjer and point guard Kevin Pangos. Wiltjer, with his ability to make perimeter shots, drive and post up, is similar to Kyle Singler. Pangos and Jon Scheyer are both floor generals and selective marksmen. 

Gonzaga is 14th in rebounding rate (54.9 percent). Duke was also 14th (54.2 percent). Duke finished the season first in adjusted offensive efficiency. Gonzaga is currently sixth. 

One minor difference is Duke had another big-time scorer at shooting guard in Nolan Smith. Gonzaga doesn't have another go-to scorer, but it scores just fine with its balanced offense. 

The Bulldogs haven't made the Sweet 16 since 2009. Going into the 2010 tournament, Duke hadn't made it out of the Sweet 16 since 2004. 

Duke snapped its streak of early exits, and I expect Gonzaga will too. 

Honorable Mention: Wisconsin

Could a New Trend Appear?

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Neither Arizona nor Virginia was an honorable mention on any slide.

Both of these teams grind it out with great defense, yet neither has a go-to offensive player in crunch time.

You have to go back to Kansas in 2008 for a similar national title-winning team. Its leading scorer was Brandon Rush, who averaged 13.3 points per game.

But even the Jayhawks comparison may be stretching it, as they were No. 2 in adjusted offensive efficiency and shot 50.8 percent as a team—marks far better than the Cavaliers' and Wildcats'.

Between Virginia and Arizona, my choice is UA to make a deep run. The Wildcats have better point guard play with T.J. McConnell, but they also have an offensive wild card in Stanley Johnson.

He may be the wild card of the whole NCAA tournament. If he becomes a go-to scorer, the Wildcats have what it takes to win it all. Even if he doesn’t, Arizona is very dangerous, as it is second in Pomeroy's team rating.

Team rebounding and turnover rates via TeamRankings.com. Adjusted efficiency stats per KenPom.com.

Joseph Akeley is a Bleacher Report featured columnist. Follow Jakeley_BR on Twitter.