NCAA Tournament 2015: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 17

The NCAA tournament bubble has burst for some teams, while others have moved into a more secure standing.

Some teams that have been on the bubble for much of the season, like Ohio State and even Jekyll-and-Hyde North Carolina State or Tulsa, now look to be on solid ground. That said, stumbling on the final weekend of the regular season or in an upcoming conference tournament isn't advised.

There are teams in gray, fuzzy areas in every major conference, and even some of the not-so-major ones. For Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com, "The Big East is the clubhouse favorite in the race to tie off any and all bubble suspense."

Read on to see whose stock is up or down this week, based on the latest developments on the court, the latest RPI and strength-of-schedule rankings, and well, our own expertise.

 

RPI and SOS numbers on the following slides are courtesy of ESPN.com and are current through the start of play on Thursday, March 5, as are all win-loss records.

Stock Up: Brigham Young Cougars

Young Kwak/Associated Press

BYU left the court happy after a big road win at Gonzaga last Saturday.

By the Numbers: 23-8, RPI: 43, SOS: 80

RPI Top 25 Wins: at Gonzaga

Bad Losses: at San Diego

Since Last Update: W 82-69 at Portland; W 73-70 at Gonzaga

Since losing at Pepperdine on Feb. 5, the Cougars have reeled off six consecutive wins. That was capped by last Saturday's 73-70 win over Gonzaga, which had been the third-ranked team in the country and unbeaten in the West Coast Conference.

While BYU has eight losses, including getting swept in the season series by 17-12 Pepperdine, none of the defeats has been by more than seven points. BYU lost to always tough San Diego State in double-overtime on a neutral court, lost in overtime to Purdue on a neutral court, came within four points of beating nationally ranked Utah and lost to Gonzaga by a mere seven points the first time the two teams met.

Yes, the Cougars can't fall flat on their faces in the West Coast tournament. But the win at Gonzaga now means they might not have to win it to secure entry into the NCAA tourney.

Stock Down: Indiana Hoosiers

Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Indiana once seemed a lock for the NCAA tourney, but now that's not so certain.

By the Numbers: 19-11; RPI: 52; SOS: 35

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. SMU; vs. Maryland

Bad Losses: vs. Eastern Washington; at Northwestern

Since Last Update: L at Northwestern 72-65; L vs. Iowa 77-63

It wasn't long ago that the Hoosiers seemed a lock to make the NCAA field. After seven losses in their last 11 games, that's no longer necessarily the case. Particularly stinging was last week's loss on the road to Northwestern, a team that was under .500 at the time and even after the win owns an RPI of 108.

In his latest projections, ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi had Indiana as one of the "last four in." That could change with a home loss to Michigan State in Indiana's regular-season finale this Saturday, followed by a quick exit in the Big Ten tournament that follows.

While that doesn't seem likely, just a couple of weeks ago it didn't seem likely anyone would even be bringing up this possibility.

Stock Up: Temple Owls

Associated Press

Temple is fighting to prove it belongs in the NCAA field, and it seems to be winning the fight.

By the Numbers: 21-9; RPI: 41; SOS: 62

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. Kansas

Bad Losses: at Saint Joseph's; vs. UNLV

Since Last Update: W 66-54 vs. Houston; W 70-56 at East Carolina

Yes, Temple went 1-5 against SMU, Tulsa and Cincinnati, the three best teams from a rather weak American Athletic Conference that might not send more than two teams to the NCAA tournament. And yes, Temple's 25-point win over Kansas was a long time ago (three days before Christmas, to be exact).

That said, the win over the Jayhawks still looms large in the big picture, plus Temple has an RPI of 41. Heading into a regular-season home finale against surging Connecticut this Saturday after routing East Carolina on the road Thursday night, all the Owls need to do is avoid a letdown the rest of the way.

Transfers Jesse Morgan and Devin Coleman are the real deal, and it should be noted that Morgan was sick with the flu during recent losses to SMU and Tulsa. But Morgan is healthy now, as is the entire team, prompting Mike Gibson of Rant Sports to recently note, "The health of a team and how well they play down the stretch carries a lot of weight with the selection committee. If the Owls win their next two, they will finish the (regular) season winning 10 of 12."

ESPN's Lunardi currently has Temple as one of the last four teams in the field of 68, but this club has the time, opportunity and talent to improve on that position.

Stock Down: Pittsburgh Panthers

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon could not believe what was happening in a recent loss to Miami (Fla.).

By the Numbers: 19-12; RPI: 59; SOS: 37

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. North Carolina; vs. Notre Dame

Bad Losses: at Hawaii; at Virginia Tech; at Wake Forest

Since Last Update: L 69-66 at Wake Forrest; L 67-63 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Pittsburgh's stock has been like a roller coaster. One week after surging upward, Pitt took two steps backward with back-to-back losses at Wake Forest and at home to a Miami (Fla.) team on the NCAA bubble.

Now the Panthers not only need to win their regular-season finale at Florida State this Saturday but need at least one win, and possibly two, in the ACC tournament. It looks like they'll have to face another hot-and-cold NCAA bubble team in North Carolina State in the first round.

When hot, the Wolfpack have proved they can beat some of the top teams in the nation (they also beat the Panthers soundly, 68-50, in their only meeting this year on NC State's home floor).

Pitt has beaten North Carolina, Notre Dame and Syracuse in this strange season. So the Panthers can play well too; they just might not have enough time left to prove that definitively to the NCAA selection committee.

Stock Up: UCLA Bruins

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

It's getting late in the season, but UCLA is starting to show some muscle.

By the Numbers: 19-12; RPI: 50; SOS: 32

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. Utah

Bad Losses: to Kentucky by 39 on neutral court; at Utah (by 32); at Colorado

Since Last Update: W 86-66 vs. Washington; W 72-67 vs. Washington State; W 85-74 vs. USC

UCLA's season hasn't been pretty at times.

Nothing illustrates that more than the Bruins' two games against nationally ranked Utah. They lost 71-39 on the road on Jan. 4, but then beat the Utes 69-59 in a rematch played in the friendly confines of Pauley Pavilion before the month was out.

A five-game losing streak starting in the middle of December, during which the Bruins lost to No. 1 Kentucky by the embarrassing score of 83-44 on a neutral court in Chicago, seemed to rattle the team's self-confidence to its core.

More recent back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Arizona seemed to all but snuff out UCLA's chances of making the NCAA tournament, which isn't aided by a 1-6 record against teams inside the top 25 in RPI.

Nonetheless, the Bruins, who are offensively challenged at times against the better teams, have put together a nice little three-game winning streak to close out their regular season and head into the Pac-12 tournament with some momentum. Yes, the three wins all came at home against the bottom-feeders of the Pac-12, so there is a limit to how much it really means.

But now armed with a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed, one more win will secure advancement to at least the Pac-12 semifinals and should do the trick to get them into the NCAAs.

"We've still got work to do, just like a lot of teams in the country," coach Steve Alford told the Los Angeles Times. "You can't stop."

Stock Down: Purdue Boilermakers

Associated Press

Purdue coach Matt Painter had a NCAA bid in his hands until recent back-to-back Big Ten losses.

By the Numbers: 19-11; RPI: 61; SOS: 67

RPI Top 25 Wins: None

Bad Losses: vs. North Florida; vs. Gardner-Webb

Since Last Update: W vs. Rutgers 92-85; L 65-61 at Ohio State; L 72-66 at Michigan State

There was a time this season when it looked like the Boilermakers' plans for the postseason were cooked. It's one thing to play a crappy nonconference schedule; it's another thing entirely to lose to some of the cream puffs that end up on the slate.

Yet after starting out the year 11-8, including horrible losses to the likes of North Florida and Gardner-Webb, coach Matt Painter's team rallied to win eight of its next nine games. That put Purdue at 19-9 overall and seemingly in good shape.

Then back-to-back losses on the road last week at Ohio State and at Michigan State set the team back once again. The Boilermakers really needed to put a win against one of those foes on their resume, as they have not beaten a single top 25 RPI foe all year. Now a loss to Illinois in Saturday's regular-season finale might also cripple Purdue's NCAA tournament chances.

"We're looking at it as this is our season," sophomore guard Kendall Stephens told Nathan Baird of jconline.com of the game against the Illini, another team fighting for its NCAA life. "It's definitely a must-win for us."

Stock Up: St. John's Red Storm

Associated Press

St. John's has rallied around coach Steve Lavin as this season has progressed.

By the Numbers: 21-9; RPI: 32; SOS: 51

RPI Top 25 Wins: Providence (twice); vs. Georgetown

Bad Losses: at DePaul; at Creighton

Since Last Update: W 81-70 vs. Georgetown; W 67-51 at Marquette

Four consecutive wins have moved St. John's to within one game of a tie for second place in the admittedly weakened but still relevant Big East. The surge has put the Red Storm within reach of virtually clinching an NCAA bid by making it five in a row in their regular-season finale.

That, however, will be no easy task. St. John's plays on the road at Villanova, ranked No. 4 in the nation in both The Associated Press poll and USA Today coaches poll, in the finale this Saturday.

"At this stage of the year, you really don't grade the wins, you just want to accumulate them and move on," coach Steve Lavin told redstormsports.com after beating Marquette.

Even if Lavin and Co. falter against a tough 'Nova squad, the Red Storm now appear to be in pretty good NCAA shape with an RPI of 32 and three total wins already against top 25 RPI teams.

Stock Down: Texas A&M Aggies

L.G. Patterson/Associated Press

Texas A&M still should be in good shape, but losses in two of the last three games haven't helped.

By the Numbers: 20-9; RPI: 48; SOS: 89

RPI Top 25 Wins: None

Bad Losses: at Florida

Since Last Update: W 80-55 vs. Auburn; L 66-62 at Florida

Only two teams inside the top 32 in RPI (SMU and Michigan State) do not own any wins against top 25 RPI teams. Texas A&M is one of four others ranked 32 through 48 that have committed the same cardinal sin in the NCAA selection committee's eyes (the others being Georgia, Buffalo and Tulsa).

What has helped Texas A&M's case was that it did push No. 1 Kentucky to two overtimes before losing on Jan. 10 and it also did not have any bad losses.

Losing to Florida marked A&M's second loss in three games, although there was no shame in the other defeat (81-75 on the road at nationally ranked Arkansas).

To make matters possibly worse, leading scorer Danuel House, who averages nearly 15 points per game, was held scoreless against Florida, going 0-of-10 from the field (including 0-of-6 from the three-point line) and left the game with an apparent ankle injury that is still being evaluated.

Texas A&M should still be fine as long as House is. But now the Aggies cannot afford another misstep in the regular-season finale against Alabama, nor an early exit from the upcoming SEC tournament.

Stock Up: Davidson Wildcats

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Davidson Wildcats are reaching for the top in the Atlantic 10.

By the Numbers: 22-6; RPI: 33; SOS: 128

RPI Top 25 Wins: vs. VCU

Bad Losses: vs. St. Bonaventure; at Saint Joseph's

Since Last Update: W 77-66 vs. George Washington; W 82-55 vs. VCU

In one week, Davidson moved from an RPI ranking of No. 53 to 33. That's pretty good movement this time of year if you can earn it, which the Wildcats did by beating George Washington and routing VCU in a pair of home games.

Davidson entered Thursday's game against a fading VCU team needing to win both that contest and Saturday's road game at Duquesne to capture the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship in its first year in the league. With the lopsided loss, VCU fell to 4-6 in its first 10 games since losing defensive stalwart Briante Weber for the season.

Meanwhile, Davidson has benefited big time from the return of its own point guard, Jack Gibbs, from arthroscopic knee surgery that cost him seven games earlier this season. Gibbs is now second on the team in scoring (15.8 PPG), first in assists (4.9) and first in both three-point percentage (.427) and free-throw percentage (.888). Only a sophomore, he very well might end up being the best player the Wildcats have had since Stephen Curry.

Asked recently by The Charlotte Observer's Scott Fowler how good Gibbs could be, Davidson coach Bob McKillop replied, "Pretty darn good. He's one of the best we've had."

The big win against VCU also gave McKillop and his team the best win they've had this season and their first against a top 25 RPI opponent.

Stock Down: Georgia Bulldogs

Associated Press

Georgia had a season-defining win in its sights versus Kentucky but let it slip away.

By the Numbers: 19-10; RPI: 34; SOS: 26

RPI Top 25 Wins: None

Bad Losses: vs. Auburn; South Carolina (twice); at Georgia Tech

Since Last Update: W 68-44 vs. Missouri; L 72-64 vs. Kentucky

Certainly there is no disgrace in losing to No. 1-ranked and unbeaten Kentucky this season. But Georgia actually had the Wildcats on the ropes with less than five minutes remaining last Tuesday.

"We did some good things, some really good things," Georgia's Marcus Thornton told the Associated Press. "We just didn't play perfect enough to win."

Has Georgia done enough to earn an NCAA bid, despite no wins against top 25 RPI teams and a total of four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100? The Bulldogs' own RPI ranking of 34 bodes well for their chances, but they may need to win their final regular-season game at Auburn and at least one more in the SEC tournament.

Joe Menzer has written six books, including one about college basketball entitled "Four Corners," and now writes about college hoops and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as working as a writer and editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.