Wisconsin Basketball: Breaking Down Badgers' Chances to Get a No. 1 Seed

At this point of the college basketball season, if you're not playing for a bid to the NCAA tournament, you are playing for seeding.

Wisconsin has had a great year and will be rewarded for it by the selection committee, but the final positioning in the bracket is still a work in progress. With two more games remaining in the regular season plus a conference tournament, a lot can still happen.

Additionally, the Badgers' standing remains heavily reliant on what the rest of the top teams around the country do over the next two weeks. For example, Gonzaga's recent loss to BYU likely knocked the team off the top line, giving another squad a chance at ending with a No. 1 seed.

The good news for head coach Bo Ryan and company is Wisconsin is still in the running for that top spot, especially if it plays like it did in the 68-61 win over Michigan State (at least before a late run made the score closer than it was).

In all likelihood, Wisconsin will enter the tournament no lower than a No. 3 seed with a chance of being as high as a No. 1. Here is a breakdown of the chances for each spot with what would need to happen for any of this to take place.

No. 3 Seed (10 percent)

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Even if Wisconsin loses its next three games, including its first in the Big Ten tournament, it doesn't seem likely the squad would fall below this mark. It has simply been too good for too long for a late slide to undo everything else.

That being said, it isn't all that likely the Badgers finish with even a No. 3 seed. Grantland's Mark Titus recently explained how much consensus there is concerning the top eight teams in the nation:

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One of the mock selection committee’s initial tasks was for each member to vote on the top eight teams. This vote was unanimous. Every person in the room agreed that, barring a catastrophic change, the 1- and 2-seeds in this year’s NCAA tournament will be Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, and Arizona, in some order. This was a surprise to the NCAA people, who told us it’s extremely rare for the real committee to reach a unanimous vote on anything. This should tell you how big the gap is between these eight teams and the rest of the field this season. 

"

While the mock selection committee took place a couple of weeks ago, you can still see a pretty big gap between the No. 2 seeds and No. 3.

However, one team that could sneak into the mix is Maryland. The Terrapins ended Wisconsin's 10-game winning streak last week, and the two sides could potentially play again in the Big Ten tournament. If the conference newbies are able to take home a tournament title, it will be hard to argue against moving them further up in the bracket.

At the same time, if the Badgers lose on the road to either Minnesota or Ohio State and then fall in the conference tournament, they could end up being the team that drops.

Though this is not a likely scenario, it is certainly possible and worth a concern for fans.

No. 2 Seed (60 percent)

USA TODAY Sports

This seems to be the most likely destination for Wisconsin based on what we have seen this season. Even with Gonzaga's loss, the fight for that No. 1 seed is fierce, especially if you assume Kentucky, Virginia and Duke get the top three spots.

ESPN broke down the top contenders for the last spot:

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Wisconsin moved to 26-3 & picked up its third BPI top 25 win. Which team has the strongest case for a No. 1 seed? pic.twitter.com/aPGuoSPXdN

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 2, 2015"

The problem for Wisconsin has been the Big Ten's overall struggles, which have prevented more teams from appearing as quality wins. According to ESPN.com, the squad only has two Top 25 RPI wins all year, and both of them came in the Battle 4 Atlantis against Georgetown and Oklahoma.

Compare this to Villanova, which has a 6-1 record against the Top 25 and 10-1 record against the top 50, and it appears as though the Wildcats played a much tougher schedule. This is not Wisconsin's fault, but that's how it plays out.

Another issue is that the selection committee has proved in the past it cares more about big wins compared to bad losses. This is why Duke remains in line for a No. 1 seed despite some bad losses in conference play.

Translate this to Arizona's profile, which has three questionable losses but a season sweep over Utah and an overtime win versus Gonzaga, and the squad could end up higher in the pecking order than Wisconsin.

Of course, the biggest problem is the schedule, which remains difficult for the Badgers the rest of the way through. One loss in either remaining regular-season battle or early in the conference tourney, and they can probably kiss a top seed good bye. 

The status quo puts Wisconsin at the No. 2 seed, and it will be hard to change that over the next couple of weeks.

No. 1 Seed (30 percent) 

USA TODAY Sports

While Wisconsin can still lose in its last few games, it's important to remember that the teams currently above them can drop some games as well.

Kentucky and Virginia appear to be pretty safe, as even a loss or two wouldn't take away the massive breathing room at the top. However, just about anyone else is capable of falling in the bracket.

Duke already has three losses with two of them coming by double digits. If the Blue Devils lose again to anyone besides Virginia in the ACC tournament final, they could easily be subjected to a No. 2 seed. Even the wins over Wisconsin and Virginia won't make up for bad losses.

At the same time, the Badgers would certainly prove themselves as an elite squad if they were able to win out and secure both a regular-season and tournament title in the Big Ten. 

Seth Davis of CBS Sports questioned their chances of earning a No. 1 seed after the recent loss at Maryland:

Though the best true road win came at Iowa, a win at Ohio State would certainly make the profile look better. Adding this to some impressive performances on a neutral floor both at the Battle 4 Atlantis and presumably in the conference tournament, there should be no doubts about what this team can do away from the Kohl Center.

The selection committee could also end up almost ignoring the loss to Rutgers, which came without Player of the Year favorite Frank Kaminsky. This is a big reason why Wisconsin ranks No. 3 in the country in ESPN.com's BPI, a system that accounts for player injuries as well as margin of victory.

If Wisconsin can go on to win the Big Ten tournament and receive some help with teams like Villanova, Duke and Arizona losing, the Badgers would be able to stick with preseason expectations and go into March Madness with a No. 1 seed.

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