Big Ten Tournament 2015: Predictions and Championship Odds for Every Team
Hello. Welcome to March Madness. My name is Scott, and I'll be your server today.
We've got some exciting seasonal specials right now. Let me direct your attention to this area of the menu, the area that which we call, the appetizers?
Lots of toothsome pairings in that area. Very tasty. Very toothsome. Some of the juiciest selections you'll find, as we like to say. This one, for example, is sourced by a little outfit known as the Big Ten.
That's right. Aw yeah. It's conference tournament time again. And for people who really dig college basketball, doing March Madness without the conference tournaments is like skipping the Southwestern black bean egg rolls or soup.
The Big Ten tourney is loaded with drama the way an order of Wisconsin potato skins is loaded with sour cream and crumbled bratwurst. I'm going to drop this food metaphor now. Eleven of the conference's 14 units managed winning records this season, with eight coming out on the plus side in conference play. Though a few other conferences are a little more impressive, or at least a little heavier at the top, the Big Ten is powered by some elite programs and players up and down those benches.
The tournament—which begins Wednesday, March 11 and runs through Sunday, March 15—will offer plenty of stakes for the participants. Seven teams are currently projected to make the Big Dance, with a few more effervescing upward toward the field.
This is to say nothing of all the deep-seated regional rivalries to revisit, and which in some cases won't renew again until next year. In other cases, this is the postseason for a team and its fans.
If you're holding out for the big entree, you're undermining your experience. Let the Big Ten tournament whet your appetite. Need a primer? Here are odds and predictions for each team in the conference.
Bon appetit.
No. 14 Rutgers
1 of 14
Odds: 500-1
Overall record: 10-21
Big Ten record: 2-16
The Scarlet Knights have one thing on which to hang their crimson helms: That Jan. 11 win over Wisconsin.
But that wasn't exactly the momentum builder they wanted it to be. Since then they've dropped a heroic 13 straight by an average of 14 points. That includes a 79-51 loss at Penn State and a putrid 84-54 home loss to Indiana.
Not what you want to see from Eddie Jordan and company in the first Big Ten season for Rutgers, which last enjoyed a winning season back in 2005-2006. The arduous process of reconstructing this program continues unabated.
No. 13 Penn State
2 of 14
Odds: 200-1
Overall record: 16-15
Big Ten record: 4-14
Guess who led the Big Ten in scoring this regular season. If you said Frank Kaminsky, D'Angelo Russell or Melo Trimble, you are incorrect.
It was Penn State senior guard D.J. Newbill, who ended the regular-season campaign averaging 20.7 points per contest.
Kind of a shame that one of the conference's best players toiled in relative anonymity for a shallow Nittany Lions club. Their first-round draw in the tournament—Nebraska—should have enough firepower to beat them.
No. 12 Northwestern
3 of 14
Odds: 200-1
Overall record: 15-16
Big Ten record: 6-12
Northwestern is a heck of a lot better than this record indicates.
The Wildcats would be much more in the thick of this discourse had the ball bounced their way just a few more times than it did. And that probably applies in a literal sense; they've lost way more than their fair share of nail-biters. At one stretch in January, they lost to Michigan by two, Ohio State by two and Maryland by one. They had better luck at the end of the regular season, when they won five of their final seven.
As it is, they could be a live dog in this tournament, the proverbial group no one's really pumped to play. We'll see if they can build any postseason momentum when they take on Indiana.
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No. 11 Michigan
4 of 14
Odds: 66-1
Overall record: 15-15
Big Ten record: 8-10
Not a lot of mystery in this one. Michigan can still beat somebody, but are nowhere near the same without Caris LeVert.
As you know, LeVert—the Wolverines' leading scorer, leading rebounder and second-leading assist man—was lost for the season after injuring his foot on Jan. 17. At that moment, Michigan was a decent-if-unspectacular 11-7. Since that time, they are a neither decent nor spectacular 4-8, with two of those wins coming over lowly Rutgers.
In other words, it's not looking too good right now for the lads from Ann Arbor.
No. 10 Nebraska
5 of 14
Odds: 200-1
Overall record: 13-17
Big Ten record: 5-13
No two ways about it: It's been a disappointing basketball season out in Nebraska.
The Cornhuskers were selected to finish fifth in the Big Ten preseason poll. Instead, here they are at the bottom, with nonconference losses to teams like Hawaii and the immortal University of the Incarnate Word(!) on their resume.
The whole thing came to a head in late February, when coach Tim Miles banned his players from their own locker room.
“My only regret, is opening my big mouth. I was just PO’d enough that I brought it up,” Miles said of the move after it generated headlines. “I’m like my team — irrational and showed no patience.”
The strong motivational ploy must have worked to a tee, as the team has lost eight of its games since then. Or at least it would have worked, if it wasn't for The News Media, you know, informing people about the losses and so on.
Here's guessing The News Media continues to work its special brand of dark magic on Miles and his team when they beat Penn State but then lose to Iowa. Well, the first one will be the team's doing. Second one: all media's fault.
No. 9 Minnesota
6 of 14
Odds: 33-1
Overall record: 17-14
Big Ten record: 6-12
The Golden Gophers gorged themselves on cupcakes to pad their midsections for the long winter. But despite this, it looks like they may not emerge from hibernation in time for all the spring festivities.
Sad story for the Gophers. They're so furry and diggy. But that's life, as you know. To paraphrase the famous Dylan Thomas poem, you must resign yourself to the dying of the light. What you want to do is go as quietly as you can into that good night. At least until Nate Mason gets a little older.
As for this tournament, they should beat Rutgers, but that's about it.
No. 8 Illinois
7 of 14
Odds: 16-1
Overall record: 19-12
Big Ten record: 9-9
Say hello to your official 2014-15 Big Ten conference gatekeeper. The Illini did pretty much exactly what they were supposed to do this season.
They were picked before the season to finish sixth in the conference. They finished eighth. They beat the teams below them. They lost to the teams above them. They upset Maryland in one game, then got upset by Nebraska the next. You see how it all balances out for them? They're the Jerry Seinfeld of this conference. Even freakin' Steven.
No reason to think that trend won't hold in the tourney. By that logic, they'll beat Michigan and then serve as a placeholder for Wisconsin.
No. 7 Indiana
8 of 14
Odds: 20-1
Overall record: 19-12
Big Ten record: 9-9
Indiana is not a flawless team. They are not always a pretty team. But they are scrappy, and they are some kind of fun to watch.
I like them to make a little noise in this tournament. If they can get rolling behind the one-two punch of junior Yogi Ferrell and freshman James Blackmon, Jr., anything can happen. That's especially true given that the latest bracketology projections have them about as bubbly as bubbly can be. They'll need a strong showing to ensure a spot in the Big Dance, and their dynamic duo can give them one.
No. 6 Purdue
9 of 14
Odds: 14-1
Overall record: 20-11
Big Ten record: 12-6
Purdue has quietly put together a pretty solid season. They've far exceeded preseason expectations (beat writers projected them to finish 11th in the conference) and have played their way onto the bubble by chopping down the likes of Ohio State, Indiana and BYU.
Still, their strength of schedule leaves something to be desired (they currently sit 56th nationally in RPI, good for only seventh among Big Ten teams), so a nice conference tourney run could help them.
We'll see when they take on Iowa in the quarters.
No. 5 Iowa
10 of 14
Odds: 9-1
Overall record: 21-10
Big Ten record: 12-6
Iowa just keeps rolling along. Behind the steady frontcourt of Aaron White, Jarrod Uthoff and the underrated (if controversial at times) Adam Woodbury, the Hawkeyes never appear to get too low. The only time they lost more than two in a row at any point was when they sandwiched a close road loss at Purdue inside two home-and-home losses to league-best Wisconsin.
Besides that, the Hawkeyes play equally well at home and on the road, as evidenced by the fact that they're 6-3 in each situation. That's pretty impressive over the course of 31 games. And they're still going in the right direction, ending the regular season on a six-game winning streak.
All to say, this isn't a team that's going to beat itself. They are a long team, and they are going to play good defense. That should spell success against Purdue.
"Defense is all about energy and concentration," Uthoff recently told The Des Moines Register's Rick Brown. "We're playing as a team."
No. 4 Ohio State
11 of 14
Odds: 7-2
Overall record: 22-9
Big Ten record: 11-7
Not to discount the contributions of others, but let's be honest: As D'Angelo Russell goes, so go the Ohio State Buckeyes.
In their last four contests, in which they finished 3-1, the all-nation point guard averaged 21 points and four assists. But with Ohio State safely ensconced in the Big Dance field, will Thad Matta pump the brakes on his star freshman? My hunch says he will make the long play, and that means a loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals.
No. 3 Michigan State
12 of 14
Odds: 7-1
Overall record: 21-10
Big Ten record: 12-6
It's nothing but a testament to Michigan State's consistent greatness under Tom Izzo that this kind of output constitutes a down year.
But down it is, at least according to the numbers. They've already lost more games this season than in any of the past three. But true to the program's blue-collar form, the team has gotten off the ropes every time they've found themselves there.
It's evidenced in those big-boy stats, like rebounding margin (7.1, 15th-best in the nation). One of their leaders, senior Branden Dawson, leads the Big Ten in overall rebounding (9.3 per game) and offensive rebounding (3.0 per contest). Three Spartans rank in the top 20 in the conference for their glass-cleaning abilities.
That's the sign of a balanced club coming into the postseason. As another example, four players average at least nine points per game. The Spartans know how to win, and they'll do so against Ohio State.
No. 2 Maryland
13 of 14
Odds: 9-1
Overall record: 26-5
Big Ten record: 14-4
Big Ten or nationwide, the Terps are one of this season's biggest surprises. They were picked before the season to finish eighth in their first season in this conference, and here they are, comfortably positioned in second.
The key to the turnaround is freshman point guard Melo Trimble, easily the best non-Russell point guard in the Big Ten. But Maryland is far from a one-man gang; guard Dez Wells and hybrid forward Jake Layman ensure the Terps are a nightmarish matchup for any team. Just ask Wisconsin about that.
Or you can ask ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, one of the foremost basketball analysts in the United States, who said after the Wisconsin win (via The Baltimore Sun's Don Markus):
"For a team that has played really well during the course of the year, not that they didn't believe [in themselves] before, but they can really believe now that there's nobody out there that they can't beat. That doesn't mean there's not a long list of teams that can beat Maryland. There is. [But] they can compete with anybody.
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Maryland is also playing its best basketball of the season right now, riding a seven-game win streak that includes that massive home win over the Badgers.
Did they peak too soon? Hard to tell. But they'll be well-rested after their tournament double-bye. And recent history shows that will be bad news for Michigan State, a team they've already beaten twice this season. Maryland is definitely undervalued here.
No. 1 Wisconsin
14 of 14
Odds: 10-11
Overall record: 28-3
Big Ten record: 16-2
Surprise.
Wisconsin has been formidable all year behind a balanced squad led by National Player of the Year favorite Frank Kaminsky.
Maryland showed that the Badgers are beatable, but that doesn't mean they're suddenly easy pickings. They won the Big Ten regular-season title outright for a reason, and they're the favorites in this tournament for a reason. Sam Dekker; Nigel Hayes; it's a well-oiled machine.
They'll show it all by gaining revenge against the Terps in the final. They'll be screwing down on defense, exploiting an exploitable frontcourt, taking the Big Ten tournament crown, and nabbing themselves a very high seed in the biggest of all the basketball dances.
Statistics via ESPN.com and accurate as of March 8. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark. Bracket courtesy of BTN.com.
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