SEC Tournament 2015: Predictions and Championship Odds for Every Team
The SEC tournament will be the most interesting tournament to watch, though it will be far from the most competitive.
Of course people will tune in for two reasons, and they’re really just two reasons opposite each other on the same thematic coin: Will Kentucky finish the season unbeaten? Who will beat Kentucky?
That’s it.
So the SEC tournament is an exercise in futility for many of these teams. A few have come close to knocking off Kentucky, but often times Kentucky faces that team’s best game of the year.
"Our biggest opponent: ourselves," head coach John Calipari said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "At Kentucky, we are competing against ourselves every day. We can't let the strain and spotlight of this program affect you. We are the place to help you achieve your dreams. We don't just play college basketball, we are college basketball. As you know, we are everyone's Super Bowl."
We are college basketball? Oh, boy.
Here they stand at 31-0, the heavy favorites to win this tournament and to win the entire rave that is the Big Dance.
Let’s see how the SEC tournament shakes out.
No. 14: Missouri
1 of 14
Odds: 100-1
Regular-Season Recon
Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com sums up Missouri basketball by tweeting, “We should start a Kickstarter for charity: If we raise enough money, I’ll watch all 40 minutes of today’s Missouri-Mississippi State game.”
Amazingly for Missouri, it beat LSU 74-67 in overtime back on Jan. 8. It followed that win by losing its next 13 games in a row. That's going from cat to kitten.
Its other two wins came against Florida and Auburn.
Conference Tournament Outlook
Without getting snarky or disrespectful, Missouri has a chance against South Carolina in its first game.
The Tigers lost by just five points back on Feb. 10.
No. 13: Auburn
2 of 14
Odds: 90-1
Regular-Season Recon
Bruce Pearl’s first year at Auburn didn’t go particularly well. His team lost eight of its final nine games. At this point, they must want this season to end.
A bright spot for these Tigers was KT Harrell. The 6’4” senior averaged 18.1 points per game this season, and he’ll need to carry this team in the game against Mississippi State if Pearl and Co. want to advance.
Conference Tournament Outlook
Not very good here.
Auburn lost to Mississippi State earlier in the year, a game where Harrell drained 22 points on 8-of-15 shooting.
Going out with some pride is Auburn's best shot at declawing those Bulldogs.
No. 12: Mississippi State
3 of 14
Odds: 70-1
Regular-Season Recon
Look at that schedule and you’ll see a 73-67 win over LSU. It’s going to have to hang its hat on that win, because there isn’t much else that curries favor.
Fred Thomas was one of those bright spots for the Bulldogs in that game. He scored 18 points in the win.
"Obviously, that's a great win for our guys and the program," MSU coach Rick Ray said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "There's no question in my mind that LSU is a NCAA tournament team and they have some guys that are going to be playing in the NBA. I think they're probably the second most talented team in the SEC."
Conference Tournament Outlook
The Bulldogs get Auburn, a team they handled early in conference play.
MSU turns to Craig Sword and Gavin Ware for offense. A win against Auburn in the tournament sends MSU against Texas A&M, a team MSU lost to by four points back in January.
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No. 11: South Carolina
4 of 14
Odds: 60-1
Regular-Season Recon
South Carolina was forecasted to do far better this year in the SEC. That never matriculated.
Late in the season, things got ugly in a blowout loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks lost by 34 points. Since that loss, South Carolina is 3-3 and has been a far more competitive team in its losses.
A great nonconference win over No. 9 Iowa State seemed to indicate promising things in the SEC. Losses to Tennessee, Alabama and Vanderbilt snuffed out South Carolina’s fire.
Conference Tournament Outlook
The good news for South Carolina? It gets Missouri in its first game.
South Carolina beat Missouri by five back on Feb. 7. Sindarius Thornwell stepped up big in that game, and that was an impression not lost on head coach Frank Martin.
“I've been looking for someone to step up and take ownership,” Martin said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com).
No. 10: Tennessee
5 of 14
Odds: 60-1
Regular-Season Recon
Tennessee caps off the bottom third of the SEC.
Early on in the season, things must have looked promising in Knoxville. The Vols beat No. 15 Butler and No. 19 Arkansas. Then starting on Jan. 24 Tennessee began to skid off the Smoky Mountains.
The Vols lost nine of 11. One of those wins came against Vanderbilt, Tennessee’s second-round opponent.
Conference Tournament Outlook
So, yes, Tennessee did managed to beat Vandy back on Feb. 11, 76-73, in overtime.
Josh Richardson erupted for 27 points in that win. The senior guard shot 10-of-18 from the field in that game.
Richardson make it happen for the Vols. He averaged 15.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game this year.
No. 9: Alabama
6 of 14
Odds: 45-1
Regular-Season Recon
Alabama doesn’t necessarily do any one thing well. It ranks 189th in points per game with 66.9. The Crimson Tide hold their opponents to 63.9 points per game, good 105th in the country.
Bama’s signature win of the season came back in December when it beat UCLA at home. Beyond that, the only teams in the SEC Alabama beat were Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri, Mississippi State, Auburn and South Carolina.
Conference Tournament Outlook
Alabama gets Florida to open up the tournament, a team it lost to by two points back in January.
Both teams failed to make any positive impact in the conference, and if Alabama is to win, Rodney Cooper will need to have another strong game. He scored 14 points and pulled down five boards and shot 5-of-8 from the field.
No. 8: Florida
7 of 14
Odds: 45-1
Regular-Season Recon
Florida just never got it going in the 2014-15 season. Many of its games were painful losses by five points or less.
It’s hard to believe that Billy Donovan had Florida in the Final Four a year ago, but this is the nature of rebuilding. Donovan never built a house this season, but the hope is that he laid down the foundation for a better tomorrow.
Conference Tournament Outlook
Donovan is a big-time coach, and he gets Alabama in the first round. Florida won by two points back on Jan. 27. That came during a stretch of nine games where Florida won just twice.
The Gators’ games are almost always close (the exception being the regular-season finale against Kentucky, a 67-50 drubbing).
It’s anybody’s guess which side of a two-point swing Florida will be on.
No. 7: Vanderbilt
8 of 14
Odds: 35-1
Regular-Season Recon
Vanderbilt sits alone in fourth place in the SEC with a 9-9 record. That’s a solid recovery given how poorly Vandy started.
It beat Auburn to start conference play and then lost seven in a row. Vandy played just two games against ranked opponents this year: Arkansas and Kentucky, both losses.
Once Vandy got on its feet, it managed to win eight of its final 10 regular-season games.
Conference Tournament Outlook
Vandy gets Tennessee in its opening-round game. On Feb. 11, Tennessee won by three points in overtime.
“That was tough to swallow," Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "I thought we executed poorly at the end and in overtime. The story of the game was our missed free throws, especially toward the end of the game."
Led by Damian Jones and Riley LaChance, Vandy will have its work cut out for itself just to advance to past its first game.
No. 6: Ole Miss
9 of 14
Odds: 35-1
Regular Season Recon
Like Texas A&M, Ole Miss lost three of its final four games. Unlike Texas A&M, none of Ole Miss’s losses were to ranked teams. That final loss to Vanderbilt stings.
But the Rebels have Stefan Moody, a player averaging 16.6 points per game. He dropped 29 points in a win against Mississippi State and 25 in a win over Alabama.
Ole Miss, like Texas A&M, took Kentucky to overtime way back on Jan. 6 and had a chance late to tie it.
Conference Tournament Outlook
Ole Miss will get the winner of the South Carolina/Missouri game, two teams that Ole Miss beat by a combined 22 points.
Ole Miss may win a game. It’s good enough to beat the bottom dwellers but can’t hang with the top half of the conference.
Losses to LSU, Arkansas and Georgia proved that.
No. 5: Texas A&M
10 of 14
Odds: 25-1
Regular-Season Recon
Texas A&M is log-jammed with a handful of teams in third place in the SEC.
The regular season didn't end particularly well for the Aggies. They lost three of their last four games to No. 18 Arkansas, Florida and Alabama. That’s not a strong finish.
It seems like a long, long time ago (two months precisely) when the Aggies took Kentucky to double overtime and nearly rendered this whole undefeated talk moot.
Conference Tournament Outlook
As the No. 5 seed, the Aggies get the winner of the Mississippi State/Auburn game. A&M was a combined 3-0 against those teams this year.
After that it’s on to LSU where A&M also won. If A&M beats LSU, it’s a rematch with Kentucky.
No. 4: LSU
11 of 14
Odds: 22-1
Regular-Season Recon
LSU finished the regular season tied for third in the conference with an 11-7 record.
The Tigers got excellent season-long efforts out of Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey. Both forwards averaged over 16 points per game and over nine rebounds per game.
While hosting Kentucky, LSU lost by just two points.
“We've battled through some tough games this year and put ourselves in position to have a shot to win it late," LSU coach Johnny Jones said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "If you play that way throughout, some good things can happen for you. We're constantly growing, and I feel like we took some positive steps tonight. Unfortunately, we just came up a little short."
Conference Tournament Outlook
This team could be the sleeper in this tournament.
That two-headed beast of Martin and Mickey could prove a huge matchup issue.
As the No. 4 seed in the tournament, it will have to go through No. 2 seed Arkansas for a crack at Kentucky in the final.
No. 3: Georgia
12 of 14
Odds: 22-1
Regular-Season Recon
Georgia did well for itself this year. The benchmark for many of these teams is how they handled Kentucky, and Georgia gave the Wildcats some trouble.
To identify many of the teams in the SEC, you need to hold up a mirror to them during their efforts against Kentucky. At one point Georgia was up 56-49 with under 10 minutes to play.
Marcus Thornton, Georgia’s 6’8” senior forward, said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com) after the game, "We did some good things, some really good things. We just didn't play perfect enough to win."
That stings.
Conference Tournament Outlook
If the Bulldogs play how they did against Kentucky, then they can advance far in this tournament.
Then you look back at their schedule and you see two losses to South Carolina and a loss to Auburn, even Georgia Tech to open the season. These aren’t good losses.
It all depends on which team decides to show up in Nashville.
No. 2: Arkansas
13 of 14
Odds: 20-1
Regular-Season Recon
The Razorbacks finished the regular season winning eight of their last 10 games. One of those losses was against Kentucky, the other in the season finale at home to LSU.
Arkansas earned a No. 2 seed in the tournament and gets to sit back until Friday.
Bobby Portis has been the surprise star for the Razorbacks. The sophomore has averaged 17.8 points and 8.7 boards per game.
Even in a 17-point loss to Kentucky, Portis managed to shoot 6-of-11 from the field for 15 points.
Conference Tournament Outlook
As a No. 2 seed in a weak SEC, Arkansas could grind its way into the championship game for another tilt with Kentucky.
It will need one of those classic March Madness efforts from Portis. Take CBSSports.com’s Sam Vecenie’s take:
"Now, I'm sure he's a nice guy off the court. Heck, I’ve been told that once he's off the floor he's a really awesome guy. But once he steps in between those lines of a basketball court, Portis provides pure, unbridled intensity for Arkansas that few can match, and I mean that in the best way.
"
Kentucky’s defense could be too much, but Portis is Arkansas' best shot at winning this tournament. Maybe its only shot.
No. 1: Kentucky
14 of 14
Odds: 1-2
Regular-Season Recon
The Wildcats finished the regular season an amazing 31-0. They did with a platoon system that saw many of their top players play 60 percent of the minutes they normally would.
The only thing that could stress the fabric of coach John Calipari’s new approach was losing, and Kentucky hasn’t lost. All those smiles? That’s what you call a job well done.
“I want to tell you all, no one will steal my joy,” Calipari said on ESPN.com. “If you want to attack what we’re doing, be nasty about it, have at it. You’re not stealing my joy. Coaching, with these kinds of kids, you’re not stealing my joy.”
Conference Tournament Outlook
No one strained too many brain cells figuring this one out.
It's not different for Kentucky in this tournament and its final games. Every opponent wants to be the one to say, "We knocked off Kentucky."
As Calipari has said before, Kentucky’s worst enemy is itself. No one in the SEC can and will threaten the Wildcats. They see the end and 40-0 looks awful good.
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