Preview and Predictions for Premier Boxing Champions' 1st Card on NBC
It will be like the golden ages of boxing all over again on Saturday night, as the sweet science returns to prime-time network television. The Premier Boxing Champions will debut from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, featuring some of the biggest rising stars in the sport.
Three-division world champions Abner Mares and Adrien Broner will attempt to remain in the win column against hungry gatekeepers John Molina and Arturo Santos Reyes. In the main event, undefeated welterweight contender Keith Thurman will face the first major test of his career in tough veteran Robert Guerrero.
With Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao finally getting made, boxing is receiving more mainstream attention than it has in years. The success of the PBC series will be critical to keeping the sport in the spotlight.
Tale of the Tape for Abner Mares vs. Arturo Santos Reyes
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| Per Boxrec | Abner Mares | Arturo Santos Reyes |
| Record: | 28-1-1, 15 KOs | 18-4, 5 KOs |
| Height: | 5'4.5" | 5'4" |
| Reach: | 66" | Unlisted |
| Weight: | 126 lbs | 126 lbs |
| Age: | 29 | 29 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Montebello, California | Nogales, Sonora |
| Rounds: | 218 | 167 |
Abner Mares is a three-division world champion and the far more experienced fighter. He's been in the ring with at least a half dozen world champions.
But Reyes has been in tough bouts as well. His last fight was a decision loss to former WBA featherweight champion Simpiwe Vetyeka. In 2012, he fought to a split-decision loss against Fernando Montiel.
Mares should definitely win this fight. But it's unlikely to be a walkover.
Tale of the Tape for Adrien Broner vs. John Molina
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| Per Boxrec | Adrien Broner | John Molina |
| Record: | 29-1, 22 KOs | 27-5, 22 KOs |
| Height: | 5'6.5" | 5'10.5" |
| Reach: | 69.5" | 71" |
| Weight: | 140 lbs | 140 lbs |
| Age: | 25 | 32 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Cincinnati | Covina, California |
| Rounds: | 144 | 138 |
Molina is the taller and longer fighter, but Broner will look to finesse that with his superior speed and athleticism. Both of these guys have pop in their fists.
Broner and Molina share a common opponent in Antonio DeMarco. DeMarco caught Molina flat in September 2012 and knocked him out in 44 seconds. Two months later, Broner battered DeMarco and stopped him in Round 8.
Tale of the Tape for Keith Thurman vs. Robert Guerrero
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| Per Boxrec | Keith Thurman | Robert Guerrero |
| Record: | 24-0, 21 KOs | 32-2-1, 18 KOs |
| Height: | 5'7.5" | 5'8" |
| Reach: | 69" | 70" |
| Weight: | 147 lbs | 147 lbs |
| Age: | 26 | 31 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Hometown: | Clearwater, Florida | Gilroy, California |
| Rounds: | 93 | 237 |
Robert Guerrero might have a slight edge in height and reach, but he's a former featherweight. Keith Thurman is the naturally bigger and stronger man.
Guerrero's edge in experience here is huge. The Ghost is a multiple-division champion who has fought at the world-championship level for most of the past decade. This is Thurman's first trip into those deep waters.
Thurman's biggest advantage in this one is power. He is known as One Time because he can end a fight with one punch.
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Main Storylines
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Above everything else, the main storyline for this card is the return of boxing to network television. In previous eras, boxing was a television staple. But in more recent years, it has largely become a fringe sport, existing primarily on premium cable.
Boxing fans old enough to remember the sport's glory days have dreamed of the day when the sweet science would come back to mainstream television.
Boxing power broker Al Haymon has put together a good card for the Premier Boxing Championship debut. Abner Mares and Adrien Broner are both three-division world champions who took setback losses in 2013, with Mares getting knocked out by Jhonny Gonzalez in August and Broner being hammered via unanimous decision by Marcos Maidana in December.
They will both look to keep their comeback journeys going Saturday against live underdogs. John Molina is a big puncher and can make his career soar with a win over Broner. Arturo Santos Reyes is a gutsy fighter who will look to make life difficult for Mares.
But the big story for this card is the main event, which has major significance for the ultra-competitive welterweight division. Keith Thurman has been one of the sport's hottest fighters over the past two years and has looked like a potential superstar.
He's never faced an opponent like Robert Guerrero, though. Guerrero is a multiple-division champion who has won some thrilling wars.
Guerrero was in a Fight of the Year candidate in 2012 against Andre Berto and again last year against Yoshihiro Kamegai. Guerrero vs. Thurman is another bout with that kind of potential.
Strengths
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Abner Mares is a solid technical boxer who brawls well. He has fought for a long time at a high level.
Arturo Santos Reyes is a busy and aggressive fighter who applies pressure. While he hasn't fought the murderers' row that Mares has, he does have experience against world-class opposition.
Adrien Broner is a three-division world champion. He has good boxing skill and explosive speed and athleticism.
John Molina has a long frame for the junior welterweight division and uses it to generate dangerous power. He's an experienced fighter who comes forward with determination and puts himself in position to win.
Keith Thurman is a dangerous puncher with fight-ending power in both hands. But he's also a skilled boxer, capable of adjusting to the unique problems his opponent presents.
Robert Guerrero is an experienced fighter, having competed at the world-championship level for nearly a decade. He has tricky versatility with the ability to box technically and brawl aggressively.
Weaknesses
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Abner Mares often fights in a wide-open stance, leaving him vulnerable to getting hit. Jhonny Gonzalez caught him in August 2013 via Round 1 KO.
Arturo Santos Reyes has just five knockouts in 22 fights. A lack of dangerous power could make it difficult for him to deal with Mares' mauling style.
Adrien Broner got pummeled by Marcos Maidana in December 2013, because he failed to throw enough punches to keep the aggressive Argentine off from him. He did not seem physically and mentally prepared to grind it out against an opponent whom he couldn't overwhelm with his physical gifts.
John Molina does not show a lot of variety in the pace of his punches, and opponents can often time him and dictate the pace of the fight. He's athletically below-average for a world-class fighter.
Keith Thurman has never faced an opponent of Robert Guerrero's quality, so there are definitely unknowns for him coming into this fight. Against Leonard Bundu in his last fight, he had some minor difficulty dealing with Bundu's idiosyncratic style.
Robert Guerrero has been through some brutal wars in his career. At 31, he has a lot of miles on his odometer. He is a former featherweight, while Thurman is a bigger, stronger man with more dangerous power than anybody The Ghost has previously faced.
Keys to Victory for Abner Mares vs. Arturo Santos Reyes
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On the surface, this looks like the biggest mismatch on the card. It's not that Arturo Santos Reyes is a chump, but Abner Mares is among the sport's most accomplished active boxers. Reyes' lack of dangerous power is going to make it easier for Mares to employ his busy, mauling style.
While Reyes lacks the power of Jhonny Gonzalez, he should look to time Mares the same way Gonzalez did in order to land a lead left hook when Mares has his right hand low. He should feint to the body in order to draw Mares' hand down.
It's hard to imagine Reyes dropping Mares hard the way Gonzalez did, but that's still the opening he should look for.
Mares should swarm Reyes and take away his room to maneuver. Mares is the better technical boxer, so he should be able to control the angles and tempo of the exchanges as he moves inside.
This fight will be a fast-paced, back-and-forth battle. The fighter who can get off first with his jab will control the pace.
Keys to Victory for Adrien Broner vs. John Molina
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Adrien Broner is the favorite here, but John Molina is a live dog. He should look to take advantage of his length by throwing hard jab-cross combos straight down the middle in order to catch Broner coming forward.
Molina should look to pivot on his lead foot and slide back onto his rear foot, while throwing the straight right, to keep the space of the exchanges at long range. He needs to throw a lot of punches at Broner and as many as possible from outside of Broner's range.
The key to winning this fight for Broner is activity level. He needs to forget about "putting on a show" and be prepared for a real fight. Instead of trying to copy Mayweather's sharpshooter style, Broner should play the busy, fast-paced young lion.
Broner is a quick, agile fighter and should use feints and head movement to slip inside on Molina. Once he's in range, he needs to unload with multiple-punch flurries.
He should not expect Molina to go away easily. He needs to be ready to grind out a tough win.
Keys to Victory for Keith Thurman vs. Robert Guerrero
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Robert Guerrero is going to attempt to confuse Keith Thurman with a variety of looks. He'll box technically on the outside, but he'll attempt to mug Thurman when they get in close. Expect to see Guerrero skirting the rule book in an attempt to frustrate Thurman and make him lose his focus.
Thurman needs to stay patient and look for his spots. He has a definitive power edge over Guerrero, and that can put him even in a hurry.
Thurman needs to stay aware of the fact that he's fighting a southpaw. Guerrero will look to slip his own lead foot to the outside, so he can take away Thurman's straight right. Guerrero will look to time his own straight left when Thurman is trying to get off with his big lead hook.
Thurman should try to touch Guerrero early and force the veteran to respect his power. But Guerrero is a warrior, so Thurman should be prepared to deal with The Ghost standing up to him with a lot more confidence than previous opponents have.
Predictions
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I will be surprised if Abner Mares comes up short against Arturo Santos Reyes. Mares will win by one-sided decision, and it will hopefully set up a big fight with Leo Santa Cruz for later in the year.
I won't be shocked if John Molina manages to pull off the upset against Adrien Broner. Molina is a dangerous fighter, and Broner has shown plenty of signs of being less than committed to the sport. If he comes into this fight taking Molina lightly, he'll be ripe for a loss.
But picking Broner to lose here means writing him off as a serious star. I'm not prepared to do that yet for a fighter with his talent. This is a crucial moment in his career, and he will rise to the occasion and beat Molina by late stoppage.
Of the three fights, I'm most torn when it comes to Keith Thurman vs. Robert Guerrero. Guerrero is an experienced star. He's a physically and mentally tough warrior.
But I've been hyping Thurman for at least two years now, so I can hardly jump off the bandwagon on him now, as he's coming into his first major test. He's the younger, more powerful fighter and has the skills and intelligence to press those advantages.
Thurman will win a bruising, hard-fought decision—eight rounds to four.
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