ACC Tournament 2015: Predictions and Championship Odds for Every Team

Every conference tournament has its own drama and level of excitement, but few can compare to what the ACC brings to the table in March.

This year's 14-team event in Greensboro, North Carolina, figures to be as good as ever, especially with a pair of teams at the top fighting for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, while several in the middle try to avoid having their bubbles burst. Action begins Tuesday with two opening-round games and concludes Saturday with the championship, and ESPN or ESPN2 is broadcasting every game live.

To help get you primed for this tournament, we've broken down the chances of every team to win the title. Top-seeded Virginia is looking to be the first team other than Duke or North Carolina to win consecutive tourneys since Wake Forest in 1995-96.

No. 14 Virginia Tech

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Odds: 100-1

First matchup: No. 11 Wake Forest (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Virginia Tech (10-21, 2-16) finished in last place for the third straight year, though its overall record was one win better than last season. Its seed is also slightly better but only because Syracuse wasn't eligible for this season's ACC tournament.

First-year coach Buzz Williams didn't have a lot to work with, and his Hokies haven't won away from Blacksburg since beating Miami (Ohio) in Cancun just before Thanksgiving.

The Hokies have lost seven straight, only one of which was by single digits. If this undermanned team was to advance past the first round—which hasn't happened since 2012—it would be a major shock.

No. 13 Georgia Tech

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Odds: 75-1

First matchup: vs. No. 12 Boston College (Tuesday, 1 p.m. ET)

Georgia Tech (12-18, 3-15) might be the biggest hard-luck team in the ACC, as its 3-15 conference record doesn't indicate how competitive the Yellow Jackets have played this season. Eleven league losses have been by seven points or fewer, including a one-point home loss to Louisville on Feb. 23 and a six-point loss at Duke in early February.

But Tech has also been torched a few times recently, losing to North Carolina twice in the final two weeks of the regular season by a combined 61 points.

The Jackets have shown the ability to play good teams (other than UNC) closely, but they cannot finish the job. That could make an upset or two possible in the ACC tournament, but it also means they'll probably end up losing their first game to a Boston College team that has already beaten them at home.

No. 11 Wake Forest

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Odds: 60-1

First matchup: vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)

Wake Forest (13-18, 5-13) showed competitiveness at times under first-year coach Danny Manning, particularly over the final month when it knocked off a trio of ACC bubble teams at home. But the Demon Deacons lost by 18 at Boston College in their regular-season finale, making them 2-2 against the other teams playing on Tuesday.

What could make Wake at least a danger in the early days, though, is that it has wins over both its first-round opponent and the team it would meet on Wednesday, No. 6 Miami. But the Deacons were 2-11 away from home, and most of those road games were major blowout losses.

Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre has erupted for some big games, but he can't do it all by himself.

No. 12 Boston College

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Odds: 50-1

First matchup: vs. No. 13 Georgia Tech (Tuesday, 1 p.m. ET)

Boston College (12-18, 4-14) ended its regular season on a high note with three straight victories, including Saturday's 18-point win over Wake Forest. The Eagles' only other conference win came in mid-January, at first-round opponent Georgia Tech.

First-year coach Jim Christian kept his team competitive throughout the ACC slate, as the Eagles never lost by more than 17 points, though only the Feb. 28 win over North Carolina State saw any headway made against a team from the top half of the standings. Olivier Hanlan has been their best player, but the emergence of Southern Mississippi transfer Aaron Brown has given them a second option that wasn't there last season.

Getting past the first round is probably the ceiling for this team, but it's also not crazy to think Boston College could also knock off an uncertain North Carolina in the second round and make a surprise run to the quarterfinals.

No. 10 Pittsburgh

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Odds: 35-1

First matchup: No. 7 North Carolina State (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)

Pittsburgh (19-13, 8-10) enters the ACC tournament riding its second three-game losing streak of the season, moving onto the bubble. A deep run this week is imperative to avoid missing the NCAA tourney for the second time in the past four years.

The Panthers only allow 65.3 points per game, but that's the second-highest total allowed in coach Jamie Dixon's 12-year tenure, per Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. 

No. 9 Clemson

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Odds: 30-1

First matchup: vs. No. 8 Florida State (Wednesday, noon ET)

Clemson (16-14, 8-10) has known for a while that it doesn't have the resume to make the NCAA tournament as an at-large team, and the Tigers have backed that situation up by failing to beat any potential tourney teams since late January. It will all come down to winning the ACC tournament, something it's never done before.

Losers of six of their last eight, the Tigers have only topped 70 points in eight games this season, and their 40.9 percent field-goal rate is second-worst in the conference.

Clemson has split its games this season with Florida State, each winning on the other's court, but the lack of any momentum down the stretch doesn't make this team seem capable of doing more than winning its opening matchup.

No. 8 Florida State

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Odds: 25-1

First matchup: vs. No. 9 Clemson (Wednesday, noon ET)

Florida State (16-15, 8-10) ended a three-game losing streak by knocking off Pittsburgh at home on Saturday for only its sixth victory this season against a team with a winning record. It's been a major underachievement year for the Seminoles, with injuries and dismissals mucking up what coach Leonard Hamilton had planned.

Freshman guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes has done his best to hold down the fort with some one-man heroics, such as when he scored 30 points in the final four minutes, 38 seconds of a loss at Miami, but besides him little else has been promising for FSU.

FSU does have the capability to play spoiler if it can get past a Clemson team it split with this season. The Seminoles led for much of their game last month at Virginia, though when Cavaliers guard London Perrantes went down with a broken nose and concussion, that actually spelled the beginning of the end for FSU's chance to win.

No. 6 Miami (Florida)

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Odds: 20-1

First matchup: No. 11 Wake Forest/No. 14 Virginia Tech winner (Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET)

Miami (20-11, 10-8) has the typical bubble-team resume with big wins at Duke and Florida and bad losses versus Eastern Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Based on just this, the Hurricanes could end up in the Big Dance or missing it for the second year in a row, making how they fare in the ACC tournament the likely tipping point in either direction.

Just winning the first game against a team it should beat (though it lost at Wake Forest on Feb. 11) won't do it, though. Miami needs to make a splash and reach the semifinals to ensure an NCAA bid, which would mean having to knock off Notre Dame, which seems unlikely but not impossible based on how this team has performed.

Impact transfers Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan have paced Miami this season, but they've also both disappeared far too often. This uncertainty makes expecting the Hurricanes to take care of business and lock up an NCAA bid a risky move.

No. 7 North Carolina State

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Odds: 15-1

First matchup: vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)

North Carolina State (19-12, 10-8) is another ACC bubble team that has to produce in the conference tournament to improve its chances of making the NCAA field. The Wolfpack have the results that make it seem possible they could crash the party in Greensboro, but they also have the kind of losses that lead one to believe they won't get past Wednesday.

NC State has three wins against higher-seeded teams (beating Louisville and North Carolina on the road and at home against Duke) but also three losses to lower-seeded ACC foes (including Boston College and Wake Forest). Even its most recent stretch has shown this inconsistency, with five victories highlighted by winning in Chapel Hill and Louisville but also losing badly in Chestnut Hill.

Junior guard Trevor Lacey will be NC State's make-or-break player, as he's been all season. The Alabama transfer is not afraid to take a shot, averaging nearly 13 per game in ACC play, but he'll need to shoot better than his 44.2 percent clip for that to make a difference.

No. 5 North Carolina

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Odds: 12-1

First matchup: No. 12 Boston College/No. 13 Georgia Tech winner (Wednesday, 2 p.m. ET)

North Carolina (21-10, 11-7) went 4-6 down the stretch to finish outside the top three spots for the first time since 2010. The Tar Heels lost three of their last four home games, with turnovers being their biggest culprit. They turned it over 16 times in Saturday's 84-77 loss to Duke (11 times in the second half), which led to 21 points for the Blue Devils.

"Those have been problematic throughout the season for UNC," wrote Andrew Carter of The Charlotte Observer.

UNC hasn't managed to find a consistent go-to scorer, with Marcus Paige struggling most of the season with his shot. Its hoped-for advantage inside hasn't always been there, either, and defensive breakdowns have also cost the Tar Heels in several games.

But this team is talented enough to make noise, and it split games with fourth-seeded Louisville and led top-seeded Virginia at halftime. UNC could easily win it all or end up falling in the quarterfinals like last year.

No. 4 Louisville

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Odds: 10-1

First matchup: No. 5 North Carolina-No. 12 Boston College/No. 13 Georgia Tech winner (Thursday, 2 p.m. ET)

Louisville (24-6, 12-6) secured the much-desired double-bye into the quarterfinals by knocking off regular-season champion Virginia in Saturday's finale, winning on a last-second shot by reserve forward Mangok Mathiang. The Cardinals had just lost at home to Notre Dame three days before, but they're 3-1 since senior guard Chris Jones' dismissal.

The Cardinals have been hot-and-cold on both ends of the court this season, sometimes playing lockdown defense but occasionally looking uninterested in that area, while their offense depends on whether guard Terry Rozier is hitting his shots and if forward Montrezl Harrell is being assertive in the paint.

Coach Rick Pitino has said he believes his team has reached its potential, especially now that freshman guard Quentin Snider has settled into his role in the starting lineup.

"Now, can we make a run? All depends on the matchups," Pitino said after Saturday's win, per Jeff Greer of The (Louisville) Courier-Journal.

No. 3 Notre Dame

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Odds: 8-1

First matchup: No. 6 Miami-No. 11 Wake Forest/No. 14 Virginia Tech winner (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)

Notre Dame (26-5, 14-4) has made the biggest year-to-year leap of any team in the ACC this season, going from 13th place last season to third. The return of senior guard Jerian Grant, who missed all of the conference schedule in 2013-14 because of an academic suspension, has been the biggest reason for that turnaround, but the Fighting Irish are also vastly improved as a group because of their shooting.

The Irish shot 51 percent this season, tops in the ACC and second-best in Division I. Their top seven players all shoot 51.9 percent or better, and the recent emergence of freshman forward Bonzie Colson has added frontcourt depth and explosiveness off the bench.

Notre Dame remains a suspect defensive team, and its offense has had stretches of disappearing in the past six weeks, but with its four-guard lineup it also presents one of the toughest matchups in the league. A 3-2 record against the other top seeds also gives the Irish a good shot to challenge for the tournament title.

No. 1 Virginia

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Odds: 4-1

First matchup: No. 8 Clemson/No. 9 Florida State winner (Thursday, noon ET)

Virginia (28-2, 16-2) won its second straight regular-season ACC title, and just like last season the Cavaliers head into the conference tournament coming off a road loss. Last year it was at Maryland; this time around it was in the final seconds at Louisville, a game the Cavaliers trailed big early and then battled back to lead for much of the second half.

The top defensive team in the conference, Virginia stifles everyone's offensive game plan and forces opponents into mistakes and contested shots. This has paid off in most cases, with only Duke showing the ability to overcome that approach.

Virginia was hoping to get guard Justin Anderson back for the ACC tournament after he'd missed the final eight regular-season games with a broken finger, but then the junior underwent an emergency appendectomy last week, and his status for the ACC tournament is uncertain. Though the Cavs have gone 7-1 without him and also weathered the loss of point guard London Perrantes for one game after he suffered a concussion and broke his nose, their performances have been trending downward.

The Cavs aren't heading into the postseason playing their best basketball, and with their hold on a No. 1 NCAA tournament seed also becoming tenuous, it will be hard to repeat as ACC champs.

No. 2 Duke

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Odds: 3-1

First matchup: No. 7 North Carolina State/No. 10 Pittsburgh winner (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)

Duke (28-13, 15-3) is the hottest team in the conference heading into the ACC tourney, winning 11 straight that includes road victories over Virginia and North Carolina and a 30-point home win over Notre Dame. The Blue Devils have faced challenges during that run, both in terms of opponents and with roster attrition because of ankle injuries, but have weathered every storm.

An improved emphasis on defense has been paired with strong-as-ever offensive balance, with freshman center Jahlil Okafor no longer serving as the do-everything player he seemed to try to be for most of the ACC schedule. Guards Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook have been the true indispensable players, with Jones making a case for being the Blue Devils' best freshman with how he's been able to take over games in the final minutes.

Duke has as thin a rotation as anyone in the league, but that hasn't come back to bite the team yet. It won't during the ACC tourney either, as the only thing that seems to be a potential pitfall will be a combination of cold shooting and a return to poor defensive play.

Note: Records and statistics are through games on Saturday, March 7. 

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.