Aldon Smith's Contract Restructure Shows Firm Belief in Self on and off Field

NFL contracts are often stuffed with fluff. More than that monstrous Homer Simpson you won at the county fair last fall while trying to impress a special someone.

They come with empty promises of a base salary guaranteed at a certain date and incentives that are impossible to reach. They offer limited security and the reality that years can be ripped up at any time with little cost to a team if the guaranteed money has run dry.

The heart of every contract and a player’s true value is found in that guaranteed money. There’s complex language to sift through and a structure to decipher, but each contract returns to this question: How much guaranteed money did you get?

With San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Aldon Smith we’re now asking a different question: Why would you ever willingly give up guaranteed money?

The answer is likely simple, and it could begin with removing the word “willingly."

Smith’s fifth-year option was picked up in 2014, making 2015 effectively the final year of his rookie contract. He’s scheduled to be paid a base salary of $9.754 million, which would have become fully guaranteed on March 10 when the new league year begins.

But now that won’t happen after a gesture from Smith that doubles as goodwill and a bet on himself. Instead of having every cent of a salary that makes him the fifth-highest paid 3-4 outside linebacker in 2015 guaranteed, Smith has agreed to wipe away much of the money he was set to happily pocket.

As first reported by CSN Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco Thursday night, Smith will now be paid through a series of roster bonuses, eliminating the security of fully guaranteed money. He'll get about $2 million before the 2015 season kicks off, then the remainder of his salary will trickle in through monthly money dumps.

Apparently we should believe this was Smith’s idea and only Smith’s idea. That is about as believable as Pinocchio during his time giving motivational speeches.

Smith’s history of off-field buffoonery is lengthy. He’s had multiple DUIs, was charged with three felony counts of illegal weapon possession (later dropped to misdemeanors) and earned another arrest by being an obnoxious fool around airport security. As a result, he missed nine games in 2014 due to a suspension, in addition to another five in 2013 while being treated for alcohol abuse.

That’s a total of four arrests since 2012. If you ask Smith’s agent Doug Hendrickson, he’ll tell you his client is taking responsibility for his behavior and forcing himself to remain on the 49ers’ roster if he wants to collect all of his 2015 salary.

“This is a situation where Aldon Smith has been his own worst enemy,” Hendrickson told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Eric Branch. “He knows it. He admits it. He’s building up trust with them and he’s been doing a great job since last season.”

That sounds rosy, and it paints Smith as a swell gentleman who’s willing to make a donation, possibly throwing away his money. It also stinks of manipulated optics and a forced hand.

Saying "nah, I'm good" to guaranteed money isn’t a wise career move for any NFL player, regardless of their circumstances. The short-term risk for Smith in 2015 is now monumental.

He could be released at no cost (or little cost, depending on the timing) after even the most minor behavioral misstep. Or if his performance spirals he could also hit the streets with no financial penalty for the 49ers.

From the player’s perspective, the process of negotiating any NFL contract revolves around a search for security. So forgive me for being a little skeptical about Smith voluntarily sacrificing nearly all the concrete money he was owed.

The cap-crunched 49ers (a team with only $6.5 million to play with heading into free agency) may have told Smith his behavioral issues don’t warrant a full commitment for another season. They could have threatened to cut the 25-year-old if he didn’t agree to a structure that erases guarantees, and then used the freed-up funds to pursue one of the top outside linebackers on the open market, though his agent denied any such conversation took place.

After all, about a year ago at this time there were legitimate questions about Smith’s fifth-year option getting picked up and whether or not he’d be released.

Those dots are easy to connect because Smith gains little from his good-faith posturing. The off-field leash is surely short now, too, and attached to a choke collar.

But I'm admittedly speculating. If Smith is indeed truly being charitable, he’s doing more than the proverbial olive-branch extension. He’s cutting down an entire forest worth of branches.

When he’s on the field and not somewhere else where bad decisions are happening, Smith is among the NFL’s premier edge-rushers. His speed to round the corner is nearly unmatched throughout the league, along with his strength to toss aside offensive tackles.

Since 2011 only seven pass-rushers have recorded more sacks than Smith. That sounds impressive but not overwhelming, until you compare Smith’s playing time and his per-game sack pace.

Pass rusher	Sacks	Sacks per game
J.J. Watt	57	0.89
Jared Allen	51	0.81
Von Miller	49	0.86
Justin Houston	48.5	0.82
Elvis Dumervil	47	0.77
DeMarcus Ware	47	0.77
Robert Quinn	45	0.71
Aldon Smith	44	0.88

Normally Houston Texans All-Universe defensive end J.J. Watt is on a secluded private island when we’re discussing any pass-rushing metric, one complete with drinks sipped lavishly from coconuts. Yet there’s Smith, only a tick behind him in sacks per game.

Smith has played in only six regular-season games in which he didn’t record a sack (44 over 50 games). In 2013 he still finished in the top 10 among 3-4 outside linebackers in total pressures with 55, according to Pro Football Focus, even while sitting for five games. And during his last full 16-game season in 2012 Smith led his position peers in sacks (19.5), finished tied for first in quarterback hits (13) and second in hurries (37), all per PFF.

When his head is aligned correctly Smith can be a generational talent, constantly causing a disruption and camping in the opposition’s backfield. Even with his off-field misdeeds, it’s likely Smith would have been paid at worst the equivalent of his current 2015 salary had the 49ers released him.

The defining difference between Smith’s pay structure now and the hypothetical contract he could have received as a free agent brings us back to a baffling decision.

A lack of guaranteed money has turned Smith’s short-term future into the roulette ball bouncing around as anxious eyes wait. He’s confident his personal problems will become faded memories, he’ll remain healthy and his high-level production won’t suddenly fall through the floor.

He’s hoping for perfection while shoving all of his chips onto that shiny green zero, seeking a massive payday next offseason after earning back trust through charity.

Math says the probability of that outcome is low. And for Smith, recent history says the same thing.